Orders for U.S. Durable Goods Fell More Than Forecast
Source: Bloomberg
By Michelle Jamrisko - Aug 26, 2013 8:56 AM ET
Orders for U.S. durable goods fell more than forecast in July after three months of increases, indicating manufacturing will be slow to strengthen.
Bookings (DGNOCHNG) for goods meant to last at least three years decreased 7.3 percent, the most since August 2012, after a 3.9 percent gain in June, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 4 percent drop. Orders waned for aircraft and capital goods such as computers and electrical equipment.
The report shows struggling overseas markets and the effects of federal government spending cuts are lingering and holding back manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of the economy. Further improvement in the labor market and sustained demand for automobiles and housing would help spur production through the second half of the year.
The data support our view that the fiscal drag will last longer -- part of the decline was from defense -- and growth will stay moderate, said Michael Gapen, senior U.S. economist at Barclays Plc in New York. We are in a highly uncertain environment.
Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-26/orders-for-u-s-durable-goods-fell-more-than-forecast-in-july.html
Here's the source document from the Department of Commerce:
Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers Shipments, Inventories and Orders July 2013
http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf
New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in July decreased $17.8 billion or 7.3 percent to $226.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following three consecutive monthly increases and followed a 3.9 percent June increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 6.7 percent.
Transportation equipment, also down following three consecutive monthly increases, led the decrease, $16.7 billion or 19.4 percent to $69.7 billion. This was led by nondefense aircraft and parts, which decreased $14.5 billion.
Shipments
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in July, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.8 billion or 0.3 percent to $228.8 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent June decrease.
Computers and electronic products, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $0.9 billion or 3.2 percent to $26.6 billion. This followed a 1.1 percent June increase.
snappyturtle
(14,656 posts)economist but it just makes sense that if the orders aren't there,
the workers aren't needed. (?)
happyslug
(14,779 posts)Three months of drop in sales was a sign you were in a recession and needed to do something about it. Today our media waits for an "official" announcement that we are in a recession, but that is made about a year after we enter a recession. The "Old" test was three months of drop sales in durable goods. It is still the best test we have to see if we are in a recession TODAY, as opposed to a year ago.
Given that they was an increase in durable goods sold in June, this may be a start of a recession, or just a temporary drop between increases. We have to see what the next two months produce.