Democrats lead in five uncalled House races

[brooklynite]

Source: Washington Post

The AP has just called Arizona’s 9th district for Democrat Kyrsten Sinema over Republican Vernon Parker — giving Congress its first openly bisexual member. But almost a week after the election, five more House races have yet to be called. A few were among the country’s most expensive House races. Right now, Democrats lead in all five. But even if they win them all, Republicans will still hold the House by a 234 to 201 margin.

AZ-02, Ron Barber (D) vs. Martha McSally (R) +289
CA-07, Ami Bera (D) vs. Rep. Dan Lungren (R) +1,779
CA-52, Scott Peters (D) vs. Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) +1,334
FL-18, Patrick Murphy (D) vs. Rep. Allen West (R) +1,907
NC-07, Rep. Mike McIntyre (D) vs. David Rouzer (R) +420

Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/11/12/democrats-lead-in-five-uncalled-house-races/?wpisrc=nl_pmpolitics

---

I suppose conceding is out of the question?

[closeupready]

1. Concede? Have all fixes been tried?

lol

[boomer55]

2. pretty sure our third world state of floriduh has certified Patrick Murphy as the winner. n/t

[ProudProgressiveNow]

47. +1 nt

[Sekhmets Daughter]

53. Yep, by all 3 of counties through which his district runs and the state.

[Dubster]

3. Spam deleted by gkhouston (MIR Team)

[freshwest]

31. And all who signed the Nordquist pledge to effectively bring down the US Government.

And the Constitution, Bill of Rights and all those Amendements that interfere with the Koch family's plans for turning us into a libertarian hellhole.

[Voice for Peace]

37. they need an editor

A lot of billionaires are searching for answers after donating and unheard of amount of money to Crossroads GPS, which is ran by Karl Rove.

[Blasphemer]

4. 234 to 201 is impressive given the gerrymandering

As for conceding, AZ-02 and NC-07 seem to be too close for that given that there are votes still to be counted in the former and the possibility of a recount in the latter. CA-07 and CA-52 also have outstanding ballots. As for FL-18, West's idiocy is a defacto concession.

[LaPera]

16. "Gerrymandering"Exactly! And is why WE WANT ALL 5 OF THE DEM RACES that are left!!

Donate a few bucks to a Dem who needs help with republicans trying to steal the election in any of those five election countings.

Easy to donate at ActBlue
www.actblue.com

[davidpdx]

49. Yeah, we were in a weak position to deal with the census

I think if we can keep it at 200 or 201 that gives us a good starting point to start looking at who gets picked off.

[Cha]

5. Ron Barber is now ahead?! This is fantastic! Come

ON RON BARBER!

Thanks, brooklynnite

[ProudProgressiveNow]

48. +1 nt

[kestrel91316]

6. Conceding carries ZERO legal wait. We need the actual vote count to determine winners.

Last edited Mon Nov 12, 2012, 09:20 PM - Edit history (1)

ETA: That was supposed to be "weight". How embarrassing.

[Stevepol]

12. IMO the only way to get the "actual vote count"

is to hand count paper ballots.

So I'm in full agreement with your post, even if it means that Alan West actually won in FL. There, some optiscan malfunctioning supposedly deprived West of a number of votes, so he has crept closer to Murphy.

Here's what Bradblog has to say about it: http://www.bradblog.com/?p=9724#more-9724

[Exen Trik]

46. Well it *would* be quick

Heh... My addled mind does the same things, all day.

[Panasonic]

7. The Republicans will be forced to concede once it's certified.

All of them will have to find burger flipping jobs, and Alien West will be committed into the nearest insane asylum for at least 30 years.

[24601]

15. Other than manners, there is nothing governing concession. No one can be forced to concede and as

another pointed out earlier in the thread, it has no legal weight.

Count the votes - all the votes - period.

[TahitiNut]

23. Now way I'd eat food they had ANYTHING to do with preparing.

[xxqqqzme]

8. Bah-bye

bilbray.

[HangOnKids]

18. Please Please Please

I was introduced to BB back in 1980 and he was a slimy, horn-dog, shit weasel. I know he has never changed and his politics SUCK ASS. Please please please let him get kicked to the curb. Turn San Diego BLUE my friends!

[nolabels]

9. So how can we keep what we got and gain 17+ more seats

While not selling the farm to get there? You can bet in a month or two the republicans will regroup for the 2014 elections. They will be angry, conniving and willing to do whatever they can for a backlash and favor-ability to their party. I believe their bluster will shed just like a snake and we will see something they will be trying to sell what they have just like it was new. They only need a few percentage points and we can bet they will be making mountains out of every molehill they see. They won't have an albatross in Romney hanging around so they will have a much easier time because of it.

