Venezuela arrests three air force generals 'plotting coup'

[Zorro]

Source: Reuters

Venezuela has arrested three air force generals accused of plotting a coup in league with opposition politicians during the country's rumbling civil unrest, the president said on Tuesday.

The move follows weeks of violence around anti-government protests that have killed 36 people in the nation's worst unrest for a decade.

In recent years, Venezuela's socialist government has routinely accused its rivals of scheming to seize power by force and assassinate its leaders, although it has rarely followed up with concrete proof of such headline-grabbing claims.

"Last night we captured three generals ... who tried to raise the air force against the legitimate, constitutional government," President Nicolas Maduro said on state TV during a meeting with South American foreign ministers in Caracas.


Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/venezuela-arrests-three-air-force-generals-plotting-coup-182732786.html

[The Magistrate]

1. The Charge Is Quite Plausible, Sir

I would be inclined to wager it is true.

[bemildred]

11. It does seem consistent with the historical record.

Coups against left-wing governments in Latin America, it's always a plausible idea.

[The Magistrate]

12. And In This Case, Sir

There is no doubt whatever the U.S. was behind the coup attempted against Col. Chavez not too long ago.

[bemildred]

13. I think a lot of wishful thinking went into this one.

So I'm ambivalent about how deeply our foriegn policy wonks were meddling in this one, not that I doubt they were.

But it's been very badly timed, lot's of other stories competing for attention. I suppose there was a good plausibe argument beforehand. But anyway, rotten timing if one was trying to foment a ruckus, too many other bigger crises. Pre-empted by Putin.

And there was a story I read somewhere a few weeks back to the effect that this was done partly to keep the opposition relevant politically the next few years.

But I expect the result will be the opposite of that.

That said, Maduro needs to calm down, or something like that, what you were just talking about in that other thread, act like he belongs up there.

[The Magistrate]

14. The Problem Here, Sir, Is That there Really Was An Indispensible Man....

The thing in Venezuela always hinged on the extraordinary character and charisma of Col. Chavez, and without him, it necessarily degenerates into something similar to what followed the death of Peron in Argentina, albeit from a left direction: a patronage machine quite as willing to crack heads as mulct the treasury. There is still some value as a 'churning' in it, mind: there will be people rising and prosperous who would never have seen more than a few pennies otherwise, and there will be people whose ancestors ran things who find themselves in penurious straits, and such revolutions of Fortune's Wheel are often the nearest thing to justice and change people ever see....

[hack89]

15. In SA they respect a strong leader - Chavez was such a leader.

Maduro is weak and feckless - I can imagine that the VZ military has little respect for him nor do they fear him. They remember Chavez's attempted coup and I am sure some are looking at the present situation as an opportunity.

[The Magistrate]

20. There Is a Divide Between Generals and Privates There, Sir

Which can be important. In the earlier coup against Col. Chavez, a number of generals supported the plot, but since the troops would not follow, they could not deliver, and had to back down, and even in some instances change sides before the end of the episode.

An air force, since its main combatant elements are officers, is a bit less subject to this sort upstairs/downstairs division. Enlisted men may be able to hamstring an air force, but they cannot wield its combat potential.

[hack89]

21. Chavez created an independent military force answerable directly to the president

designed, I suspect, to ensure he had loyal forces to counter any military shenanigans. With his praetorian guard standing by, I am sure Maduro feels confident that he can challenge the military. I suspect you will see future arrests and purges as he tries to tamp down discontent within the officer corp.

[The Magistrate]

22. You Seem To Mis-Understand The Point, Sir

Col. Chavez was popular in the barracks, and the coup was attempted from the officers' club. If the men with the guns do not follow officers into rebellion, officers wind up cashiered at best, and hanged at worst.

There is no particular reason to believe President Maduro does not enjoy the same popularity with enlisted ranks as his predecessor did. Nothing yet indicates the unrest involves much beyond bourgeois elements.

What a force directly answerable to the President is aimed at is some of the local police forces, which remain bastions of reaction and continue to construe their duties as involving protection of the wealthy and their retainers rather than enforcement of law and order.

[hack89]

23. Why would he be popular?

a lot of Chavez's support in the barracks was due to his image as a dynamic military leader - a warrior. He was also a truly charismatic leader. Maduro is a bus driver with no military experience. And he has absolutely zero charisma.

Secondly, the soldiers come from the economic class who are suffering the most. As all of Chavez's changes are swept away by economic mismanagement, inflation, shortages and sky rocketing violent crime, there is no reason to believe that they will stand by as they see themselves and their families plunged back into poverty. I don't think Maduro has the reserve of good will that Chavez had - the barracks will be impatient for quick results. And when he can't deliver, they will shift allegiances. Buying loyalty is a double edged sword.

[The Magistrate]

27. There Is Always A Question Of What Is The Actual Source Of Popularity, Sir

Col. Chavez was certainly popular, and so were his attitudes and policies, among the great mass of less well off Venezuelans, from who come the rank and file of the armed forces. You are betting the policies are not popular among such people, and that none of Col. Chavez' popularity will transfer via the policies to his chosen heir. So far, that seems a very poor bet.

[hack89]

29. Time will tell. If they can fix the economy then all is well

if they can't, then all bets are off. If things continue as they have then it is hard to see how VZ will avoid a prolonged period of social unrest. A very unpredictable situation to put it mildly.

