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mahatmakanejeeves

(56,886 posts)
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 08:32 AM Aug 2013

July payroll employment increases (+162,000); unemployment rate edges down (7.4%)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JULY 2013

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in July, and the unemployment rate edged down to 7.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in retail trade, food services and drinking places, financial activities, and wholesale trade.

Household Survey Data

Both the number of unemployed persons, at 11.5 million, and the unemployment rate, at 7.4 percent, edged down in July. Over the year, these measures were down by 1.2 million and 0.8 percentage point, respectively. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult women (6.5 percent) and blacks (12.6 percent) declined in July. The rates for adult men (7.0 percent), teenagers (23.7 percent), whites (6.6 percent), and Hispanics (9.4 percent) showed little or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 5.7 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
....

In July, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 2 cents to $23.98, following a 10-cent increase in June. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 44 cents, or 1.9 percent. In July, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees were unchanged at $20.14. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

Read more: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm



Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I especially welcome viewers from across the aisle. You're paying for this information too, so you ought to see this as much as anyone. Please, everyone, put aside your differences long enough to digest the information. After that, you can engage in your usual donnybrook.

162,000 is substantially fewer jobs than the gain ADP® had estimated two days ago. That's a difference of 19 percent.

U.S. Economy Added 200,000 Private-Sector Jobs in July, According to ADP National Employment Report
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014553108

Someone raised the point when I posted ADP®'s numbers of how much those jobs paid. Please make note of tables B-3 and B-8 in the BLS report. You will find that information there.

If you don't have the time to study the report thoroughly, here is the news in a nutshell:

Commissioner's Statement on The Employment Situation
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jec.nr0.htm

What is important about these statistics is not so much this month’s number, but the trend. So let’s look at some earlier numbers.

ADP, for employment in July 2013:

U.S. Economy Added 200,000 Private-Sector Jobs in July, According to ADP National Employment Report
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014553108

BLS, for employment in April 2013:

April payroll employment increases by 165,000; unemployment rate changes little (7.5%)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/111634764

ADP, for employment in April 2013:

US Economy Added 119000 Private-Sector Jobs in April, According to ADP National Employment Report
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014470978

BLS, for employment in March 2013:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014445294
March payroll employment edges up (+88,000); unemployment rate changes little (7.6%)

ADP, for employment in March 2013:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014442827
U.S. Economy Added 158,000 Private-Sector Jobs in March, According to ADP National Employment Report

BLS, for employment in February 2013:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014419050
February payroll employment rises (+236,000); unemployment rate edges down (7.7%)

ADP, for employment in February 2013:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/111631869
U.S. Economy Added 198,000 Private-Sector Jobs in February, According to ADP Employment Report

BLS, for employment in January 2013:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014387295
January payroll employment rises (+157,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (7.9%)

ADP, for employment in January 2013:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014384927
U.S. Economy Added 192,000 Private-Sector Jobs in January, According to ADP National Employment Repo

One more thing:

So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that.

http://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/calculator/index.cfm
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator™

Well, enough of that. On with the show.

Monthly Employment Reports

The large print giveth, and the fine print taketh away.

A DU'er pointed out several months ago that, if I'm going to post the link to the press release, I should include the link to all the tables that provide additional ways of examining the data. Specifically, I should post a link to "Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization." Table A-15 includes those who are not considered unemployed, on the grounds that they have become discouraged about the prospects of finding a job and have given up looking. Here are those links.

Employment Situation

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

From the February 10, 2011, "DOL Newsletter":

Take Three

Secretary Solis answers three questions about how the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates unemployment rates.

How does BLS determine the unemployment rate and the number of jobs that were added each month?

