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dipsydoodle

(42,239 posts)
Mon Aug 12, 2013, 04:50 AM Aug 2013

Egypt police fail to start operation to disperse pro-Mursi camps

Source: Reuters

(Reuters) - Egyptian security forces held off on Monday from launching operations to disperse Islamist supporters of deposed President Mohamed Mursi that officials had said would start at dawn.

Security sources and a government official had said police would take initial action against Muslim Brotherhood sit-ins in two areas of Cairo early on Monday to end a six-week street standoff between crowds demanding Mursi's reinstatement and the government installed after the army toppled him on July 3.

It was not clear whether police would start a risky and potentially bloody confrontation with thousands of supporters of Egypt's first democratically elected president later in the day.

>

One security source said action against the protesters had been delayed because larger crowds had arrived at the protest camps after news broke that a crackdown was imminent.

Read more: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/08/12/uk-egypt-protests-idUKBRE97514U20130812

8 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Egypt police fail to start operation to disperse pro-Mursi camps (Original Post) dipsydoodle Aug 2013 OP
"Egyptian police fail to murder Egyptians this morning" Scootaloo Aug 2013 #1
The main thing should be to avoid bloodshed and maintain security. David__77 Aug 2013 #2
I think John2 Aug 2013 #3
The Brotherhood are part of the electorate. dipsydoodle Aug 2013 #4
I don't John2 Aug 2013 #5
Most non-majorities dislike having others views forced on them. Igel Aug 2013 #7
Obviously again trying to show restraint jessie04 Aug 2013 #6
or do not trust their troops happyslug Aug 2013 #8

David__77

(23,344 posts)
2. The main thing should be to avoid bloodshed and maintain security.
Mon Aug 12, 2013, 05:33 AM
Aug 2013

Both at the same time. If protest does not impact the right of others to work, education, etc., then let them gather. Certainly do not pre-announce actions in a way to mobilize one's opponents.

 

John2

(2,730 posts)
3. I think
Mon Aug 12, 2013, 05:58 AM
Aug 2013

they should let them have their sit ins. If they are peaceful and not disrupting normal activities, they should let them protest. That is part of the political process. I wouldn't characterize the crowd as all Egyptians though. They are people supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. They represent a religious cult. They should ignore them and go about regular business.They should hold their elections, and if the Muslim Brotherhood wants to participate let them do so. Just take religion out of the Politics period. Let them practice their religion in private.

 

John2

(2,730 posts)
5. I don't
Mon Aug 12, 2013, 06:31 AM
Aug 2013

think anybody is keeping them from participating. They just don't want them to force their religious views on others. Their religion restricts the Freedoms of others. That was the agreement in the Interim Constitution of the Revolution which Morsi violated.

I read it, and parts of it conflicted with other parts. Part of the Document guaranteed individual rights, just like our Constitution. Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood tried to change that. That is what the real problem was. They were trying to place their religion as supreme law. That upset the other groups.

The Muslim Brotherhood was banned in Egypt and that is part of what you see is happening in Syria now. They are against anything that is secularist. What alerted the military and other groups to what Morsi and the Brotherhood was up to was their calls for Egyptians to go to War in Syria. That call was actually for the Muslim Brotherhood followers. They were training and he was eventially going to replace the military of Egypt under their control.

To understand what is going on, you should attention to the voices, the Western Media is not reporting. Whether you beleive it or not, Assad has more support than is being reported from Christian groups, not only in Syria but other countries. Particularly among the religious hiearchy of the Greek Orthodox Church. They have been issuing Decrees of their own against the Muslim Brotherhood. Several of their priests have been kidnapped and killed by the rebels in Syria. Some of the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood fled or were exiled from Syria to other countries After Assad's father cracked down on them. The same thing that was happening in Syria at the time was happening in Egypt also to the Brotherhood. Al Qaeda is an off shoot of the Brotherhood too. The bottomline is the Muslim Brotherhood is not just seeking control in Egypt, but establishing a religious Caliphate across the entire Middle East. Once they do that, then they will take on Israel. They will be very glad for the West to help them.

Igel

(35,282 posts)
7. Most non-majorities dislike having others views forced on them.
Mon Aug 12, 2013, 10:44 AM
Aug 2013

Religious is just a particular button to push to make it even worse for some people.

It's not just an Egyptian religion-based feature of democracies. You get elected and ram very partisan-skewed views and programs down the opposing party's throats and you'll usually find they don't like it.


The US screwed itself as far as any credibility with the MB when it was politically important for (D) to be so anti-(R) that when republicans said nasty things about the MB prominent Democrats said they had moderated, they had reformed, they were, essentially, good guys. And any claims to the contrary were obviously false and the conservatives were spewing Islamophobic, anti-Arab hate. After all, there are US organizations allied with the MB. And we hear claims that those organizations are good and decent and it's pure Islamophobia to condemn them.

See, it gets really, really complicated when you're "reality-based" and think everybody has to be either good or bad.

Pelosi did the same foolish, millisecond-term thinking when she objected to archconservatives' portraying Assad as an oppressive authoritarian, visited Syria, and declared him a reformer. And she's still hard-pressed because Assad's no saint, the rebels aren't exactly nice guys, but the McCains are still pushing for forcible ouster of Assad.

