Hamas, Israel Agree to Truce (Clinton Announces)

[Hissyspit]

Last edited Wed Nov 21, 2012, 01:42 PM - Edit history (1)

Source: Reuters

Will update

@Reuters: Egyptian TV says news conference expected soon from presidency where Clinton has held talks on Gaza truce http://t.co/vyx1DHrV

@Reuters: EGYPTIAN OFFICIAL CONFIRMS TO REUTERS CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT REACHED BETWEEN PALESTINIANS, ISRAEL

@Reuters: More: Egyptian official says formal announcement by Egypt about ceasefire deal to be made shortly http://t.co/vyx1DHrV

Hamas, Israel agree truce: Palestinian source


GAZA | Wed Nov 21, 2012 12:07pm EST

(Reuters) - Israel and the Islamist militant group Hamas agreed on Wednesday to a Gaza ceasefire deal, said a Palestinian official with knowledge of Egyptian mediation between the two sides.

The official declined to be named or to give further information.

There was no immediate official confirmation of the news, which came on the eighth day of intensive Israeli fire on the Gaza Strip and militant rocket attacks out of the Palestinian territory.


Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/21/us-palestinians-israel-ceasefire-idUSBRE8AK0ZX20121121

---

@CBSNews: BREAKING NEWS: Sec. of State Clinton and Egyptian President Morsi announce Gaza cease-fire http://t.co/ir9VstBX

[Turbineguy]

1. Let's hope so.

[dipsydoodle]

2. temporary link here

http://live.reuters.com/UK/Event/Conflict_on_the_Gaza_Strip

[rivegauche]

3. Can we thank Hillary for this yet? nt

[dipsydoodle]

6. Only if she threatened to cut off aid to Israel.

.

[happyslug]

8. The President of Egypt

Hillary Clinton did not have any real cards to play, thus could NOT be to large a factor. She was NOT about to cut off supplies to Israel and Israel knew that and without that ability she had no cards to play.

On the other hand the President of Egypt had several cards to play, cards the Israel did not want to even see, let alone be played. You must remember the President of Egypt has the support of the Moslem Brotherhood, who in turn has support of most Egyptians, almost all of the lower 50% of income earners. Thus if you want a mass meeting in the Streets of Cairo, the President of Egypt can produce it.

This permits the President to provide Israel four options, they get to make the choice:

1. Israel Put out of Gaza and leave it alone.

2. Egypt sends its army into the Sinai and once they move into Gaza and drive out the Israelis. At that point the Israelis attack and drive out the Egyptians. The President of Egypt tells his followers he done all he can do, the problem is the Egyptian military and he gets a chance to purge all the pro-USA officers in the upper ranks of the Egyptian Military which gives him a stronger hand in Egypt and an open excuse to provide military supplies to Hamas.

3. Egypt forces are attacked by the Israelis, and driven out, Repeat Sentence in bold above.

4. As the Egyptian Army moves into the Sinai, Israel attack. Repeat Sentence in bold above.

Notice, it is assumed the Egyptian Army would LOSE, but the key is that such a lost would WEAKEN the Generals of the Egyptian Army and Strengthen the Moslem Brotherhood. Once the options are presented to Israel, they hate option 1, but it is best choice of four bad options for Israel.

In simple terms, the President of Egypt and the Mostem Botherhood wins in all four cases. These are nasty cards, but the President of Egypt holds them given his support from the Moslem Brotherhood. The only down side of the above, is that the US will stop food aid to Egypt, a big concern to the President of Egypt for Egypt is a net food importer. Such a cut off would mean increase starvation among the Egyptian Poor, but the President can blame that on the US and Israel, so it is NOT as bad as it sounds (bad as to the poor of Egypt having no food, but good is that they will NOT blame the President of Egypt for the food shortage).

