Georgia breaks first-day early voting record, nearly doubles figure from last midterms

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

Source: CNBC

Turnout from Georgia's first day of early voting set a new state record for a midterm election, nearly doubling the figure from the same time period in the previous midterms, state election officials said Tuesday.

More than 131,000 Georgia voters cast ballots since early voting began Monday, according to the office of Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. The figure represents an 85% boost over the 2018 midterms, when nearly 71,000 early votes were cast on Day One, the office said.

Georgia's latest tally is also nearly as large as the state's first day of early voting in the 2020 presidential election — 136,739 in that contest versus 131,318 in the current cycle, Raffensperger's office said. Turnout tends to be much higher when the presidency is on the ballot.

Absentee ballots cast Monday totaled 11,759, bringing Georgia's total turnout so far to 143,077, the office said.

Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/georgia-breaks-first-day-early-voting-record-nearly-doubles-figure-from-last-midterms/ar-AA136CEV?cvid=5306ed5fbe9d4b5d99a99e165aa2f4d1

[cilla4progress]

1. Bodes well!

Historically!

[IronLionZion]

2. I hope it's Dems turning out

the MAGA crowd distrusts voting by mail

[Fresh_Start]

19. for whatever its worth...I was texting to Georgian's yesterday

and had 7-8 say that they had already voted. It was a list of democratic supporters....

[onetexan]

3. K&R!!

[BlueGreenLady]

4. Woo! Hoo!

[left-of-center2012]

5. You know the saying

Don't count your chickens before they hatch

[Zambero]

21. The early chicken hatch report sounds very encouraging

[Farmer-Rick]

22. Exactly

Everyone counts their chickens before they hatch. Otherwise how would you know how many eggs to incubate?

Only 1 or 2 don't hatch, at least under my chickens.

Anyway, large turnout for early voting must be good for Dems, otherwise Trump wouldn't have tried to stop as much early voting as he could. GOPers want to dwindle down the number of early voting days to nothing.

In TN, they found out that the week before the election had the most early votes. So, what do they do? Open up hours and expand early voting? No, no, no, they cancelled the week before the election early voting. Just stopped it all together. So now we early vote up until a week before the November election day then....no voting for over a week. There is this very weird pause in voting so the GOP can suppress as many votes as possible. They don't want early voting because it's Not GOPers coming out to vote in early election.

[honest.abe]

6. This is a very good sign.

When we vote we win.

[HotRod Deluxe]

7. Hoping...

Let's hope Katie gets her due!

[SheltieLover]

8. Wow!

Keep it up, GA Dems!

[The Protagonist]

9. Wow!!

Imagine the number if Black voters weren't being suppressed!!

[kellytore]

10. And 57% of newly registered voters in Georgia since 2020

are women. On a side note, when people are polled they usually ask if you voted in the last election. With most pollsters if you answer no they usually will not poll you since you are not considered a likely voter. This could mean the polls will be dead wrong and the democrats win the senate and governors race.

[Genki Hikari]

15. I'm curious to know which poll

Reflects the assertion about registered voters who haven't exercised their right in the past not being polled based on that factor alone.

Do you have evidence of that?

I mean, it's not like pollsters aren't aware that their polls might be skewed if they rely solely on the answer to that question to gauge a likely voter. These are math geeks. They tend not to be dumb.

My experience has been that pollsters prefer avoiding anything that skew their results. So I'd like to see evidence that a pollster relies solely on voted/not voted in the past as an indicator of a likely voter.

[Genki Hikari]

16. And I'd actually be curious to see that evidence in light of this:

https://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Election-Polling-Resources/Likely-Voters.aspx

Who are likely voters? How are they identified?

Pollsters often determine likely voters by giving each respondent a score, based on his or her answers to questions that have been shown to correlate with turning out to vote, such as interest in the election or past voting behavior. They then establish a cutoff based on what they think turnout is likely to be. For example, if a pollster believes that turnout will be 60%, they would take the 60 percent of respondents with the highest scores on their question index as “likely voters.” Although many pollsters use such a scale, the component questions that go into the scale differ. This is a reason why election polls can report different results.