BLS uses two different surveys to get these numbers. The "household survey," or Current Population Survey (CPS), involves asking people, from about 60,000 households, a series of questions to assess each person in the household's activities including work and searching for work. Their responses give us the unemployment rate. The "establishment survey," or Current Employment Statistics (CES), surveys 140,000 employers about how many people they have on their payrolls. These results determine the number of jobs being added or lost.
28 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
July payroll employment increases (+162,000); unemployment rate edges down (7.4%) (Original Post) mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2013 OP
Just saw the media outlets and their breaking news. BumRushDaShow Aug 2013 #1
Thank you for your kind words. mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2013 #2
Funny how that works Crow73 Aug 2013 #3
Are you saying you believe UI promotes unemployment? mathematic Aug 2013 #4
I think what he's saying is Thav Aug 2013 #16
Thank you Crow73 Aug 2013 #18
7.4% is complete fiction. I hate to say it, but our gov't statistics are crap. reformist2 Aug 2013 #5
This is nothing new watoos Aug 2013 #6
LOL, the same thing they did in Soviet Russia? phleshdef Aug 2013 #12
I'm talking about the headline numbers, which are a lie. reformist2 Aug 2013 #14
Um, no the headline is completely true. phleshdef Aug 2013 #15
Fiction is right. AnotherMcIntosh Aug 2013 #19
Nice data but I wish those charts were updated. dkf Aug 2013 #26
Same here. AnotherMcIntosh Aug 2013 #27
I don't want to sound as if I'm shooting the messenger, but mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2013 #28
What's the breakdown of full-time jobs vs part-time jobs ? n/t PoliticAverse Aug 2013 #7
In Response to Some Disbelief Regarding the Validity of the Numbers: mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2013 #8
The truth is not always appreciated. AnotherMcIntosh Aug 2013 #20
Yeah, right... matthews Aug 2013 #9
The irony is that in the long term the rich are going to end up cstanleytech Aug 2013 #22
It's not going to happen. The English learned from the experience: Peterloo. AnotherMcIntosh Aug 2013 #24
Maybe, maybe not. Depends how the republicans handle things like cstanleytech Aug 2013 #25
Thank you for your post and the energy you put behind it. hrmjustin Aug 2013 #10
Thank you for your kind words. mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2013 #11
A Pretty Poor Number Overall DallasNE Aug 2013 #13
K & R Scurrilous Aug 2013 #17
Kick n/t Tx4obama Aug 2013 #21
Sunday kick Fringe Aug 2013 #23

mathematic

(1,429 posts)
4. Are you saying you believe UI promotes unemployment?
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 09:01 AM
Aug 2013

Cuz that's exactly the republican reasoning for cutting unemployment insurance. They say if people are collecting a check it reduces their incentive for getting a job.

I'm surprised to see this idea endorsed here at DU.

Thav

(946 posts)
16. I think what he's saying is
Sat Aug 3, 2013, 11:44 AM
Aug 2013

people are going beyond what UI provides, and thus are falling off the count of being unemployed. They're still unemployed, but no longer counted as they're not receiving unemployment benefits.

reformist2

(9,841 posts)
5. 7.4% is complete fiction. I hate to say it, but our gov't statistics are crap.
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 09:10 AM
Aug 2013

This is kind of thing they did in Soviet Russia. Only we have more complicated algorithms and silver-tongued "experts" that make it all seem legit.
 

watoos

(7,142 posts)
6. This is nothing new
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 09:21 AM
Aug 2013

It's the way they have always calculated unemployment. It's common knowledge that the real figure is higher.

 

phleshdef

(11,936 posts)
12. LOL, the same thing they did in Soviet Russia?
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 01:26 PM
Aug 2013

Do tell us, what did they do in Soviet Russia? Did they do a monthly rotating survey of 60,000 households and ask them what their employment status is and then report the numbers as a percentage? Because that's all BLS does and that's all it has done for decades.

reformist2

(9,841 posts)
14. I'm talking about the headline numbers, which are a lie.
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 03:54 PM
Aug 2013

So what if the "experts" can mine the data to find out the truth. All the public hears are the headlines, which say that everything's coming up roses. And just like in the Soviet Union, the people are learning to tune it all out. Because it's garbage.
 

phleshdef

(11,936 posts)
15. Um, no the headline is completely true.
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 03:57 PM
Aug 2013

The headline has ALWAYS been the U3 unemployment number. That's an understood fact. They did their survey and 7.4% of people surveyed were unemployed based on U3 criteria. This Soviet Union crap is just silly.

