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bemildred

(90,061 posts)
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 01:37 PM Jul 2014

Ukraine: Donetsk bridges blown up to halt access to rebel-held city

Source: AP

Three bridges on key roads leading into Donetsk were blown up Monday – an apparent attempt to slow down any possible assault by Ukrainian forces on the country’s main rebel-held city.

Fighters driven out of Slavyansk and other eastern towns by the Ukrainian army had regrouped in Donetsk, a city of one million where pro-Russia separatists have declared independence under the Donetsk People’s Republic. Pavel Gubarev, the region’s self-described governor, had promised “real partisan war around the whole perimeter of Donetsk” before thousands of supporters at a rally Sunday.

It was not exactly clear who blew up the highway and train bridges Monday, but their destruction would most benefit the rebels.

In the village of Novobakhmutivka, where a rail line crosses over a highway out of Donetsk, an 11-wagon cargo train was perched perilously on the collapsed bridge. The road leads toward Slavyansk, a former insurgent stronghold that was recaptured Saturday by Ukrainian troops after intense fighting.

Read more: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/ukraine/article19487901/

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Ukraine: Donetsk bridges blown up to halt access to rebel-held city (Original Post) bemildred Jul 2014 OP
Also Cuts Them Off From Supply, Sir.... The Magistrate Jul 2014 #1
They seem to be toast, Sir. Apparently they hope to make it expensive. nt bemildred Jul 2014 #4
I Tend To Agree, Sir The Magistrate Jul 2014 #5
If you remember Sir, some time back, I said: bemildred Jul 2014 #6
I Do, Sir The Magistrate Jul 2014 #8
I fear more of this Duckhunter935 Jul 2014 #15
Seems likely, nt bemildred Jul 2014 #21
Why Ukraine Can't Win An All-Out Military Victory, And Shouldn't Try bemildred Jul 2014 #2
I Disagree With Mr. Bremmer, Sir The Magistrate Jul 2014 #7
I would call it a gambit, he's a guy that likes to keep his options open. bemildred Jul 2014 #12
Blockade And slow Constriction Would Be My Course, Sir, Certainly The Magistrate Jul 2014 #13
I agree Duckhunter935 Jul 2014 #16
Conciliatory noises would be helpful too, and letting food in, and so on, like somebody said. bemildred Jul 2014 #24
Yes. If you look at a map, destroying bridges on the rivers entering Donetsk and JDPriestly Jul 2014 #43
Well, it's flat. No natural barriers except the rivers, perhaps some forests, and roads everywhere. bemildred Jul 2014 #64
I am not sure of the pronoun reference of "they" after the comma in this sentence. JDPriestly Jul 2014 #74
The Rebels are a combination of rebellious locals and outsiders come in to help. bemildred Jul 2014 #75
I think Putin dipped his toes in the East without committing himself for a swim. Tommy_Carcetti Jul 2014 #31
But why would the Russian oligarchs want to take Ukraine? JDPriestly Jul 2014 #44
Same reason we invaded Iraq--access to energy deposits. geek tragedy Jul 2014 #45
All that gas, at the cost of losing a certain amount of its trade with Europe, its best JDPriestly Jul 2014 #49
Russia thought it could grab East Ukraine because geek tragedy Jul 2014 #50
Yes. Russia would have to invest a lot and would have to be willing to lose JDPriestly Jul 2014 #62
the gambit was whether he could defend it against Ukraine's military geek tragedy Jul 2014 #63
That Last Is The Point, Sir: It Had To be Done On The Down-Low Or It Could Not Be Done At All The Magistrate Jul 2014 #65
Mr. Putin purchased an option on invading Ukraine. geek tragedy Jul 2014 #77
You could ask the same question about Crimea. Tommy_Carcetti Jul 2014 #46
I disgree with Mr. Bremmer too. bemildred Jul 2014 #52
The 'New Russia' Remark, Sir, Certainly Was A Mistake The Magistrate Jul 2014 #71
It is much easier to make messes than to clean them up. nt bemildred Jul 2014 #72
With Ukraine rebels on the ropes, some Russians ask: Where is Putin? bemildred Jul 2014 #3
Putin is pausing so everyone knows who is ballyhoo Jul 2014 #9
