Fourth-quarter GDP revised down to just 0.7% growth; January core inflation was 3.1%

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: CNBC

Published Fri, Mar 13 20268:36 AM EDT Updated 23 Min Ago


Economic growth was much slower than expected in the final three months of 2025 while core inflation rose to start 2026, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced across the sprawling U.S. economy, rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of just 0.7% in the fourth quarter, according to the department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The first revision of the GDP reading was a sharp step down from the previous estimate of 1.4% and well below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 1.5%. It also marked a considerable slowdown from the 4.4% gain in the prior period.

For the full year, GDP posted a 2.1% increase, or one-tenth of a percentage point lower than the previous reading. In 2024, the economy rose at a 2.8% pace. According to the BEA, the downward revision came due to adjustments in consumer and government spending and exports. A decline in imports, which technically subtract from GDP, also was less than the previous estimate.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/13/fourth-quarter-gdp-revised-down-to-just-0point7percent-growth-january-core-inflation-was-3point1percent.html

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From the source -

Link to tweet

BEA News
@BEA_News
For all of 2025, the U.S. economy grew 2.1%, down from the 2.2% rate estimated a month ago.

https://bea.gov/data/gdp/gross
-domestic-product


#GDP
8:32 AM · Mar 13, 2026

Link to tweet

BEA News
@BEA_News
The U.S. economy grew at a 0.7% annualized rate in Q4, down from the 1.4% rate estimated a month ago.

https://bea.gov/data/gdp/gross
-domestic-product
Image
8:48 AM · Mar 13, 2026

Article updated.

Original article -

Published Fri, Mar 13 20268:36 AM EDT Updated 3 Min Ago


Economic growth was much slower than expected in the final three months of 2025 while core inflation rose to start 2026, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced across the sprawling U.S. economy, rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of just 0.7% in the fourth quarter, according to the department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The first revision of the GDP reading was a sharp step down from the previous estimate of 1.4% and well below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 1.5%. It also marked a considerable slowdown from the 4.4% gain in the prior period.

For the full year, GDP posted a 2.1% increase, or one-tenth of a percentage point lower than the previous reading. In 2024, the economy rose at a 2.8% pace.


This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.

[Prairie Gates]

1. Oooooooof

[BeyondGeography]

2. Stagflation anyone?

Gotta hand it to him, Trump is doing his best on that front.

[NewHendoLib]

3. All that winning! Bigly!

[chicoescuela]

4. I know I'm tired of winning so much.

Sir, I can’t take anymore winning

[progree]

5. PCE Inflation Graphs

PCE January 0.3% (December was 0.4%);;: 12 months: 2.8%;;
CORE PCE: 0.4% (December was 0.4%);; 12 months: 3.1%,
3/13/26
SOURCE URLS: 3/13/26 release: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income
. . . CURRENT RELEASE - https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-january-2026
. . . FULL RELEASE AND TABLES - https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-03/pi0126.pdf
. . . PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
. . . CORE PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/PCEPILFE

,



The CORE PCE is the Federal Reserve's favorite gauge for forecasting FUTURE inflation. This doesn't fit the media's typical narrative that inflation is coming down or at worst "sticky".

Remember the graphs (and OP) on inflation are JANUARY. The FEBRUARY ones are likely to be uglier, given the CPI ones for February that came out 2 days ago --

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3630564

Oh, almost forgot - the Iran thing and the oil and LNG and fertilizer price spikes? The attack on Iran began on Saturday, February 28. So none of this is in the January graphs above. And isn't in the February CPI graphs either and won't be in the February PCE when that comes out April 9.

So, the above (January and February) may very likely be remembered as the "good ol' days" of the Trump II kakistocracy.

[gab13by13]

6. So when this economic data is released in the future,

wouldn't it be easier if we all just cut the numbers in half, or in the case of unemployment, doubled the numbers?

Will there come a point when Krasnov stops these revisions?

I see he is still pushing hard for Powell to cut interest to crater the dollar.

If Putin were our president he couldn't have done as much damage to our country as Krasnov has done.

[Johnny2X2X]

7. He has zero to do with these revisions

The BLS is still independent and putting out good data. The revisions are a normal part of the process when more data can give a more accurate picture.

Bottom line though is that the economy is good and f*cked and working people are going to be hit hard.

[gab13by13]

8. How many times have revisions gone the other way, gone better,

under Krasnov?

The BLS can only work with the numbers it gets, I get it, how long will BLS remain independent under Krasnov?

Look what Krasnov has been trying to do with the Fed. he has been fighting to get rid of Jerome Powell so that regardless of the data he demands that interest rates be lowered to zero in order to crash the dollar. Good on Jerome to stand tall but there will be a new chair come May and I hope that Jerome stays on.

The Fed does a lot more than set interest rates, it regulates banks also. Krasnov can do a lot of damage to our country if he abolishes the independency of the BLS and the Fed.

[Johnny2X2X]

9. HIs pick to head it did not get confirmed

When (not if) he corrupts the BLS, we will know immediately as there are hundreds of dedicated life long civil servants processing these stats. They will raise the alarm and then many of them will resign. What happens after that I don't know, but right now I have the same confidence in the data as I've always had.