Just kind of thinking that the homework needs to get done early so we can be ready

Got to go get some homework done now myself, so see ya

[Art_from_Ark]

17. I agree

The party out of the White House tends to gain Congressional seats in mid-term elections anyway, and like you said, "They won't have an albatross in Romney hanging around so they will have a much easier time because of it," which will be made all the easier if Obama sings too much Kumbaya around their campfire.

[eggplant]

20. And a Dem Prez running in a bad economy with high unemployment never gets re-elected either.

Personally, I think the Rs are going to have their asses handed to them *again* in 2014, and we'll take back the house. For the next two years, the Rs are either going to look obstructionist or impotent, or will waffle between the two. They won't have the huge dollar contributors from this year, who blew $300M for exactly zilch.

If us Dems can continue to use Obama's ground game machine for the next two years, we can run the table in 2014.

[Art_from_Ark]

24. Think again

The only Democratic Presidents who were running for re-election during a bad economy in the last 100 years besides Obama were FDR and Jimmy Carter. FDR won, Carter lost, so you can't really say that "conventional wisdom" says that a Democratic President can't be re-elected during a bad economy.

On the other hand, the party in power almost always loses seats in mid-term elections. For more than 100 years, it has been EXTREMELY hard for the sitting President's party to buck this trend, as the table in this article clearly demonstrates:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election

[former9thward]

30. What was your House predicton fo 2012?

[eggplant]

42. I predicted that we would take the House, but I generally wasn't serious.

It was more of a "wouldn't it be great if" kind of prediction.

Given how well the Rs did in the 2000 state races, and thus had the privilege to control the gerrymandering, I think we kicked ass in the House this time around.

But I really don't think that gaining more seats in the House in 2014 is terribly hard to imagine. And with the way the counts are still happening this week, we've picked up even more seats.

But what do I know.

[former9thward]

51. Maybe but I don't think so.

Gerrymandering goes both ways. If all the remaining close races go Dem we will pick up 10 seats. But that is not great considering the Reps lost 5 seats in IL due to Dem gerrymandering and lost 5 seats in CA due to redistricting. The party out of power in a midterm elections generally picks up seats at the mid term. In my areas the Reps always turn out in greater numbers than Dems for the midterms. So we will see.

[davidpdx]

50. This is a good question

we need to be acting pretty quickly. Also we are going to have to defend a bunch of Senate seats as well which can get expensive. I'd like to see an initial target list on a state by state basis. There may be some states which probably won't be any seats in play. For instance Oregon has 5 seats, we control 4. One seat is Southern and Eastern Oregon which is very conservative (or as Mitty would say "severely conservative&quot and would be a hard sell.

Maybe 2 or 3 people could break the list of states up into groups and start looking at potential races and the voting history in each CD.

[Gregorian]

52. We've got to get dedicated thread topics going.

I've tried a couple of times, but it was one and two days after the election.

We cannot afford to have the mean children ruining this country. Or something like that. We must have the House.

[dbackjon]

10. Taking out West, Lungren and Bilbray would be awesome!

[Coyotl]

34. Exactly my thought on reading the list ... very good news this!

[AnotherMother4Peace]

39. Peters is now up 1,900 votes over Bilbray w/260,000 votes to count nt

[BainsBane]

11. I thought the West Murphy race had already been called

and the Fl Sec of State certified Murphy as the winner.

[LisaL]

38. West would not concede.

[craigmatic]

13. If we win these last 4 all we'll need to win the next time is 17 seats.

[ThoughtCriminal]

14. Overall - House Democrats got more votes than Republicans

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/11/09/house-democrats-got-more-votes-than-house-republicans-yet-boehner-says-hes-got-a-mandate/

The GOP majority can thank very productive use of red state gerrymandering.

As much as we'd like to take a rest, 2014 is going to be a big challenge.

[ReallyIAmAnOptimist]

28. Right, the gerrymandering resulted in a 2.5% GOP advantage...

Which will make 2014 a rough road. But so was 2012, and with precision targeting (ground game and advertising) maybe we can get there.

The 2.5% number comes from Sam Wang, who had done more calculations on the House than anyone else I ran across. See: http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/09/the-new-house-with-less-democracy/

[jillan]

19. FYI - Ron Barber AZ-02 is Gabby Gifford's old seat. It would be a crime if that tpug McSally won.

[nadinbrzezinski]

21. Bilbray's aide said as much this morning

no concession.

I will be ready to call it by Wednesday I suppose, if trends continue.