Not Much Of A Reason For A Man To Stay On The Firing Line, Sir The Magistrate Jul 2014 #11
I think he might be "forced" to do something, if it gets bloody enough for long enough. bemildred Jul 2014 #14
Agree 100 per cent. A lot may depend how ballyhoo Jul 2014 #18
Your Hopes Get more And More Ephemeral, Sir The Magistrate Jul 2014 #20
No. Financially, war in Ukraine is a loser for Russia. JDPriestly Jul 2014 #48
Well, it's interesting, Benton D Struckcheon Jul 2014 #10
I hope he chooses the path that protects ballyhoo Jul 2014 #17
China, If Anything, Is Licking Its Chops At The Opportunity Weakened Russia Presents, Sir The Magistrate Jul 2014 #22
Indeed, and Moscow would also have to face an even more humiliating reality: geek tragedy Jul 2014 #78
And Even More Humiliating Than That, Sir The Magistrate Jul 2014 #79
the question is how much the Chinese are willing to pretend geek tragedy Jul 2014 #80
I think it is a mistake to assume Putin planned all this. bemildred Jul 2014 #19
Yeah, I got nothing against that. Benton D Struckcheon Jul 2014 #23
Some of the comments on this string are disturbing . . . another_liberal Jul 2014 #25
And When You Started Cheerleading Secessionist Violence, Sir, There Were Human Lives Involved Too The Magistrate Jul 2014 #26
Except for the fact . . . another_liberal Jul 2014 #28
Of Course You Are Being Quoted, Sir: Follow The Link The Magistrate Jul 2014 #32
Follow it yourself, and read more carefully . . . another_liberal Jul 2014 #68
Thank You For The Laugh, Sir The Magistrate Jul 2014 #69
Have fun, Magi. another_liberal Jul 2014 #70
Perhaps if you were more specific? nt bemildred Jul 2014 #27
I'll leave it for others to judge . . . another_liberal Jul 2014 #29
OK. nt bemildred Jul 2014 #30
...but not at all surprising. Union Scribe Jul 2014 #33
Yes . . . another_liberal Jul 2014 #67
The good guys are winning. joshcryer Jul 2014 #38
Good guys? another_liberal Jul 2014 #66
Ukraine tycoon pleads for city’s safety after rebels vow to make stand bemildred Jul 2014 #34
Let Him Buy Out The Shootists, Then, Sir The Magistrate Jul 2014 #36
Ukraine Forces Working to Block Donetsk bemildred Jul 2014 #35
Is It Curtains For Ukraine's Pro-Russia Rebels? Army Moves In To Re-Take Final Eastern Cities bemildred Jul 2014 #37
In some cases it's a good thing for the seccessionist cause. Igel Jul 2014 #39
I think it would be good time for them to leave while they still can. nt bemildred Jul 2014 #40
The Catherina Crowd is scurrying like crazy as well. nt Tommy_Carcetti Jul 2014 #47
I pity them, falling for propaganda so easily. joshcryer Jul 2014 #51
I don't. Benton D Struckcheon Jul 2014 #53
I Tend To Agree, Sir The Magistrate Jul 2014 #55
Reading now. Thx. n/t Benton D Struckcheon Jul 2014 #61
I'll have to assume then that you're in favour dipsydoodle Jul 2014 #58
You may not. Benton D Struckcheon Jul 2014 #60
Putin's silence on Slaviansk signals desire to de-escalate Ukraine crisis bemildred Jul 2014 #41
Ukrainians seek EU asylum as conflict goes on bemildred Jul 2014 #42
Tymoshenko counts on EU assistance in ending war in eastern regions dipsydoodle Jul 2014 #54
Pictures Duckhunter935 Jul 2014 #56
Maybe with a crane. Take a while. bemildred Jul 2014 #57
I agree Duckhunter935 Jul 2014 #59
Another bridge blown up in Donbas dipsydoodle Jul 2014 #73
Ukraine says no more unilateral ceasefires bemildred Jul 2014 #76

The Magistrate

(95,255 posts)
5. I Tend To Agree, Sir
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 01:59 PM
Jul 2014

And part of that expense will be borne by the local populace; this acts to pen the non-combatants in, also.

The Ukrainian forces seem to have had a recent injection of competence, and Putin seems have left the irregulars on their own.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
6. If you remember Sir, some time back, I said:
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 02:02 PM
Jul 2014

a.) They would have to be put down, and Putin would have to allow it.
b.) I feared for the Ukrainian people, who have become a political football.

It is no done deal yet, but that is what it looks like to me still.

