These lobby groups do have influence, of course... but it's mostly with regards to a subject that the US government doesn't really give a flying fuck about - the rights of Palestinians, any situations involving Jordan or Lebanon. Where Uncle Sma doesn't care, he'll go along with the loud voice greasing his palm.
However, where there is actual US interest? Such as in Egypt or now Iran? Israel either gets on the boat or learns to swim. So too when the US public manages to drown out the lobbying, as happened with regard to Syria. In the specific case of Iran, the US has a keen interest in reestablishing positive relations with that state - not just in the interest of international goodwill... but also because if the US doesn't, Russia or China will. ANY interference in US interests - especially when those interests are open and being conducted at the very moment - is met with very little tolerance.
Also to bear in mind... even the Bush Administration made it perfectly clear that if Israel hied off on its own to attack Iran, it would be doing so without an ounce of American support in any capacity (Except, perhaps, moral support; hooray, cheerleaders). I can't Imagine that Obama would be any more amiable to the notion, especially since it's his administration conducting talks.
For an example of this, think back to 2008. In the Caucasus, there is a nation named Georgia. it's a strong American ally, has been ever ince it gained independence from the USSR. In 2008, Russia lifted sanctions against Abkhazia and south Ossetia, Georgian territories that wish to break away from Georgia to become independent states, and mulled over recognizing both formally. In response, Georgia began a military buildup in the regions, and even began taking shots in South Ossetia. Now the trouble here is that the people of South Ossetia are recognized as Russian citizens by Russia. So Russia rolls its own troops in. Georgia immediately runs to the United States and NATO, demanding military backing to fight off the Russians. The US told our "strong regional ally" to get bent, basically; They had started the fight, it was not in our interests to move against Russia, and Tbilisi could just figure it out its own damn self.
Also consider the case of Iraq. The Us was great buddies with Saddam's Iraq - here we had a fascist strongman who would purge all the commies from his country, all while throwing gas canisters at the Iranians after their revolution. What a swell guy! We funneled him intelligence, weaponry, money, everything he could want. As it turns out the Iranians are pretty damn good asskickers, and even with support from the US, the Soviets, and Saudi Arabia, Saddam couldn't make headway. So in 1989, he sat down with a US ambassador, and started talking about Kuwait. Saddam regarded Kuwait as a breakaway Iraqi province, and wanted to know the Us position on Iraq "reasserting sovereignty" over it. The answer he got was a green light - he was basically told that the United States does not give a flying fuck what happens to Kuwait. He invades, Bush waggles his finger for the TV, and sends troops to Saudi Arabia (but not to Kuwait.) And then Saddma oversteps. He invades Saudi Arabia on January 29 - namely the podunk border town of Khafji, where Iraqi troops trade fire with Saudi and Qatari defenders. The United States then basically demolishes every capability Iraq has for ANYTHING, for the next twelve years, before finally putting a bullet in the country's head in 2003. He was our buddy, until he went about a hundred yards too far.
In 1956, Israel became a catspaw for France and the UK, accepting a deal in which Israel would invade Egypt, capture the suez, and cede it back to French and British control in a "peace deal" that would grant Israel control of the Sinai. it went off as planned, Israel rolled over Egyptian forces all the way, and captured the Suez. But instead of a peace deal and doubling its real estate, Israel got a joint ultimatum - pull back all the way to Israel, or you will be bombed into so much grit. Who issues the joint ultimatum? Was it two of the Arab states? Was it France and the UK renigging on the deal? Nope. it was the United States and Russia, at the height of the cold war, locking arms and threatening to introduce Israel to the hardest sort of asskicking it could imagine, if they did not leave Egyptian territory posthaste. Because the Us and Russia are such buddies with Egypt? Nope; because returning control of the Suez to British and french control would return more power to these former empires than either new empire wanted them to have. Mind that both the US and USSR had been trying to cozy up to Israel at this point, each seeing a possible foothold in the middle east. But just like that, Israel was told to GTFO. And Israel did so. when it took the Sinai again in '67, it was careful to leave the Suez exactly as it was.
These are examples of relations between the United States and its client states. The client state can putter around doing whatever asinine bullshit it wants, and the US will smile and nod like a doddering grandpa. But the moment that asinine bullshit poses an actual threat to vested US interests, grandpa whacks the offender upside the head with his cane.
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