Centre left takes strong lead in Italy election - polls

[dipsydoodle]

Source: Reuters

(Reuters) - The centre left is strongly leading in Italy's election, 5-6 percentage points ahead of the centre right of former premier Silvio Berlusconi, according to two telephone polls of voters.

A poll for Sky television published after voting ended at 2 p.m. British Time, showed the anti-establishment protest movement of Beppe Grillo taking third place.

It showed the centre left ahead by 5.5 points in the lower house and by six points in the Senate although the result there will depend on key battleground regions. In the most important, Lombardy, Sky said the centre left was tied with Berlusconi.

Sky had the centre left of Pier Luigi Bersani on 34.5 percent, Berlusconi's centre right on 29 percent, Grillo on 19 percent and Monti slumping to 9.5 percent after a lacklustre centrist campaign that deeply disappointed his backers among foreign governments and investors.

Read more: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/02/25/uk-italy-vote-idUKBRE91L0N920130225

[naaman fletcher]

1. There is even better news in here than Berlusconi losing..

Monti slumping to 9.5 percent after a lacklustre centrist campaign that deeply disappointed his backers among foreign governments and investors.


What, you mean a Prime Minister's job is not to represent foreign governments and investors?

[Berlum]

2. Beppe G.

[pampango]

3. "The centre left is strongly leading in Italy's election, raising the chances of a stable pro-reform

government in the euro zone's third largest economy, according to two telephone polls published after voting ended."

Italy's electoral laws guarantee a strong majority in the lower house to the party or coalition that wins the biggest share of the national vote.

However the Senate, elected on a region-by-region basis, is more complicated and the result could turn on a handful of regions, including Lombardy in the rich industrial north - which the polls showed was tied - and the southern island of Sicily.

The 76-year-old Berlusconi, a billionaire media tycoon, pledged sweeping tax cuts and accused Monti of being a puppet of German Chancellor Angela Merkel in a media blitz that halved the lead of the centre left since the start of the year.

But many voters said they were sick of his broken promises and his campaign faltered at the end, with Grillo stealing some of his votes. The election could mark the end of a flamboyant two-decade career at the centre of the political stage.

[pampango]

4. Possibly bad news in Italian Senate polling. Berlusconi's party leading.

Sky has updated its Senate projection:

Centre-right coalition (Berlusconi): 31.9%

Centre-left coalition (Bersani): 28.7%

Five Star Movement (Grillo): 24.9%

Centrist coalition (Monti): 8.4%

We're still waiting for the projections from the Chamber of Deputies, but if they contradict the exit polls in the same way this may mark an amazing comeback for Berlusconi. Either that or his centre-right coalition will dominate the Senate while the centre-left dominates the Chamber of Deputies – deadlock.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/feb/25/italian-election-results-live-coverage

The new projections suggesting a Berlusconi majority in the Senate have sent shares sliding on the Milan stock market ...

Stefano Fassino of Bersani's leftwing Democratic party is predicting another election:

The scenario from the projections we have seen so far suggest there will be no stable government and we would need to return to the polls.

It was unrealistic to imagine a broad coalition between the centre-left and the centre-right led by Silvio Berlusconi, he told Rai.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

5. This is what I hate about the media....

When the Right wins it's all about their victory and the positive response from the investor class.

When the Left wins it's covered with words like "instability" and claiming the ONLY reason the right lost was because of scandals.

[Yo_Mama]

6. Poll was wrong

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/25/us-italy-vote-markets-idUSBRE91O0IT20130225

Italian shares and bonds lost earlier gains after election projections showed former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi's conservative bloc leading in the Senate, contradicting initial exit polls and raising the specter of deadlock in parliament.

The markets are going lower on this news. Since the results are so confusing, it's probably wise to wait for the actual results.

Beppe Grillo (Five Stars) is currently winning the single-party totals, so there may be some upheavals ahead. Both Grillo and Berlusconi's group are anti-austerity.