 

Duckhunter935

(16,974 posts)
15. I fear more of this
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 02:20 PM
Jul 2014

The Pro-Russian separatists firing heavy weapons from a church and then will complain when they attract return fire.


bemildred

(90,061 posts)
2. Why Ukraine Can't Win An All-Out Military Victory, And Shouldn't Try
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 01:43 PM
Jul 2014

Suddenly, Ukraine’s army is winning. Over the weekend, Kiev’s troops recaptured several cities in the eastern Donetsk region, sending pro-Russian rebels fleeing to strongholds further east. Now, President Petro Poroshenko is planning a “complete blockade” of the region’s two other main cities, Donetsk and Luhansk, according to a Ukrainian television report that quoted the deputy head of the country’s National Defense and Security Council.

That’s a striking turnabout from just a few weeks ago, when Ukraine’s forces seemed ragtag and reluctant to fight. But it doesn’t mean that a military victory is likely, or desirable.

The cities retaken over the past few days were relatively small (the largest, Kramatorsk, has a population of 165,000) and lightly defended. Donetsk, the region’s biggest city with some 1 million inhabitants, is still in the hands of rebels. Rooting them out would be a long and brutal process. “They would have to do it street by street,” says Mark Galeotti, a professor of global affairs at New York University. “The cost in body bags would be high.”

True, Ukraine’s forces are now better trained and equipped than before, thanks in part to $23 million in recent U.S. aid. But they’re still no match for Russia’s military–and Russia won’t let Ukraine retake Donetsk without a serious fight, Ian Bremmer, head of the political risk research firm Eurasia Group, told Bloomberg Television today. Although the flow of aid to the rebels from across Russia’s border appears to have slowed, it could resume at any time, turning the battle for the city into a bloodbath. “I don’t see the Ukrainians holding Donetsk and the Russians sitting on the sidelines,” Bremmer said.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-07-07/why-ukraine-cant-win-an-all-out-military-victory-and-shouldnt-try

The Magistrate

(95,255 posts)
7. I Disagree With Mr. Bremmer, Sir
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 02:06 PM
Jul 2014

I think Russia's entire position here was based on a bluff, and conviction the bluff would not be called. Russia is in no shape to fight a real war in east Ukraine, and face the cost of sanctions and diplomatic and economic isolation it would entail. When Kiev steeled itself to call the bluff, they pushed on an open door.

It remains that, while Putin certainly was willing to take east Ukraine if it could be got, a good portion of this was rooted in a gambit: make it so bad in the east that, when that is stood down, everyone will be so relieved the theft of Crimea will pass as nothing worth a bother, just the new normal....

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
12. I would call it a gambit, he's a guy that likes to keep his options open.
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 02:15 PM
Jul 2014

Bremmer makes some good points, but events are not always cooperative. I don't know enough about the facts on the ground to have opinions about what the Ukraine government ought to do about Donetsk, but I would avoid going into the city if a seige/blockade would serve, and I suspect it would. Supply has been the obvious weakness of the rebels from the beginning, unless Putin is willing to wade much deeper in, and it seems clear he is not.

The Magistrate

(95,255 posts)
13. Blockade And slow Constriction Would Be My Course, Sir, Certainly
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 02:18 PM
Jul 2014

"The soundest policy is to postpone operations till the moral disintegration of foe renders success certain."

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
24. Conciliatory noises would be helpful too, and letting food in, and so on, like somebody said.
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 02:36 PM
Jul 2014

With a bit of effort, one might be able to resolve the problem without much more bloodshed, and that would be much better for the future of Ukraine. There are quite enough enraged idiots running around as it is.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
43. Yes. If you look at a map, destroying bridges on the rivers entering Donetsk and
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 04:08 PM
Jul 2014

then taking Slavyansk and Novobakhmutivka, I'd say that Donetsk is a cooked goose just waiting to be served up.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
64. Well, it's flat. No natural barriers except the rivers, perhaps some forests, and roads everywhere.
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 07:16 PM
Jul 2014

So trying to hole up is not going to work except in urban areas. And they have no logistics base, just what was there, which was not nothing, but you can't fight for long that way.

But why should Kiev play along and destroy the city, when it can just wait them out and look better for doing it? Give the locals reason to expect lenient treatment, and they will help remove them for you before long.

Which is why I say they would do better to leave.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
74. I am not sure of the pronoun reference of "they" after the comma in this sentence.
Tue Jul 8, 2014, 04:40 AM
Jul 2014

Give the locals reason to expect lenient treatment, and they will help remove them for you before long.