[kentuck]

22. So, if Dems take them all....

They will only need 17 seats to take back the majority in the next election. That is always reachable.

[elleng]

25. Repug margin shrinks, the less power they wield confidently

and MORE CAREFUL THEY BEHAVE, given they run again, in 2014.

GOOD NEWS!

[AlbertCat]

26. McIntyre/ Rouzer

It's a close call here.

But McInyre is a blue dog who even had an ad about how conservative he is.

However Rouzer is a nut case who used to be a lobbyist, and in his ads talked about how he was gonna "save NC from Obama", whatever that means. All his ads were mostly about Pelosi (!) and your typical Teabagger platitudes (Job killing tax hikes! Obama's failed stimulus!) even an ad where he's praised.... by his grandmother

As far as I can see NC is freaking out. Since the all Repug legislature squeaked in earlier, it's been trying to become Alabama, in the 50's.... having a meltdown over a 1¢ rise in taxes that was amazingly helpful....but had to get killed because we can't raise any taxes!...

[John2]

29. I

know the District Mike McIntyre is from. That is around Robeson County,Scotland,Bladen and Cumberland County. President Obama won all three counties. I'm surprised McIntyre's race is close. You say he is a Blue Dog but if President Obama wanted to put pressure on McIntyre, he can do it easily by campaigning directly to the people in that area. That area has a heavy African American population and Lumbee Indian. I also know a lot of people in that area. That area has a high poverty rate and receives a lot of Government assistance. It also have a very low education rate. McIntyre has been the only Democrat that has run in that District. He has been in Congress a while. If the Democrats can find a better candidate to run against McIntyre in the primaries, he is vulnerable.

[John2]

32. I

also think it would have been much more helpful if President Obama spent some time himself campaigning in North Carolina just like he did the other swing states. It might have pushed him over the top. Romney never had a clear lead in North Carolina. I think it was a mistake by the President not to go there.

[AlbertCat]

44. Romney never had a clear lead in North Carolina.

It was so close. Very annoying!

And my part of district 7 is New Hanover, Pender, and Onslow.... very military, rural (but or Wilmington), retiree, and touristy. And there have been no Dems to challenge McIntyre. Just really nutty Repugs. That's why he wins, the alternatives are clearly loony.

I think the current repug legislature and Gov. are the conservatives sorta freaking out at how blue NC is trying to become. That's why we get panicky things like Prop 1...that outlaws something already illegal in the state. Hopefully it's just a spurt.... and then the road to a more liberal state will continue. But the damage they can do....

[Brother Buzz]

27. Even money says Dan Lungren concedes before noon, Wednesday

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

33. Allen West says "Over my dead body" he'll concede.

Don't tempt us Allen.

[kennetha]

35. How Many of the Repugnants represent blue districts

My question is how many, if any, of these repugnants represent districts won by Obama? The Repugnants at 234-201, have a smaller majority than we had during Reagan's first two years (244D - 191R). Often during that period, blue dog dems deserted the party and sided with the Republicans -- like on Reagan's signature tax cuts. Dems in districts won by Reagan were particularly ripe for the picking on many particular votes. Tip did turn out to be a worthy adversary though and often held his caucus together. But it took a lot of work.

Anyway we could regularly poach some Republican votes and bring some of them over to our side so that we have operational control of the House, even though we don't have the actual majority? Sure would be nice if we could pull that one off.

I fear that redistricting has probably done away with a fair number of repugs in blue districts. But I don't know the facts here. I recall Pelosi saying there were 48 or so Repugs elected in 2008 from districts won by Obama. But with redistricting I bet that number went way down this time around.

[Liberaltalker]

36. Grrrrrrr!!!!!

I so want Bilbray gone!!!!

[JudyM]

41. Welcome to DU, Liberaltalker!

... and I so want Cantor gone, but will have to wait for 2014. Fingers crossed re: Bilbray.

[ffr]

40. How heartwarming!

I love feel good stories like this one.

[FreeBC]

43. Palm Beach Post: Should Allen West concede?

I enjoyed this bit:

It is ironic that on his campaign web site Rep. West proclaimed that, “We badly need tort reform” to curb the cost of frivolous lawsuits. He’s willing to deprive average citizens of their right to use the courts when they feel wronged, but has no compunction about running up legal costs to prove his own victim status.

http://blogs.palmbeachpost.com/opinionzone/2012/11/08/should-allen-west-concede/

[Left Coast2020]

45. Y I P P Y S K I P P Y !!!!!

Bera is leading Lungren!!!!

Good bye Dan. Start packing your bags!!!!