This is the problem the Israel Government has to face when dealing with Gaza, Egypt of today is NOT the pre-Arab Spring Egypt, which would have protested Israeli actions in the Gaza Strip, but do nothing about it. Today's Egypt must do something for that is what the people of Egypt wants. The Generals may be facing certain defeat, but they dare NOT refuse to go, for then they are just lackeys of the Israelis as far as most Egyptians would be concerned, They dare not overthrow the present government, for the same reason. The Generals must go, do the best they can and expect to be dismissed when they fail.

Thus this is the product of the President of Egypt, he gave the Israeli Government four bad choices and Israel decided to pick the least bad one.

[dipsydoodle]

12. AP are saying

that the truce would be based on two separate ceasefires - one by each party.

[John2]

17. Your analysis

is so flawed, that I don't know where to start. Hillary Clinton represents the United States. Egypt and Israel both depend on the support of the United States. Don't under estimate the power of the United States even in the U.N. or Security Council. The United States is the one that can make ultimatums on both sides. We can make things very hard for both sides. So don't under estimate the United States. It is just a matter of using our power.

[happyslug]

48. What Ultimatum that affects the President of Egypt???

That was my point, given the fact that the present President of Egypt has the support of the Moslem Brotherhood, any REVOLT or COUP against him would lead to a Civil War (and given the nature of the Egyptian Army, the dissolution of that Army as the enlisted desert and join the Moslem Brotherhood).

Most of the US Supplies are in form of support for the Egyptian Military, something the Moslem Brotherhood (and the present President of Egypt) would like to REDUCE, i.e. cuts in military supplies would be WELCOMED by the President. The only issue is FOOD, and it appears the reason for the Arab Spring had more to do with the wide spread increase in the price of bread then anything else. What can the US offer in regards to FOOD, given that it would mean having to CUT support for Corn to Gasoline program so the ground growing corn can be converted to Wheat to ship to Egypt to sell at a loss?

The Arab Spring the the price of food:
http://www.economist.com/node/21550328
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/world/july-dec11/food_09-07.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/04/food-fao-idUSL6E8L473R20121004

In simple terms, what drives the population of Egypt is the price of Food, not military supplies, or anything else the US can give them. The elites may want cell phones and more internet service, but 18-40 % (Depends on the source) of Egyptians live on less then #2 a day or less, ($730 a YEAR or LESS),

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/07/egypts-silent-poor-majority/242105/

http://data.worldbank.org/country/egypt-arab-republic?display=default

22% of the population live in poverty:
http://data.worldbank.org/country/egypt-arab-republic?display=default#cp_wdi

Gross National Income per Capita is only $2600, compared to the US of $48.450 and Israel of $28.930.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.CD/countries/EG-XQ-XN?display=default

Just pointing out, the price of food is more critical to Egypt then anything else, and most US Foreign Aid is of Military gear NOT food (and clearly not food in the last five years):

[riderinthestorm]

27. Egypt has about $1.5 billion reasons to listen to Hillary Clinton, every year, for 30 years.

Morsi would be dead politically if he doesn't do exactly what the US wants him to do since he needs the payola. He's not going to jeopardize that much aid - the most aid given to any foreign country except Israel....

Hillary has ALL the card$ to play for BOTH Egypt and Israel actually.

[JackRiddler]

38. Typically American attitude, assuming everyone can be bought

for the price the USG offers, no matter what the additional cost may come in exchange. (Do you think the 1.5 billion to Egypt is some kind of charity deal, no quo for the quid?)

This blind arrogance has blown up in USG face many times.

Also, what's with the blind fandom? I mean, who knows at this stage who's not in the round what effect Clinton in particular may be having? This site is reading more and more like a series of Soviet-style PR releases for our beloved leaders who can do no wrong.

[riderinthestorm]

44. Ignore that kind of money at your peril in realpolitick imho.

If that much money matters going to Israel (and everyone assumes it does), then it matters going to Egypt.

Hillary Clinton deserves some applause for this. Considering that Morsi thought he had something nailed down yesterday which fell through, and NOW Clinton arrives and the deal is done, means she matters. I never count her out. She's a major international player and its not "fandom" to state that.