Do you mean that the locals will help remove the Russia supporters?

Not only is the terrain flat, but it is only 1 hour and 41 minutes from Mariupol in the South on the Sea of Azov.

The Sea of Azov already has some military history during the Crimean War.

Another major military campaign on the Sea of Azov took place during the Crimean War of 1853–56. A naval and ground campaign pitting the allied navies of Britain and France against Russia took place between May and November 1855. The British and French forces besieged Taganrog, aiming to disrupt Russian supplies to Crimea. Capturing Taganrog would also result in an attack on Rostov, which was a strategic city for Russian support of their Caucasian operations. On 12 May 1855, the allied forces easily captured Kerch and gained access to the Sea of Azov, and on 22 May they attacked Taganrog. The attack failed and was followed by a siege. Despite the vast superiority of the allied forces (about 16,000 soldiers against fewer than 2,000), the city withstood all attempts to capture it, which ended around August 1855 with the retreat of the allied army. Individual coastal attacks continued without success and ceased in October 1855.[14]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_of_Azov

The whole controversy may be about Russia's access to Turkey, the Mediterranean and Syria via the Black Sea. Doesn't seem to make sense, but i wonder about that. Russia wants more influence in the Middle East, I think.l They might want to put pressure on Turkey somehow. I don't know that much about the politics of that area, but looking at the map makes me ask questions.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
75. The Rebels are a combination of rebellious locals and outsiders come in to help.
Tue Jul 8, 2014, 09:21 AM
Jul 2014

"They" is pretty much all of them, since their future is not bright there. The rhetoric from Kiev has been quite eliminationist at times. The divisions in the country are real, and the last 20 years and this crisis have aggravated them. Divisive and corrupt politics has consequences. They may want to live to fight another day. I'm pretty sure Russia would take them back.

Edit: sorry, I tend to be less than clear at times.

Tommy_Carcetti

(43,197 posts)
31. I think Putin dipped his toes in the East without committing himself for a swim.
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 03:02 PM
Jul 2014

Crimea was prime for the taking--the situation in Ukraine was just too unsettled for there to be any type of military response whatsoever, and he had the sizable ethnic Russian population to support a call for annexation. So he carpe diemed knowing there'd never be a better time for him to lay claim to that land he truly believed Russia was entitled to.

Regarding east Ukraine--he would have wanted to add that to the Russian Federation as well. But there were several obstacles present there that weren't present with Crimea. First, the ethnic Russian, while still sizeable, is much smaller there and an overall minority. Secondly, the Ukrainian government was in much better shape to respond that it was in late February 2014. So he went in, but he didn't go all in. I think there were Russian agents mixed in with the locals (as evidenced by Girkin and Borodai), a pretty much free supply of weaponry, and large amounts of mercenary troops who might have had the Kremlin's official blessing (Vostok). He'd see as far as that would take him. If the Ukrainian army was routed and they waived the white flag as it relates to Donetsk and Luhansk, he'd gladly welcome those in. If not--then he'd just play up the plausible deniability angle and be done with it.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
44. But why would the Russian oligarchs want to take Ukraine?
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 04:13 PM
Jul 2014

Russia would have to pay the pensions, etc. for the Ukrainian people, earn the distrust of the Europeans who are a ready market for Russian gas and be forced to invest military hardware and human lives. The equation just does not add up to an easy life for the Russian oligarchs. And for what? A local disagreement in the Ukraine? The Ukraine is a bread basket for Russia. Commerce is worth far more than national pride. The port? More useful in peace than in war.

The disruption in the Ukraine may have propaganda value and national pride-raising value, but financially, I don't see the gain for Russia.

Russia would prefer to sell its weapons abroad. A loss in the Ukraine, which Russia is likely to suffer if s war were to be limited to Ukraine, could even hurt its arms trade. I don't think Russians or Putin are fools.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
45. Same reason we invaded Iraq--access to energy deposits.
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 04:17 PM
Jul 2014

That, and good old fashioned rightwing nationalism. Same reason every land empire has been forged.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
49. All that gas, at the cost of losing a certain amount of its trade with Europe, its best
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 04:34 PM
Jul 2014

customer? I don't think so.