[brooklynite]

7. Current Numbers @ 75% counted

Center Left (Bersani): 31.4%

Center Right (Berlusconi): 27.3%

Anti-Establishment (Beppo Grillo): 25.5%

[muriel_volestrangler]

8. Italy election: Early vote count points to impasse

Early results from Italy's election suggest the houses of parliament may split between left and right, causing new anxiety in the eurozone.

Projections suggest Pier Luigi Bersani's centre-left bloc has a narrow lead in the lower house while Silvio Berlusconi's centre-right is ahead in the powerful Senate.

A protest movement led by comedian Beppe Grillo surged into third place.
...
A leading figure in Mr Bersani's party has said a new election may need to be called in order to form a stable government.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21574116

Italy on Monday night risked pitching into political turmoil as projections of the result of its general election pointed to a hung parliament and confirmed that the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S), led by an ex-comedian, Beppe Grillo, had exploded onto the national stage.

Projections suggested on balance that the centre-left would take the lower house, the Chamber of Deputies, by a tiny margin. But they also indicated that a resurgent right led by Silvio Berlusconi would have slightly more seats - though not necessarily more votes - in the Senate.

Crucially, it seemed certain that neither right nor left could obtain an outright majority in the upper house, where the balance would be held by the M5S. So far, Grillo has ruled out supporting either side in his drive to sweep away Italy’s existing political parties and the cronyistic culture they support.

Exceeding even the most adventurous pre-electoral predictions, the populist M5S was set to emerge as Italy’s biggest single party - a result that will send shock waves through the eurozone and beyond. Because it is running alone and not in a coalition, however, Grillo’s movement lagged the two big alliances in the number of seats.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/feb/25/italian-election-results-live-coverage#block-512bd463b579df9a524a3799

[Yo_Mama]

9. Italian law has a polling blackout period pre-election

so that's part of the reason for the surprise.

But this is a very big deal!

[dipsydoodle]

10. Italy election: Deadlock after protest vote

Italy's parliamentary elections have ended in stalemate and the possibility of a hung parliament.

With all domestic votes counted, Pier Luigi Bersani's centre-left bloc won the lower house vote but has failed to secure a majority in the Senate.

News of the results led to a sharp fall on Italian financial markets.

Mr Berlusconi conceded the lower house vote but control of both houses is needed to govern. A protest movement led by comedian Beppe Grillo won 25%.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21583260

[pampango]

11. The center-left coalition got the most votes in the lower house and in the Senate but

"Mr Bersani also won the national vote for the Senate, but was unable to secure the 158 seats required for a majority.

As bonus seats are distributed in the upper house according to regional votes, Silvio Berlusconi's centre-right bloc was expected to emerge with a higher number of seats."

In any case the center-left only beat Berlusconi by 0.4% in the lower house, only winning a majority of the seats because in Italy that is automatic for the group with the most votes.

Beppo Grillo of the Five Star Movement has said he does not want to join a government with either group. Monti got so few votes and seats that his party is irrelevant. The only possible government would be a coalition of Bersani and Berlusconi which it seems everyone says will never happen.

Looks like another election in Italy in the not-too-distant future.

[Bosonic]

12. Spain extremely worried by impact of deadlocked Italy vote

(Reuters) - Spain said it was extremely worried about the impact of Italy's deadlocked election result, warning on Tuesday the deadlock could affect the entire euro zone.

Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo said there was a feeling of "extreme concern" over possible movements in bond spreads as a reaction to the results.

"This is a jump to nowhere that does not bode well either for Italy or for Europe," Garcia-Margallo told journalists on the sidelines of a conference in Madrid.

The Spanish government said it was monitoring the situation, especially the fallout on financial markets as the premium investors demand to hold Spanish 10-year debt rather than the German benchmark jumped to 393 basis points, a level not seen in several weeks, when it emerged a cabinet could be hard to form.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/02/26/uk-spain-economy-idUKBRE91P07520130226