 

AnotherMcIntosh

(11,064 posts)
19. Fiction is right.
Sat Aug 3, 2013, 04:30 PM
Aug 2013

The government has multiple calculations based both upon numbers that can be verified plus estimates. Even when people cherry-pick the numbers that they want, those numbers that they give rely upon estimates.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

See, e.g.,


And

mahatmakanejeeves

(56,886 posts)
28. I don't want to sound as if I'm shooting the messenger, but
Mon Aug 5, 2013, 08:59 AM
Aug 2013

the chart "Comparison of BLS Alternative National Unemployment Rates," produced by Veronique de Rugy and Jason Fichtner of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, should come with a disclaimer. Yes, it is using BLS data. Note, though, that Veronique de Rugy used to write a column for the Washington Examiner, so she does have a partisan viewpoint. Further, the Mercatus Center used to be headed by Wendy Gramm, whose husband Phil Gramm spearheaded the move to gut the Glass-Steagall Act when he was in the Senate. As for Wendy, she was on the board of directors of Enron.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercatus_Center

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil_Gramm

United States Senate

Gramm was one of five co-sponsors of the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000. One provision of the bill is often referred to as the "Enron loophole" because some critics blame the provision for permitting the Enron scandal to occur.
....


2007 mortgage and 2008 financial & economic crises

Some economists state that the 1999 legislation spearheaded by Gramm and signed into law by President Clinton – the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act — was significantly to blame for the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis and 2008 global economic crisis. The Act is most widely known for repealing portions of the Glass–Steagall Act, which had regulated the financial services industry. The Act passed the House and Senate by an overwhelming majority on November 4, 1999.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendy_Gramm

Wendy Lee Gramm (born 1945) is an American economist and a distinguished senior scholar at George Mason University's Mercatus Center, a free-market think tank based in Washington D.C. She is also the wife of former United States Senator Phil Gramm. Gramm has gained notoriety for her role in the Enron scandal.

Biography

Wendy Lee Gramm was born in Hawaii and is of Korean and Hawaiian ancestry. She received a B.A. degree in economics from Wellesley College in 1966 and a Ph. D. in economics from Northwestern University in 1971. In her role at the Mercatus Center, Gramm generally calls for deregulation of the energy industry. Previously, Gramm held several positions in the Reagan Administration, including heading the Commodity Futures Trading Commission from 1988 to 1993. After a lobbying campaign from Enron, the CFTC exempted it from regulation in trading of energy derivatives. Subsequently, Gramm resigned from the CFTC and took a seat on the Enron Board of Directors and served on its Audit Committee. While on the board of directors she received donations from Enron to support the Mercatus Center.


I just want to point that out. Thank you for posting it anyway, as it does provide information that you wouldn't read in the newspaper or see on television. As I say repeatedly:

The large print giveth, and the fine print taketh away.

mahatmakanejeeves

(56,886 posts)
8. In Response to Some Disbelief Regarding the Validity of the Numbers:
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 11:06 AM
Aug 2013

PBS's Paul Solman looks at the figures for June.

Boffo BLS Jobs Data! But -- the New Jobs Are Only Part-time
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/businessdesk/2013/07/boffo-bls-jobs-data-but----the.html

And indeed, the number of unemployed in America actually rose last month. Not by much, once the data are seasonally adjusted for the onset of summer. But there are still some 12 million people officially "unemployed" in this country, a country in which you must have, in the past seven days, both looked for work and worked not even one solitary hour to be counted as "unemployed," which the BLS reports as "U-3" (for "Unemployment 3&quot . ... The government also reports a "U-4," "U-5" and "U-6," however. They add in, successively, members of the workforce who have looked for work not in the past week but within the past year -- so-called "discouraged workers" -- and part-timers who tell the survey takers they are looking for full-time work.