Russia is much smarter to wait until the tensions between the US and Germany over things like spies and surveillance increase and then maybe look into stirring up trouble in Ukraine. But unless our NSA and CIA continue to goof up, Russia will have to wait a long time. In the meantime, the Russian oligarchs will make lots of money from the trade with Europe.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
50. Russia thought it could grab East Ukraine because
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 04:42 PM
Jul 2014

they thought Europe would look the other way and Obama would ignore the whole thing. Land empires are always seeking to grab assets and land, they typically don't give much thought to how expensive those assets are to maintain. One reason the imperial model tends to fail.

He gambled a small amount of political and economic capital, and lost. He's cutting his losses.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
62. Yes. Russia would have to invest a lot and would have to be willing to lose
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 06:55 PM
Jul 2014

a lot to take and hold Donetsk. It's really obvious on a map that the area is very vulnerable to attack from the West.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
63. the gambit was whether he could defend it against Ukraine's military
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 07:04 PM
Jul 2014

on the cheap.

Ukraine's military turned out to be more competent than hoped for.

He would have had to commit real resources, at which point it would have been a public invasion, which would have triggered sector-level sanctions, which would have crippled Russia's economy.

The Magistrate

(95,255 posts)
65. That Last Is The Point, Sir: It Had To be Done On The Down-Low Or It Could Not Be Done At All
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 07:19 PM
Jul 2014

Since clearly now it cannot be, the cannon-fodder he duped have to be written off and left to their fate.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
77. Mr. Putin purchased an option on invading Ukraine.
Tue Jul 8, 2014, 12:46 PM
Jul 2014

Having considered matters, he is choosing to not exercise that option. His co-investors, having paid with flesh equity rather than more abstract forms of capital, are facing a loss more total than most.

Tommy_Carcetti

(43,197 posts)
46. You could ask the same question about Crimea.
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 04:21 PM
Jul 2014

But they took that. Didn't matter that they already had naval bases on the peninsula--for some reason they felt they needed the whole enchilada.

There would be costs for Russia, but probably also benefits. I think the nationalism/revanchism factor would tip the scale in favor of desiring for those territories, but east Ukraine had a higher price tag than Crimea.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
52. I disgree with Mr. Bremmer too.
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 05:12 PM
Jul 2014

I've considered Putin did not intend to take Kharkov, Donetsk, Luhansk, since shortly after he did take Crimea, for the simple reason it were better done all at once or not done at all. Dragging it out would not improve the situation. And it's a long reach, Ukraine is big. And it would not end well, and he's been burned before. Which is where Mr. Bremmer is wrong.

And he needs it to be unified and stable regardless. So if he can't do it, he needs to get somebody else to do it.

And all this separatism is an ugly thing for him to contemplate, too, as we have discussed before.

On the other hand, stirring shit up in the East works in several ways, one of which you mentioned up there, was easy since things were plenty divisive already, and he had little skin in the game. If the East threw off the yoke of Kiev, so much the better. If not, well we got Crimea.

I think of it sort of like Texas, you know the Alamo? The Donetsk Rebels are the Alamo, and the Kiev military (or whomever that is) is Santa Ana, only this time the USA (Russia) lets Mexico keep Texas after Santa Ana takes the Alamo.

I wonder if he regrets the Novy Russia remark yet.

The Magistrate

(95,255 posts)
71. The 'New Russia' Remark, Sir, Certainly Was A Mistake
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 10:24 PM
Jul 2014

It put things out a bit too far.

One of the striking features of all this is the shoddiness and shabbiness of Russian efforts; covert stuff done so openly, and plausible deniability stuff obvious as an owl in daylight. A real air of Oblomovism about the whole affair....

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
3. With Ukraine rebels on the ropes, some Russians ask: Where is Putin?
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 01:45 PM
Jul 2014

Moscow — Russia's leading ultranationalist philosopher, sometimes labelled "Putin's Brain," says that Kremlin "hesitations" over extending military support to east Ukraine's embattled pro-Russian rebels could lead to a domestic political backlash against Vladimir Putin.

Alexander Dugin, whose extreme right-wing "Eurasianist" ideology has often seemed to foreshadow Kremlin actions, says that war between Russia and Ukraine is inevitable. Mr. Putin's apparent decision to abandon retreating east Ukrainian rebels to their fate risks turning into outright betrayal, which could split Putin from his key electoral base of "patriotic" Russians, he says.

"Putin started this by signaling that Russia should defend east Ukraine from attacks by Kiev military forces," Mr. Dugin told the Monitor in a phone interview Monday.