Finally, I hold an Irish passport so please take your presumptions elsewhere.

[happyslug]

49. And most of that is Military supplies, that helps the Egyptian Military

And the present President of Egypt wants to WEAKEN the Military, which means he does not WANT those supplies, and he would love the US to cut them out. The Military supplies support his ENEMIES in the Egyptian Military, not his supporters, so he cares less about all that supplies given to the Egyptian Military.

Food, is another issue. Food affects his supporters, but will the US reduce support of Corn to Fuel Program, so that the US can ship more grain to Egypt? I believe the answer is NO, thus the US has little leverage with the present President of Egypt.

Now, Egypt is dependent on foreign oil, which is paid for with American Aid Money, but can Washington cut that aid? I asked that question for such a cut off, could trigger problems throughout the middle east, including Saudi Arabia:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/29/world/middleeast/white-house-move-to-give-egypt-450-million-in-aid-meets-resistance.html?_r=0

Of the $1.55 Billion of Aid, $1.3 Billions MILITARY AID, thus the only Aid the Moslem Brotherhood cares about is the remaining, $250 million in economic aid.

http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/14/13866898-how-much-are-taxpayers-spending-on-egypt-and-libya?lite

A million is not that much money anymore. $250 million is not that much, when compared to the 1.3 BILLION in Military aid (or $1300 Million is Military Aid). That $250 million is what MAY concern the Moslem Brotherhood, but most of that sounds like aid to buy fuel, used by the Egyptian Military and the elites, thus most of that money is NOT a concern of the Moslem Brotherhood.

Please note the US Government spends $1.5 BILLION dollars a day on Medicare. In other words the US aid to Egypt, including military aid, equals one day of spending on Medicare.

Egypt Gross National Produce (GNP) is $255.9 Billion, so, including the military aid, this equals less then 1/2 of a percent of the GNP. Would you worry about something that affects less then .5% of your income? (i.e.NOT 5% .5% and the economic part is 1/8 of that, for the ,5% includes the Military spending).

http://data.worldbank.org/country/egypt-arab-republic?display=default#cp_wdi

[riderinthestorm]

51. Morsi, yes Morsi, just accepted $1 BILLION dollars in debt relief from the US in September

I'm sorry but that's a huge amount of money for Egypt and ignoring it is willfully naive.

[happyslug]

53. So, The US told Egypt not to pay what Egypt can NOT pay.

That is what debt relief to third world countries generally amounts to, the US forgives them for debts they can never pay back, more to avoid a default that will harm US Banks (By forcing them to acknowledge the debt is noncollectable) then anything to help Egypt.

Remember the biggest banks in the US are insolvent (i.e. their assets and less then their liabilities). The US does NOT want to acknowledge that fact, preferring to delay any acknowledgment in the hopes the banks will some how find out a way out of the mess they are in. The US Treasury has bent over backwards to aid the US Banks as to Housing in the US (Even while telling homeowners they must pay they mortgages) and the last thing the US wants is for any third world country to declare itself insolvent at the present time. The effect on the US Banks would be enormous, even if the debt it owned the US Government instead of the US Banks.

[Dubster]

4. Spam deleted by gkhouston (MIR Team)

[robinlynne]

5. ok. I am now amazed at Hillary. the one I voted against.

[TomClash]

7. Good if true

Israel is inflicting terror and misery on the lives of hundreds of thousands of Gazans. There have been over 1,000 Palestinian casualties, including many small children and babies, as a result of this vile Israeli pogrom. It must end.

[iandhr]

15. So when rockets are fired at Israel they have no right to respond?

[Scootaloo]

19. Blowing up Palestinians doesn't help Israel out

And the sooner anti-Palestinian posters on DU get that simple fact through their hateful little heads, the better off everyone will be.