Research finds no single magic bullet question or set of questions that can determine likely voters with 100 percent accuracy. Thus, different organizations have different ways of identifying who they believe likely voters are. Most polls ask a combination of questions that cover self-reported vote intention and measures of engagement. In addition to past voting behavior and interest in the election, a likely voter screen may include questions to determine if the respondent is registered to vote, how likely they think they are to vote and how closely they’re following the election.

That's by the American Association for Public Opinion Research, a professional organization of pollsters.

[yellowdogintexas]

24. The Democratic party's Voter Access Network works like that

There is a VAN for each state which can be further subdivided at the precinct level. We would be lost without it.

The formulas for 'likely voters' allow precinct chairs to run formulas to find the likely voters and target them for a Get Out The Vote push. The formulas are preset and use these same formulas. It blows my mind but it is helpful. (keeps me from wasting time on obvious Republicans)

I have about 300 Democratic or Democratic leaning voters in my precinct, so we are blockwalking and sending postcards to remind them to vote. Without those crazy formulas I would have to screen out all the Republican voters myself. It's not foolproof but it is a big help.

The big problem is registered voters with no voting history and little background data. I have some that last voted in 2008. We do not register by party here; that background formula is used to (hopefully) identify voters who skip primaries.

[Farmer-Rick]

25. It's the "past voting behavior" that skews away from new voters

Most polls, use questions about past voting behavior in some form. Because past voters are very likely to vote again. So, most polls will unintentionally drop new voters because they have no history of voting.

And it is true that new unmotivated voters will say they will vote and then not vote. But if they are motivated against Roe or Trump, they will come out. That's what happened with Obama's win. A lot of motivated first time voters.

Also motivated voters will increase the turnout rate. If a poll uses a 55% turnout rate but over 60% show up to vote, then the poll will have failed to capture that 5% of motivated voters.

Also, who answers their phone from an unknown caller? Just saying phone polls are skewed to begin with.

[CTyankee]

11. Here in CT hubby and I just finished filling out our absentee ballots and will drive them down to

designated box near City Hall tomorrow. Our advanced ages and disabilities make it hard for us to vote on voting day. I don't mind driving down there. At least we know they will be counted!

[summer_in_TX]

13. Feeling envious of the easy process in CT.

In Texas the ONLY place you can hand deliver a mail-in ballot is the Elections Office, and the only day you can hand deliver it is Election Day. Those are changes as of the last legislative session.

Of course you can still take it with you to an Early Voting site and void it so you can vote in person.

[CTyankee]

26. I am constantly thanking goddess for my good fortune to live in CT

esp. now since we are old. But I am also seeing my oldest grandchild go to my home state of Texas to work and live and support Beto in Austin! That is the best thing of all!

[summer_in_TX]

30. Excellent! We need all the help we can get!

[CTyankee]

31. I have deep roots in Texas. Altho I lived in Dallas I had family in Brownwood, an uncle who was a

state senator and two cousins who were journalists, all Democrats and strongly so!

[BigmanPigman]

12. The misogynists in the GQP got their wish...

But now that they caught the car, what next?

Eat shit GQP!

[Genki Hikari]

14. If these voters are Democrats

Then Stacey Abrams deserves the lioness's share of credit for it. Her organization has been instrumental in getting people on the rolls--and keeping them there.

[gab13by13]

17. Yeah but what is Steve Kornacki saying?

[E. Normus]

18. keep a focus

on WHO is counting the votes. voting is awesome if they all get counted!

[ga_girl]

20. Georgia AIP voting counts

https://www.ajc.com/politics/early-voting/

Just under 300,000 in two days of AIP. Generally White, Older, Female.

[Arminio]

23. Let's keep Walker out of the senate

He's dangerous

[LetMyPeopleVote]

27. Updated early voting numbers are in.

Link to tweet

[Polybius]

29. That's within 40 votes of being exactly the same amount of people

Wow, so many early voters!

[nycbos]

28. Is this in GQP areas or Dem areas?

[JudyM]

32. K&R

Great start!

[ga_girl]

33. Six days of Advanced In Person and mail in ballots

Some 816,000 votes. Closing in on 10% in my county.
55% White, 54% Female, 45% 65+

[DavidDvorkin]

34. I hope this means that the likely voter screens are way off

In Georgia and everywhere else.