[The Magistrate]

32. Fix It Whose Standard, Sir, And In The Face Of What?

There is no doubt whatever economic warfare is being waged against the Bolivarian government, both from without and within, and that this accounts for a good deal of the apparent economic dislocation. In present circumstances, a 'prolonged period of social unrest' would most likely end with a rising against the bourgeois opposition, not the government. I would prefer not to see this outcome, but it is being actively courted by oligarchs and banksters busily over-playing their hand in tonier neighborhoods of Caracas....

[hack89]

33. It is government mismanagement of the economy that is the problem

the fundamental problem they face is a lack of dollars. Companies cannot buy the imported goods they need. The currency laws that created this problem were passed by the government.

They also mismanaged the oil industry. Not only have they scared off critically needed foreign expertise and capital, they compounded their problem by pouring oil revenues into social programs while neglecting to invest in infrastructure. Now they have declining oil production and thus declining oil revenue. They even have to import gasoline from the United States to meet domestic demand.

VZ ran up the credit cards for 15 years - now the bills are coming due.

[The Magistrate]

34. That Is The Standard Line, Sir, Pressed By Capitalists In the Capital v. Social Contest

I am not too impressed by it.

[hack89]

35. Didn't think you would be. nt

[bemildred]

26. Well, not this time, Sir, I agree with that.

I've seen stirring examples of waving the bloody shirt from all sides, but it's not going anywhere.

I am reminded of a quote from Orwell about the concessions the British establishment made to the working class during WWII, which I will paraphrase: "It wasn't that they couldn't fight the war without us, but they couldn't win."

[The Magistrate]

28. I Agree, Sir

I do not think this bourgeois outbreak is going anywhere. President Maduro seems to be displaying pretty good judgement in his means of constricting it, and putting it on a road to extinguishment....

[hrmjustin]

2. Could be true but it might nit be.

[iandhr]

3. Is this real?

Or something the government trumpeted up to disract from the mess Venezuela is in right now?

Both scenarios seem plausible.

[geretogo]

4. This is something the U.S. has a lot of experience at .

[mathematic]

5. Biggest surprise: Venezuela had 3 air force generals.

Guess they won't be needing them since Air Canada decided to stop flying planes into Venezuela.

[Comrade Grumpy]

6. Yuk yuk yuk. n/t

[reddread]

7. look around the world baby it cannot be denied

#t=242

[MADem]

8. They were probably plotting it with Diosdado Cabello, if at all...not the "opposition."

And, as the article states:

In recent years, Venezuela's socialist government has routinely accused its rivals of scheming to seize power by force and assassinate its leaders, although it has rarely followed up with concrete proof of such headline-grabbing claims.

[DeSwiss]

9. Coup?

Who said anything about a coup!?!?! We were just arranging your going-away party!

- Because you're sure acting like you don't want your job.

[hack89]

10. Emulating their idol St Hugo? Nt

[Comrade Grumpy]

17. Well, if they are, they will go to prison and serve their time.

And then get out and run for president and be elected.

[hack89]

19. There will be no coup

if Maduro allows elections there will be a peaceful transition of power.

[Zorra]

30. The Right Wing hasn't won an election in forever in Venezuela.

They came close in the last election, but I think after this recent failed coup attempt the Right Wing Opposition has totally blown their chances in the next election. One of the main reasons this coup attempt was undertaken was because the RW Opposition has lost something like 18 of the last 19 elections and they are desperate to take over the government by any means possible.

Most of the protests in Venezuela have been taking place in the more affluent RW areas of Venezuela, and the protesters are mostly right wingers.

Maduro won't try to prevent elections, no matter what, and certainly not because he's worried about losing. The RW Wingers did him a huge favor by fomenting this failed coup attempt, and for the overwhelming majority of people in Venezuela, life is going on as usual, except many are not happy with the RW nuisance that is burning trash and barricading streets.

Since 1998 elections in Venezuela have been highly automated, and administered by a non-partisan National Electoral Council, with poll workers drafted via a lottery of registered voters. Polling places are equipped with multiple high-tech touch-screen DRE voting machines, one to a "mesa electoral", or voting "table". After the vote is cast, each machine prints out a paper ballot, or VVPAT, which is inspected by the voter and deposited in a ballot box belonging to the machine's table. The voting machines perform in a stand-alone fashion, disconnected from any network until the polls close.[8] Voting session closure at each of the voting stations in a given polling center is determined either by the lack of further voters after the lines have emptied, or by the hour, at the discretion of the president of the voting table.

As part of the election administration the National Electoral Council planned a post-election audit of 54% of polling places, comparing the electronic records with the paper trail.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuelan_presidential_election,_2013

Former US President Carter: Venezuelan Electoral System “Best in the World”

[hack89]

31. Time will tell. nt

[fasttense]

16. Seems Venezuela's military (and the Chamber of Commerce)

like to start coups.

"Chávez was initially detained by members of the military and of pro-business elites represented by Venezuelan Federation of Chambers of Commerce (Fedecámaras) president Pedro Carmona, who was declared as the interim president."

I doesn't hurt that the Obama administration has a specific line item in his budget to fund opposition groups. So, I'm sure that at least some of our tax dollars got into this latest coup.

There is nothing more hated by US rich oligarchy than socialism in South America.

[hack89]

18. Chávez tried it while he was in the military

so there certainly is a history to consider.

[fasttense]

24. I doubt Chavez got any funding from the US.

But yes, coups seem to be almost common among the Venezuelan military.

[hack89]

25. His was a home grown coup. nt