[glacierbay]

25. Shooting rockets into Israel doesn't help the Palestinian people out either.

And the sooner the anti Israel posters on DU get that simple fact through their heads, the better off everyone will be.

[Scootaloo]

28. Totally agree

I'm glad we found this point of consensus.

Too bad you couldn't agree with what I said, though. Didn't expect you to though, honestly

[glacierbay]

30. Here, let me amend my comment

shooting into each others territory is not conductive to peace.

[Scootaloo]

31. Thank you

[King_David]

52. Pogrom?

Yea it had nothing to do with terrorists firing rockets indiscriminately into Israel.

You right what the hell was Israel thinking trying to stop these murderers.

[Kingofalldems]

9. She'd make a good president some day

[bitchkitty]

11. She certainly will. n/t

[dipsydoodle]

10. Actual link headline is : Hamas, Israel agree truce: Palestinian source

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/21/us-palestinians-israel-ceasefire-idUSBRE8AK0ZX20121121 copied from OP

No mention of Clinton.

[Hissyspit]

24. POLITICO Breaking News ------------------------------------------------- Secretary of State Hillary

POLITICO Breaking News
-------------------------------------------------
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced on Wednesday a cease fire between Israel and Hamas to end the days of violence in the Gaza Strip.

"The people of this region deserve the chance to be free of fear and violence and today's agreement is a step in the right direction that we should build on," Clinton said in Egypt, where she had been helping negotiate an agreement.

Clinton called for an end to rocket attacks and expressed hope for a "broader calm."


Also CBS: BREAKING NEWS: Sec. of State Clinton and Egyptian President Morsi announce Gaza cease-fire

[Marrah_G]

13. Thank you Madam Secretary!

Even if it is temporary, at least it is something until maybe, just maybe these two groups can learn to compromise.

[dipsydoodle]

14. See posts 8 and 10 - nothing to do with Clinton.

.

[muriel_volestrangler]

16. Kick (nt)

[ZombieHorde]

18. Fingers crossed. nt

[yellowcanine]

20. Limbaugh was doing his best to make a mockery of the announcement. Among other things, he is

claiming that the Egyptians held up announcing the ceasefire for 24 hours to give Clinton time to get there and make the announcement herself.

[ellisonz]

21. Hamas will certainly take this as an opportunity to re-arm...

...and then in a month the rockets will be flying again.

[kelliekat44]

22. Maybe not if Isarel doesn't assassinate another Hamas official and kill innocent children in the

process?

[ellisonz]

23. You do realize that the Hamas rocket attacks never stopped for the last 4 years?

Israel attacks military targets using the best intelligence means it can put to use (such as a Hamas official), while Hamas uses indiscriminate weapons and celebrates when they kill Israeli civilians.

Hamas does not give a shit about the Palestinian people. So long as Hamas remains in control of Gaza the people of Gaza will suffer because of their blunders while those in the West Bank where Fatah controls will continue to experience peace and economic prosperity.

[glacierbay]

26. Inconvenient truths don't matter, dontcha know. nt.

[ellisonz]

29. Agreed.

The willful disbelief required to support Hamas is not unlike the willful disbelief needed to deny global warming.

[glacierbay]

32. I thought you would catch that little dig at the climate change deniers

[Hissyspit]

42. There are inconvenient truths pertaining to the Israel side of the story

and the ones the poster to whom you are responding are not entirely accurate.

To ignore them is rather atrocious.

[nauthiz]

34. If by peace and prosperity you mean...

having far right Jewish extremists armed with guns run into your house because an old discredited book told them that your house was their property, beating your children in the street because their Palestinian and having Israeli onlookers do nothing, the continuation of illegal settlements, and not being recognized by the U.N. because the U.S. is hypocritical about its values, then yes, the West Bank is full of peace and prosperity.

Sorry. Both sides do horrible things to one another and they can't contain their extremists. Hamas wants Israel destroyed and far right Israelis want to kill every man woman and child in Gaza. The two sides hate each other. Period.

