Ukraine says long-anticipated southern offensive has begun

[muriel_volestrangler]

Source: Reuters

The Ukrainian military on Monday started a long-awaited counter-offensive against Russian forces in the country's south, its southern command said on Monday.

Command spokesperson Natalia Humeniuk confirmed the offensive in a news briefing and said it included the Kherson region.

Ukraine has regularly stated its intention to retake its south, and in particular the city of Kherson, the only regional capital that Russia has been able to capture from Ukraine since it invaded six months ago.
...
Humeniuk said at the briefing that recent strikes on Russia's southern logistical routes had "unquestionably weakened the enemy". More than 10 Russian ammunition dumps had been hit over the last weeks.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-says-long-anticipated-southern-offensive-has-begun-2022-08-29/

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Ukrainian forces have begun "shaping" operations in southern Ukraine to prepare the battlefield for a significant Ukrainian counteroffensive, two senior US officials briefed on the intelligence told CNN.

Shaping operations are standard military practice prior to an offensive and involve striking weapons systems, command and control, ammunition depots and other targets to prepare the battlefield for planned advances.
The US believes the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which has long been anticipated, will include a combination of air and ground operations.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/29/politics/ukraine-shaping-counteroffensive/index.html

According to an operational group of Ukrainian troops, “Kakhovka,” on August 29, the Armed Forces of Ukraine broke through the occupying force’s first line of defense near Kherson, and the 109th DPR regiment withdrew from its positions. Russian paratroopers, who were the DPR regiment’s support, also fled the battlefield.

“Ukraine has a brilliant chance to regain the territories, with the help of HIMARS. Almost all the large bridges in Kherson have already been destroyed – the Russian army have been cut off from the supply of weapons and personnel from Crimea,” the message stated.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have launched offensive actions in many directions in the south of Ukraine, the head of the joint press center of the Security and Defense Forces “South”, Nataliya Humenyuk, announced on Ukrainian T.V. news.

Explosions can be heard throughout Kherson region. Massive attacks on Russian bases in Beryslav and Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Region, have been recorded. There are also reports of strikes on Russian infantry.

https://www.kyivpost.com/russias-war/ukrainian-counteroffensive-underway-in-kherson-region.html

[Lovie777]

1. Here's hoping for success! ....

Here's hoping that their Intel are up to date and verifiable.

[multigraincracker]

2. Good luck to the

brave Freedom Fighters.

[iluvtennis]

11. Ditto! n/t

[GregariousGroundhog]

3. Glory to the heroes, glory to Ukraine!

[ananda]

4. Good for them!

!!!

[TFRD]

5. Glory to Ukraine!!!

.......🇺🇦.......

(~÷)
Tony!

[3Hotdogs]

6. Time to kick some ass.

6 months ago, I thought There was no hope for Ukraine.

[Warpy]

19. I thought the full might of the Russian army would roll right over them

I was wrong about that, Ukraine was more prepared for this than I thought and fought a smart defensive war.

I also knew that whatever territory Russia grabbed, they'd never be able to keep it, that Ukraine would resist and bleed them dry.

Looks like I was right about that part.

I knew when they used an antitank missile to shoot down a helicopter gunship that Russia was screwed.

[LiberalFighter]

7. Anihilate the Russians.

[colorado_ufo]

8. This fight is yours, Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

[OMGWTF]

9. FINISH THEM!

[Bayard]

10. Keep going south!

Take back Crimea.

[Duppers]

12. Indeed! 👍

[yowzayowzayowza]

13. Nice. n/t

[electric_blue68]

14. 🌻🇺🇦🌻

[orangecrush]

15. Save Ukraine

Their fight is our fight

[Bev54]

16. They must have been doing something in Donetsk as well

I usually have the webcams on during the evening here, which is middle of the night to early morning in Ukraine and at first I thought maybe thunder because in Kharkiv there was thunder and lightning along with some shelling. But there was no storm in Donetsk. The shelling usually stops around daybreak but the booms were extremely loud and constant when I went to bed and it was 9am there. Extremely close to where the audio was because they were setting off car alarms and would knock out the audio for a few minutes. Not sure how long it went on, about 5 hours when I left. These cameras are in Russian held territory.

[LiberalLovinLug]

17. Just yesterday I heard about how Russia was about to launch a renewed offensive in Donbas

The fog of war.

[Xolodno]

24. And this counter offensive was supposed to have happened over a month ago.

The fog of war indeed.

From what I read, British intelligence doesn't believe Ukraine can sustain it (they also, as of right now, don't believe Russia with this military division can push much forward, hence why they moved to a defensive mode). They'll get some territory back, but, retaking Kherson, is not likely. The fact they used the HIMARS to take down a critical and remaining bridge, one which they will need later if they wanted to go further, telegraphs what they expect.

As for a renewed Russian offensive, they have been training paratroopers, troops, etc. in Belarus. And they are holding war games with China and India soon:

https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/russia-to-hold-sweeping-joint-war-games-with-china-india-others/

Its also rumored they have quietly mobilized 90k troops. Equipment from Syria is now being relocated to Crimea since its a frozen conflict. There are a lot of signs of a renewed offensive, but when? Some have speculated it will be in winter. In the Donbass, its just been mainly recon units engaging each other.

And as for the end of this war? German, French & British have changed their estimates from within a year, to several years.

[LiberalLovinLug]

25. Several years if this push for Kherson fails

If Ukraine is successful, and we’ve learned not to underestimate their determination, I listened to a Vindman piece where he predicted it will be a severe setback for Russia and maybe even force Putin to consider negotiating and end the war sooner. Which is why it’s worth the gamble

[Mysterian]

18. The courageous Ukranians are an inspiration to freedom-loving people

I hope their fight is successful!

[Torchlight]

20. Hopefully, the counter-offensive will deplete Russian morale

(as well as munitions, arms and bodies) as Moscow begins fighting on the defensive in hostile, partisan-occupied terrain.

[Qutzupalotl]

21. UKR asks us to go dark with posting videos of combat for a while

Link to tweet

🚨 URGENT & CRITICAL: Armed Forces of Ukraine are requesting that everyone go dark on posting any information, videos, photos, with regards to the Battle for Kherson. Operation Security is critical. Please spread this message across all social media channels.

[Irish_Dem]

22. Loose lips sink ships.

Time for everyone to comply with this request.

[niyad]

23. Slava Ukraini! Thank you for the update.