"He declared the unity of the Russian World, and this was understood by leaders in east Ukraine that Russia would help them. But after a difficult struggle inside the Kremlin, the decision to help has been delayed. This is seen as a sign of betrayal by the patriots.... I wouldn't call it betrayal yet. But Putin has changed the timing, and this has created a very critical situation," he says.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2014/0707/With-Ukraine-rebels-on-the-ropes-some-Russians-ask-Where-is-Putin

 

ballyhoo

(2,060 posts)
9. Putin is pausing so everyone knows who is
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 02:09 PM
Jul 2014

paying for the assault by the Ukrainians, which is the West without question. All Putin needs is one more country turning towards him; for instance, Germany, which just found a US spy in their midst. With what is going on right now in the West I think it prudent for Putin to simply watch for a moment. If too much more Russian blood is shed, that would be a different story.

The Magistrate

(95,255 posts)
11. Not Much Of A Reason For A Man To Stay On The Firing Line, Sir
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 02:13 PM
Jul 2014

The one thing that would unite Europe in harsh sanctions against Russia would be a renewed, overt flow of weapons and men from Russia into Ukraine.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
14. I think he might be "forced" to do something, if it gets bloody enough for long enough.
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 02:19 PM
Jul 2014

Otherwise, probably not.

 

ballyhoo

(2,060 posts)
18. Agree 100 per cent. A lot may depend how
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 02:25 PM
Jul 2014

secure the BRICS deal is to end the dollar as purchasing currency. That's coming no matter what.

The Magistrate

(95,255 posts)
20. Your Hopes Get more And More Ephemeral, Sir
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 02:29 PM
Jul 2014

Now all depends on a complete restructuring of global economic arrangements --- by next Tuesday, too....

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
48. No. Financially, war in Ukraine is a loser for Russia.
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 04:26 PM
Jul 2014

Russia makes more money when the Ukraine is neither a part of the European Union nor a part of Russia. Keeping the area in limbo is where the gain is for Russia. Russia cannot afford to lose its income from trade with Europe. Putin is with the Russian oligarchs and economists.

Benton D Struckcheon

(2,347 posts)
10. Well, it's interesting,
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 02:12 PM
Jul 2014

in that it's obvious that Putin had the rest of east Ukraine in his sights when he took Crimea.
The awkwardness of the situation as it currently exists is highlighted in this piece:

Compounding the problem is a relentless campaign by state-controlled Russian television to portray Ukraine as a strife-torn country teeming with Russian-hating skinheads.
To reach Crimea by land, most Russians have to travel through Ukraine.
...
"Airline flights cannot provide us with the necessary quantity of tourists, they have a limited capacity," says Dilyara Yakubova, a hotel and restaurant owner in Yevpatoria. "Ferries can't cope, either. When a person stands for 14-15 hours on a ferry and just as much time -- if not more -- on the way back, the holiday is a little spoiled. This is obviously not very encouraging for people who come here to relax."


This isn't what Putin was planning, you can be sure. He got stopped by the prospect of stiff sanctions, having been shocked by the effect the first ones had, and the collateral damage done to the ruble and the Russian stock market. Whether or not he goes in is going to be a tough decision: if he doesn't he risks alienating the nationalists he cultivated when he took Crimea, but if he does he risks another run on the stock market and the ruble, on top of which would come even more sanctions.
Putin's finding out that as bad as defeat might be, victory could be a total disaster.
 

ballyhoo

(2,060 posts)
17. I hope he chooses the path that protects
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 02:22 PM
Jul 2014

Russian lives the most and doesn't worry about tourists missing a year of sunshine or American banksters closing in on him. I think China will help him if if BRICS doesn't get along with the end of the dollar as a gambling currency.

The Magistrate

(95,255 posts)
22. China, If Anything, Is Licking Its Chops At The Opportunity Weakened Russia Presents, Sir
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 02:33 PM
Jul 2014

China and Russia are not friends, and China nurses grudges from Czarist days compounded by Communist era slights and rivalries. In any 'alliance' between the two, it is China which would be the senior partner, and Russia the mere tail the Peking dog wagged.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
78. Indeed, and Moscow would also have to face an even more humiliating reality:
Tue Jul 8, 2014, 12:50 PM
Jul 2014

its 'partner' places much more value in its ties with their alleged common 'foe' the United States than it does with Mother Russia. Russian gas on the cheap is a "nice to have" but the ability to access US investment markets (currency, land, equities, and debt) as well as consumer sales in the US are essential for the Chinese economy.