U-6 includes all of these people. What happened to it in June? It rose -- dramatically: from 13.8 percent to 14.3 percent. That's mainly because those working part-time "for economic reasons" -- i.e., through no fault of their own -- skyrocketed by more than 300,000, even after the seasonal adjustment. (Unadjusted, the raw data show an increase of more than 800,000.)

The total? More than 8 million Americans who were working part-time, even though they say they want a full-time job -- in addition, remember, to the 12 million officially unemployed. And if you count all part-time workers in America -- those who worked between one and 34 hours in the past week -- the total is now up above 27 million, several hundred thousand more than it was a year ago.
....

On this page, we calculate a number even more inclusive than the U-6. We call it, predictably enough, "U-7." It adds to the part-timers and "discouraged" workers in the government's U-6 everyone who tells the BLS they want a full-time job but can't find one. Thus, it includes people who haven't looked for work in the past 12 months -- people the government drops from the workforce entirely. U-7, by contrast, treats these people as super-discouraged.


 

matthews

(497 posts)
9. Yeah, right...
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 11:18 AM
Aug 2013

OFFICIAL U1 to U6 stats from the BLs

U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force (14.0%)

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

***

July Jobs Report Masks Real Problems In U.S. Labor Market

Posted: 08/02/2013 8:31 am EDT | Updated: 08/02/2013 10:23 am EDT


The "U-6" unemployment rate, which adds together unemployed people, those who are working part-time because they can't find anything better, and some people who have recently just given up looking for work in despair, was 14 percent, down from 14.3 percent in June.

The median duration of unemployment fell to 15.7 weeks from 16.3 weeks in June, the lowest level since May 2009, but still higher than during every other recession since 1967.

Average hourly wages fell 0.1 percent in July and are up just 1.9 percent in the past year, barely enough to keep up with inflation. The majority of the jobs that have been created during the recovery have been low-paying jobs, worsening income inequality and keeping the economy sluggish.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/02/july-jobs-report-unemployment-rate_n_3690424.html

***

Unemployment Rate - U6
2000 - 2013

U6:

This augments U5 by including part-time workers to the unemployment rate calculation. The addition of part-time workers adds a full 2-3 percentage points to the official unemployment rate. This measure of unemployment is perhaps the most comprehensive measure of labor resource unemployment available.

http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp

***

cstanleytech

(26,080 posts)
22. The irony is that in the long term the rich are going to end up
Sun Aug 4, 2013, 01:45 AM
Aug 2013

shooting themselves in the foot because eventually the people do wake up like they did in France during the revolution and the first in line back then for the chopping block were the rich but by then it was to late for them to do anything except lose their heads.

cstanleytech

(26,080 posts)
25. Maybe, maybe not. Depends how the republicans handle things like
Sun Aug 4, 2013, 06:07 PM
Aug 2013

for example if they are really stupid and go as far as to try and cut VA benefits off for military veterans which knowing the republicans they have it on their to do list.

mahatmakanejeeves

(56,886 posts)
11. Thank you for your kind words.
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 12:54 PM
Aug 2013

It's 90 percent cut and paste though. I have the explanatory information in place ahead of time. As 8:30 a.m. rolls around, I hit "refresh" on the BLS page every few seconds. When the press release goes out, I add the headline and post the thread. I go back to add or revise the posted material from the press release.

I do like to be prompt.

Thank you again. Best wishes.

DallasNE

(7,392 posts)
13. A Pretty Poor Number Overall
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 01:29 PM
Aug 2013

It is below the average for the last 12 months and the prior two months were also revised downward by nearly 30,000 so this is a really soft number. Government showed an increase of 1,000 but that contrasts favorably with the recent average of -10,000. Combined with tepid GDP growth it points to more muddling along and at perhaps even a slowing of economic activity. Not to worry though, corporate earnings are beating expectations and the stock market roars.

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