[mdbl]

10. The following article supports your assertion

Overall, we rate the Bureau of Labor Statistics Least Biased due to its apolitical, methods-first presentation of labor data and absence of editorial content. We also rate BLS High for factual reporting because of robust, transparent methodologies, routine revisions and benchmarking, and institutional safeguards against political manipulation.

this is elaborated at:
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/u-s-bureau-of-labor-statistic-bls-bias-and-credibility/


I just hope it can stay that way. Other agencies are not so steadfast. The SEC for example among others. FBI, DOJ, Treasury Secretary, etc.

[gab13by13]

11. I compare it with the Covid epidemic

The data was based on the states giving good data. I believe that there were many more deaths from Covid than reported because several states concealed the truth which skewered the total numbers.

Back when Romney ran against Obama, Gallup was the king of polls and it predicted a Romney win. The excuse it gave was from bad data in its formula. So my question is, was the bad data done deliberately or not?

Maybe one bad apple won't spoil the whole keg of BLS or the Fed, but it can make it stink. Krasnov will certainly replace honest people with his cronies, look what happened to the Supreme Court.

[mdbl]

13. I agree with you. The data could be skewed.

And I'm sure the Dump Admin is working especially hard with red states to do just that. I mean, if they were willing to lie about their electorate's votes as in the fake electorates ready to go to Washington, then they'll lie about anything.

[Johnny2X2X]

12. I don't think people understand how important the BLS is

Not just to report reliable data to the public, but how that data is consumed by businesses and local and state governments.

The UE and GDP data is baked into action plans for governments at all levels. When unemployment hits a certain rate, certain spending is activated in some states, local governments shift spending or cut back or increase spending. These local and state government control vast funds that are invested in different ways based on the economic data. And corporations have all sorts of contingency plans for investing, spending, or cutting back based on key economic indicators. the reach of the BLS data is immense, it effects a million little decisions you don't think about.

At a more macro level, when UE is high, there's sometimes more help for the jobless. When GDP is low, there's sometimes more help for business. When inflation is high, there are programs to control costs that are activated. I knew it was a very bad sign when the GOP began attacking this data non stop, they want to shape all of these decisions, not the BLS. And that type of interference spells doom as the more you distort reality, the worse the impact on the economy.

If Trump is able to corrupt the BLS, we are going to head into a depression. And with the Conservative stranglehold on the corporate media, I am not sure if people will even acknowledge it. I mean, my word, could you imagine the wall to wall coverage if these numbers were coming in under Joe Biden? It would be 24 hour coverage of the impending economic collapse if Biden was still in office. There would be a chorus of calls for him to step down before it's too late.

[modrepub]

14. Go Break Some Windows (To Help GDP)

I expect GDP in the coming months to go up. First a wave of tax refunds is bound to increase consumer spending (unless folks are using their refunds to pay off credit card bills or pay their property taxes). After that I expect spending on the military to push up GDP numbers. Nothing like draining taxes and flooding the bond market with more US debt to pay for very expensive military items that basically just blow crap up and do oh so much to heighten our return on capital.

Get ready for a whole new level of "lying with statistics" from this current administration.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

15. MaddowBlog-New GDP data paints an even uglier picture on the faltering Trump-era economy

In the first year of Trump’s second term, economic growth fell to a nine-year low, and job growth fell to a 16-year low. The White House hasn’t said why.

Economic growth in the first year of Trump’s second term was already disappointing, but new data paints an even uglier picture.

Remember when Scott Bessent insisted that economy is “really going to pick up in the fourth quarter” of 2025? Yeah, about that...
www.ms.now/rachel-maddo...

— Steve Benen (@stevebenen.com) 2026-03-13T15:07:31.478Z

https://www.ms.now/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/new-gdp-data-paints-an-even-uglier-picture-on-the-faltering-trump-era-economy

Throughout last year, as the U.S. economy struggled, Republican officials repeatedly insisted that there was good news on the way, and Americans wouldn’t have to wait too much longer to see satisfying results. As recently as August, for example, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confidently predicted to a national television audience that the U.S. economy is “really going to pick up in the fourth quarter” of 2025.

It did not pick up in the fourth quarter of 2025. CNBC reported:

Economic growth was much slower than expected in the final three months of 2025 while core inflation rose to start 2026, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced across the sprawling U.S. economy, rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of just 0.7% in the fourth quarter, according to the department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The original expectations for the fourth quarter, spanning October through December, was 2.5% growth. This led to disappointment a month ago when a preliminary tally showed 1.4% growth.

This newly revised figure showed the economy grew at just half of that earlier, disappointing data.....

In other words, despite endless Republican hype, economic growth and job growth were significantly stronger during Joe Biden’s final year in office compared with the first year of Donald Trump’s second term.

[BumRushDaShow]

16. This is why Bessent has since been relegated to

discussing "international coalitions" to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which is completely out of his wheelhouse and purview. Yet here we are.