The Magistrate

(95,255 posts)
79. And Even More Humiliating Than That, Sir
Tue Jul 8, 2014, 01:49 PM
Jul 2014

The affront to racialist pride, as white men, placed in a position of subordination, even subservience, to 'men of the yellow race'....

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
80. the question is how much the Chinese are willing to pretend
Tue Jul 8, 2014, 02:01 PM
Jul 2014

in public that this is a partnership amongst equals. That too will probably have a price.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
19. I think it is a mistake to assume Putin planned all this.
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 02:28 PM
Jul 2014

He has been winging it just like everybody else, he was just a little better at it, saw the board a little more clearly back there after Yanukovich fled. And has played a fair hand since, for a guy who "lost Ukraine". But I think he would like to move on now, and we should let him.

Benton D Struckcheon

(2,347 posts)
23. Yeah, I got nothing against that.
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 02:36 PM
Jul 2014

Crimea's done. Petroshenko made some noises about getting it back, but he has to as the leader of Ukraine. As long as Putin does the smart thing and lets these guys hang out to dry, it's fine. I've been of the opinion that he's been trying to save face before people like Dugin for a while. How he manages that I have no idea, but that's his problem.

 

another_liberal

(8,821 posts)
25. Some of the comments on this string are disturbing . . .
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 02:39 PM
Jul 2014

Are we really that into killing and destruction now? When, exactly, did that change happen?

These are human beings you are talking about doing those things to. Do you realize that? Had you forgotten it?

The Magistrate

(95,255 posts)
26. And When You Started Cheerleading Secessionist Violence, Sir, There Were Human Lives Involved Too
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 02:45 PM
Jul 2014

After your mash note here you have relieved any of any obligation to take you seriously

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=5169424

"Putin is rough, tough, and nobody's sweet-heart...." suggests you might better focus your energies on securing a gig doing cover blurbs for 'TwiLight Romance' or some other publisher of bodice-rippers.

It calls to mind comments by Orwell on left intellectuals in his day, in particular comments contained in 'Notes on Nationalism':

http://gutenberg.net.au/ebooks03/0300011h.html#part30

"But there is a minority of intellectual pacifists whose real though unadmitted motive appears to be hatred of western democracy and admiration of totalitarianism. Pacifist propaganda usually boils down to saying that one side is as bad as the other, but if one looks closely at the writings of younger intellectual pacifists, one finds that they do not by any means express impartial disapproval but are directed almost entirely against Britain and the United States. Moreover they do not as a rule condemn violence as such, but only violence used in defence of western countries."

"All in all it is difficult not to feel that pacifism, as it appears among a section of the intelligentsia, is secretly inspired by an admiration for power and successful cruelty."

The maudlin hero-worship of your 'Putin is rough, tough, and nobody's sweet-heart...' fits perfectly into the mental attitude he describes.

 

another_liberal

(8,821 posts)
28. Except for the fact . . .
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 02:58 PM
Jul 2014

I did no such thing as "cheerlead secessionist violence."

Plus, you aren't even quoting me, which seems a rather odd way to suggest I said something.

Could it be that your imagination is running away with you again?

 

another_liberal

(8,821 posts)
68. Follow it yourself, and read more carefully . . .
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 08:02 PM
Jul 2014

You seem to have taken away a bizarrely inaccurate meaning the first time around.

joshcryer

(62,276 posts)
38. The good guys are winning.
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 03:43 PM
Jul 2014

Not sure what you are disappointed about. Are you cheering for the bad guys who just blew up bridges?

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
34. Ukraine tycoon pleads for city’s safety after rebels vow to make stand
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 03:29 PM
Jul 2014

UKRAINE’S richest man pleaded with the government on Monday not to bomb Donetsk, a city of a million people where hundreds of heavily armed pro-Russian rebels have vowed to make a stand after losing control of their bastion in the town of Slaviansk.

The Kiev government has said it will act quickly to seize back more territory from rebels after re-taking Slaviansk in what President Petro Poroshenko called a turning point in the three-month conflict againstpro-Russian fighters in the east.

Rebels retreating from Slaviansk, some driving armoured vehicles flying Russian flags, poured into Donetsk, 110 km to the north over the weekend. About 1,000 of them held a bellicose rally in the central square on Sunday.

