Monsoon Triggers Floods in India’s Himalayas, Killing 138

[muriel_volestrangler]

Source: Bloomberg Businessweek

Air force helicopters and rescue teams searched for survivors in northern India after days of monsoon rains triggered flash floods and landslides, killing at least 138 people and leaving hundreds missing.

Parts of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, the worst-hit states located in the foothills of the Himalayas, have been inundated by rains and swollen rivers. The downpours have washed away more than 400 roads as well as homes, vehicles and mobile-phone towers in the states, the ACT Alliance, an umbrella group of local and global non-governmental organizations, said in a statement.

While monsoon rains annually cause destruction across India, this year they have swept over the country with record speed, leaving tens of thousands of Hindu and Sikh pilgrims stranded. As many as 73,000 pilgrims, who traditionally flock to religious sites in the Himalayas in June, are stuck, ACT said. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said on his Twitter page that the army and air force are helping to rescue survivors.

More than 100 people were killed in Uttarakhand, Yashpal Arya, its minister for disaster management and rehabilitation, said by phone. While most of the tourists and pilgrims stranded in Kedarnath, a popular Hindu religious site, have been evacuated, a large number are still stuck at other locations, said Arya, adding it will take at least two more days to evacuate them.

Read more: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-06-19/monsoon-triggers-floods-in-india-s-himalayas-killing-130-people

[lunatica]

1. A quote from further down in the article

"While monsoon rains annually cause destruction across India, this year they have swept over the country with record speed, leaving tens of thousands of Hindu and Sikh pilgrims stranded. As many as 73,000 pilgrims, who traditionally flock to religious sites in the Himalayas in June, are stuck, ACT said. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said at a press conference today that the number of casualties is expected to rise as the army and air force continue to search for survivors. "

Another erstwhile rare, but more and more common precipitation event. That's Climate Change.

[OnlinePoker]

2. And last year they were in drought for most of the season.

That's weather.

[lunatica]

3. Are you a denier?

[OnlinePoker]

4. No, I'm someone who is sick of seeing every weather event attributed to climate change.

Sometimes, it's just weather.

[lunatica]

5. Actually it's always weather

But when you have a series of years when extreme and rare weather becomes more and more pronounced a thinking person might actually, you know, think.

You sound like a denier to me.

[OnlinePoker]

6. And where's you're proof that these monsoons are "extreme and rare"?

I'm someone who looks at past monsoon season and sees these events have happened quite regularly.

http://www.tropmet.res.in/~kolli/MOL/Monsoon/frameindex.html

If you look at the following, link, go on the left hand side and look at "Rainfall Data for SW monsoon (1901-2010)" and you'll see a wide variation in rainfall from year to year throughout the entire period. Lowest June rainfall in all of India was 88mm in 1905 and highest was 277mm in 1938. So far this year the total for this month has been 134mm and is 48% above normal, but not above what has happened in the past.

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/Monsoon_frame.htm

For you to say I'm a denier because I don't jump to the automatic "climate change" conclusion everytime something weather related happens is just piss-poor reasoning on your part. I look at the facts first and in this case, you're wrong.

[muriel_volestrangler]

8. Ups-and-downs of Indian monsoon rainfall likely to increase under warming

Day-to-day rainfall in India might become much more variable due to climate change – potentially putting millions of poor farmers and the country’s agricultural productivity at risk. The Indian monsoon is a complex system which is likely to change under future global warming. While it is in the very nature of weather to vary, the question is how much and whether we can deal with it. Extreme rainfall, for example, bears the risk of flooding, and crop failure. Computer simulations with a comprehensive set of 20 state-of-the-art climate models now consistently show that Indian monsoon daily variability might increase, according to a study just published by scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

“Increased variability – this rather technical term translates into potentially severe impacts on people who cannot afford additional loss,” says Anders Levermann, one of the study’s authors and co-chair of PIK’s research domain Sustainable Solutions. “The fact that all these different models agree is a clear message that adaptation measures can be built on.” Even if seasonal mean precipitation would remain unchanged, impacts could be substantial, Levermann points out. “Focusing on the average is not always useful. If rainfall comes in a spell and is followed by a drought, this can be devastating even if the average is normal. This requires the right kind of adaptation measures that account for this variability – such as intelligent insurance schemes, for example.”

The strongest change of 13 to 50 percent is found in a scenario in which greenhouse gases continue to be emitted unabated. However, even if global warming would be limited to the internationally acknowledged threshold of 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, this would bear the risk of additional day-to-day variability between 8 and 24 percent above the pre-industrial level, according to the analysis. “So limiting global warming is key to reduce day-to-day monsoon variability, adaptation cannot replace but rather complement it,” says Levermann.

http://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/ups-and-downs-of-indian-monsoon-rainfall-likely-to-increase-under-warming

via http://www.democraticunderground.com/112747333

[NickB79]

9. Extreme monsoons on the rise in India (2006 Nature article)

http://www.nature.com/news/2006/061130/full/news061127-12.html

Extreme summer monsoon rains have become ever more common in central India during the past 50 years, probably as a result of global warming, Indian scientists report in this week's Science. Worse, more frequent and intense cloudbursts seem to come at the expense of the more drawn-out, moderate rains that are vital for the drought-prone region. The risk of severe droughts and floods may further increase if the warming trend continues, the authors conclude.

Looks like this 7-yr old article was spot-on.

[muriel_volestrangler]

7. India floods: Death toll in Uttarakhand 'passes 500'

The state's Chief Minister, Vijay Bahuguna, said 556 bodies had been seen floating or buried in "slush", and that the army was working to recover them.

The charity Action Aid says 5,000 people are missing in the area.
...
Indian Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde said more than 33,000 pilgrims had been rescued in the past few days, but at least 50,000 people were still stranded.

Earlier on Friday, 40 bodies were recovered from the river Ganges in the temple town of Haridwar, according to local police official Rajiv Swaroop.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-23007121