 

happyslug

(14,779 posts)
8. or do not trust their troops
Mon Aug 12, 2013, 10:59 AM
Aug 2013

One of the problems of Egypt, is that while their police are "All Volunteer", their army is a draftee army. One of the characteristics of a Draftee, universal service army is that the enlistee ranks tend to think just like the people of the same country. In Egypt, that means the 50% of the population who voted for Mursi (and the 70% of the country that voted for the Moslem Brotherhood or the even further to the right Salafi.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian_presidential_election,_2012

A good comparison between the two types of army is Vietnam and Iraq/Afghanistan. In Vietnam the majority of Americans supported the war in Vietnam till the Summer of 1968. As in most wars, support for the war peaked at its beginning and declines afterward (and that was true of WWII, Korea, Vietnam and Iraq/Afghanistan). It was a rapid decline after the Tet Offensive in January/February 1968. The US Army in Vietnam quickly followed that decline. This is typical of a Draftee Universal Service Army, it is a lously army for Colonial wars.

On the other hand a Mercenary Army will stay effective, even as support for a war declines. Thus one of the reason the US Army went from a Draftee Army to an All Volunteer Army (a Mercenary army, in all but name) was that the ruling elite of the US saw how fast the US Army had declined once Vietnam no longer had popular support.

In Iraq and Afghanistan the US Army was All Volunteer, and the US Army stayed effective even as popular support for each war declined. You had popular support for invading Afghanistan, but not for staying. The War Against Iraq NEVER had popular support. The difference was the US Army was "All Volunteer" and thus the fact that most Americans opposed the war had little or no effect on them, unlike Vietnam where the lack of popular support lead to a rapid decline in the Army.

What has this to do with Egypt? The Egyptian Army is Draftee/Universal Service NOT a Mercenary "All Volunteer" army like the US Army. As such the enlistee ranks reflect what the majority of Egyptians believe and support, and in this case that appears to be the Moslem Brotherhood. Thus the Army is unreliable to suppress the people of Egypt, its officer corp (and to a limited extent is NCO corp) will support such a suppression of such an order was given. The problem is will the enlistee ranks do so?

Another factor is the present situation appears to be class based conflict. The poor (the lowest 60% of the population) tends to support the Moslem Brotherhood and its allies, while the next 30% supports the Government more due to fears that they privileges (Mostly positions where they can make more money then the lower 60%) will be taken away. In the long run, they will benefit, but in the short term they will suffer and to avoid that suffering they support the Government. The Army leadership is either the .1% ruling elite, or closely allied with the rest of the .1%. The Company Grade officers (Captains on down) are in the 1% (as are all officers in any army) but being closer to the NCOs and enlistees know how they will jump. In between are the field grade officers (Majors to Colonels) who want to become Generals but also see most of them will not AND interact with the Company grade officers and get a feel for what the enlisted ranks will do.

Thus the High Command has a feel for what the troops will do, and I suspect do not trust them. Given the nature of the Military, the enlistee ranks have no organization to act independently of the High Command, but that does NOT mean they will obey orders they disagree with. I suspect the Egyptian High Command knows that the Egyptian Enlisted ranks will not revolt, but they also will not put down a revolt.

Thus it is up to the mercenary police force to put down these sit down strikers. I suspect the police do NOT have enough policemen to do the job and have asked for troops. The Army High Command does not want to send in troops, for they remember Tiananmen Square, where troops who supported the protesters were sent in by the Chinese Military. Since they supported the protesters, they just sat around doing nothing. Other troops had to be sent in from other areas to actual suppress the protesters.

Please note, the Chinese Army is a Mercenary Army/All Volunteer Army, unlike the Soviet Army of the past, of the Russian Army of today. The Chinese army units are tied in with various leaders of the Communist party. The first army was controlled by a leader that supported the protesters, and thus his troops were NOT going to do anything he oppose even if ordered by the Chinese High Command. The second army sent it was controlled by a Politician who wanted the protesters suppressed and sent for the troops loyal to him to do so.

Given that the Army of Egypt is NOT an all volunteer army, its enlistees reflects what the people want NOT what the High Command wants and thus a lously army to suppress protesters who have massive support within Egypt. Without additional troops the Police may not have enough people to suppress these protesters, and thus the Police can not remove them. I suspect the army is waiting to see if the Police can suppress them, AND to wait to see if the number of protesters declines (as it tends to do) so that troops are not needed. All of this shows a lack of reliability on the enlisted ranks of the Egyptian army to put down this type of protest.

Side note: One of the aspects of the 1968-1975 period was the decline of the US Army due to the decline in support for the war in Vietnam. White the fighting ability of the troops seems to decline after 1968 in Vietnam, the overall fighting ability of the US Army stayed high, for most American still supported NATO and the US Commitments to NATO. Thus many of the same troops who were becoming more and more unreliable in Vietnam, would have become reliable in any war in Europe. Thus if Israel attacks Egypt, the Egyptian army will fight with intensity against such an attack and follow orders to do so, at the same time refuse to follow orders to put down these protesters. Such conflicts also reflect the view of Egyptians, they support the protesters AND will defend the country from any attack. The US switch from a Draftee Army to an All Volunteer army reflected a desire to have an Army that would fight unpopular wars as oppose to wars with popular support (i.e. an army usable in attacks on third would countries as oppose to defending Europe from a Soviet attack).

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