Iran nuke unlikely to start Mideast arms race - U.S. report

[dipsydoodle]

Source: Reuters

(Reuters) - Fears that an Iranian nuclear weapon might trigger an atomic arms race across the Middle East are overplayed, a U.S. security thinktank said on Tuesday, arguing that countries like Saudi Arabia face big disincentives against getting the bomb.

Western powers believe Iran is trying to develop a nuclear weapon under cover of a civilian atomic electricity programme, a charge Tehran denies.

Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, is engaged in a fierce rivalry with Shi'ite power Iran and is seen in Western countries as the most likely Middle Eastern state to seek an atomic weapon if Iran did the same.

Analysts have also said an Iranian nuclear weapons capability might persuade Egypt and Turkey to seek a bomb too.

Read more: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/02/20/uk-nuclear-iran-report-idUKBRE91J0GK20130220

[Ezlivin]

1. Well, the 100+ nuclear weapons Israel possesses hasn't.

Right?

On 5 October 1986, the Sunday Times published Mordechai Vanunu’s account of the nuclear activities at Israel’s top-secret Dimona facility. The former Dimona technician’s revelations challenged the steadfastness of nuclear opacity. Vanunu’s claims reinforced some of the U.S. intelligence community’s suspicions, such as the fact that Israel had expanded the cooling capacity of the Dimona reactor. His testimony also confirmed the existence of the long-suspected reprocessing plant, as well the layout of subterranean levels at Dimona. The credibility of Vanunu’s account was strengthened by the 58 photographs he took of equipment, such as a full-scale model of a hydrogen bomb and glove boxes where plutonium discs were fashioned into pits. Based on his revelations, some experts estimated that Israel had built between 100 and 200 nuclear weapons of varying yields and complexity.

Source: http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/israel/nuclear/

[Mosby]

2. it hasn't made a difference for decades

Why now?

Think tank can say whatever stupid shit they want, the saudis have publicly stated that if iran develops a nuke they will too. I don't know how much clearer it can get.

[Ezlivin]

3. No difference?

It seems like every country wants a nuclear weapon.

And Saudi Arabia is still a client-state of ours.

[Mosby]

4. KSA partly funded the Pakistani nuke program

They could get one from them anytime they want.

when it comes to ME issues like this so called expert opinions don't mean much IMO.

In '07 the US NI Estimate said that Iran ended their nuke program and had little reason to believe that they restarted it. At the same time the IAEA was producing report after report about Iranian non-compliance of the NPT.

Fast forward to 2013 and Iran still has not complied with IAEA inspectors and no one has any doubt that Gov of Iran is developing WMD.