The people of Gaza are in disarray, you could probably find a Gazan who hates Hamas and find plenty of Gazans dancing for Israel's destruction. I've also heard personally of many Israelis calling for blood and becoming completely indifferent to suffering caused by the blockade of Gaza (a declaration of war btw). The one with the greater military and diplomatic power will win.

As long as the U.S. does not go to war with Iran because we can't help but be manipulated by Israel is the only thing I care about.

[ellisonz]

35. I like how you seemlessly transitioned from the situation in the West Bank to Gaza.

At this point, it really is comparing apples and oranges.

When was the last time Israel launched a major military operation in the West Bank?

[Scootaloo]

50. The West bank and Gaza are not separate entities

They are both Palestine. At the moment the two territories are both under the same government; one is dominated by Fatah, the other by Hamas. Sort of like how states in the US work (sort of.)

Can't pretend that what affects one has no impact on the other... Especially since there are so many families split between the two territories.

[azurnoir]

36. and Israeli airstrikes against Gaza did stop right?

well anyone who reads ME news sources knows the truth and that is that have been lulls and cease fires but neither side has stopped for good nor will they here

Israel is just protecting its people it is not Israel fault that there are uncounted dead Palestinian women and children no never not at all Israel had to kill them to protect itself but Palestinians are responsible for each and every Israeli death and each and every Israeli death is an act of terror and an unspeakable tragedy including the 1 member of IDF that died there are now 5 tragic Israeli deaths all told, and around 150-160 dead Palestinians but meh who's counting them they reproduce like flies anyway and probably deserved it every last one of them , right?

[ellisonz]

37. I'd appreciate it if you did not put words into my mouth.

but meh who's counting them they reproduce like flies anyway and probably deserved it every last one of them , right?

I'll await your forthcoming apology - you can dispute the argument without making such disgusting personal attacks -

[azurnoir]

40. did you not see the sarcasm smilie

and it seems you did the same to me a couple of days ago but apparently you did not feel an apology was necessary in that case but I am sorry you've never said that Palestinians reproduce like flies

[ellisonz]

41. Thank you.

I said no such disgusting, uncivil thing, suggesting that I somehow view the population of Gaza as "flies" is repugnant and wrong, and I have refrained from alerting on your post because you and I have had civil discussions before, but I'm not going to sit back and take such a spurious charge without calling it what it is, wrong.

I simply asked you to acknowledge that not everything flying out of Gaza for the last four years has been non-explosive, that violence has been a two-way street over the last four years.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014310837#post16

[LeftishBrit]

33. k&r; long may it last!

Thank you Secretary Clinton,

Thank you President Morsi.

[Rhiannon12866]

39. Reuters appears to have changed article title to "Hamas, Israel agree truce: Palestinian source."

Since this thread was the first in LBN to announce this important news, hosts would appreciate it if you'd edit the subject line to match. Thanks!

[Ash_F]

43. Hope it holds up

Sec. Clinton has my respect on this one.

[oberliner]

45. Gaza rockets hit south after truce; IDF holds fire

A Grad rocket that was fired towards Beersheba at around 8 pm Wednesday hit a house, but there no reports of injury. At least five rockets were fired toward the southern city shortly after Egypt declared that a truce between Israel and Hamas will go into effect at 9 pm. Rockets also landed in Netivot and Ashkelon.

Later, additional rockets were fired toward Ashdod, Netivot, Beer Tuvia and the Bnei Shimon and Hof Ashkelon regional councils. Some of the rockets landed in open areas, while others were intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defense system.

Several rockets were launched from Gaza after 9 pm, when the ceasefire between Gaza and Israel took effect. The IDF held its fire.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4310174,00.html

[riderinthestorm]

46. Damn. You should probably make this its own OP oberliner. Its LBN for sure, alas. nt

[oberliner]

47. Hopefully it won't be a big deal

If this was the last shot and the cease fire holds starting now - it won't matter much.

[sarcasmo]

54. Kick!