Their commander, a Muscovite using the name Igor Strelkov, was quoted by Interfax news agency as saying his men would fight for the city, which was “much easier to defend than little Slaviansk”.

http://cyprus-mail.com/2014/07/07/ukraine-tycoon-pleads-for-citys-safety-after-rebels-vow-to-make-stand/

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
35. Ukraine Forces Working to Block Donetsk
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 03:30 PM
Jul 2014

MOSCOW--Ukrainian forces moved Monday to surround Donetsk, the eastern city that pro-Russia rebels retreated to after being driven out of several other strongholds over the weekend.

Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine's interior minister, said that the rebels' retreat marked a turning point in the three-month conflict and that Ukraine intended to keep up the pressure until the separatists surrendered.

"The morale of the militants, according to our intelligence, is extremely low because they feel abandoned, betrayed and cheated," he was quoted as saying at a news conference in Kiev by local media.

Rebel fighters have said they intend to fight to the end in Donetsk, a regional capital of around 1 million people. But they also have expressed discontent with Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom they had counted on to intervene if Ukrainian forces gained the upper hand.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/ukraine-forces-working-to-block-donetsk-20140706-00053

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
37. Is It Curtains For Ukraine's Pro-Russia Rebels? Army Moves In To Re-Take Final Eastern Cities
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 03:37 PM
Jul 2014

After months of fighting and a handful of dodgy referendums, Ukraine's pro-Russia rebels are preparing a dramatic "last stand" against government forces.

The end to the conflict that has ravaged the country's eastern region is now in sight, as Ukrainian government retook two more eastern cities from pro-Russian rebels, and plan to retake the final two major strongholds within days.

On Sunday, government forces regained control of a key rebel stronghold at Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. Slavyansk had been the town where fighting was fiercest during the struggles in the east, and where several journalists and peacekeepers were kidnapped and held hostage.

Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko ordered the assault on Slavyansk in breach of a unilateral ceasefire, arguing that the rebels had refused to abide by the terms of the truce.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/07/07/ukraine-russia-rebel-_n_5563755.html

Igel

(35,350 posts)
39. In some cases it's a good thing for the seccessionist cause.
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 03:45 PM
Jul 2014

Having a train on the bridge from Slov'yansk to Donets'k at the time it was demolished, for instance. Hard enough to get past a downed trestle; it's worse when there's still a train on it.

On the other hand, one of the bridges was the supply line for a power plant. Without it, the power plant will be running on reserves. It has reserves--it's an open question as to how long they'll last. At that point either somebody will have to repair the line (the Ukr railway's been kind enough to do this in many cases--even in DPR and LPR territory, they fix the tracks at Kiev's expense) or the power will fail.


The Russian-language press that the seccessionists follow, however, don't show what many at DU show. No supplies are arriving in Slov'yansk or Artemivsk. Instead, there are purges and sweeps in which all men are being arrested, relatives of "insurgents" are being gunned down on the streets. It's like what happened when the Nazis went into points that the Red Army pulled out. Or so says Lesya reporting from Druzhovka about what a friend in Artemivsk said he heard from his buddy in Slov'yansk. (That press is a real hoot. Some of it is so openly false as to be funny. Other articles read like Brezhnev-era Pravda and Izvestiya articles. Some sound like WWII-era news stories. Their "Heroes of the Donetsk People's Republic" newsreels are also worth a snort. Preferably with a couple of strong drinks. So much war-time propaganda squished into a small bit of "newsreel" that it self-satirizes.)

The seccessionist and rossiisky (Russian, as in Rossiya; not Russian as in the ethnicity or language) press also didn't hear about the tractor driver outside of Krasnopartisansk that was killed by a landmine. (The LPR is busy using landmines.) The villagers said it was rather surprising: The same people that they watched lay mines last night tried to say it was a a National-Guard/Right Sector diversionist group that apparently showed up during the night to engage in mine-laying and left without a trace. Or the 13-year-old girl killed at a checkpoint when her parents didn't stop in the dark for the armed men with dark masks and in camo.

Benton D Struckcheon

(2,347 posts)
53. I don't.
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 05:21 PM
Jul 2014

These are useless false leftists. I sat and thought about it and realized that every single one of the positions these alleged leftists takes is consonant with Russian interests. They also profusely cite all of the sites in the Kremlin's propaganda web, not only rt.com, but also complete looney toons like globalresearch.ca.
I was bewildered at first, trying to figure out why the alleged "anti-war" folks were all for the invasion of Crimea. War is war, and a dead body doesn't care how it got dead.
I'm not anymore. This little adventure was a turning point. I've learned quite a bit in the two years I've been here. One of them has to do with who's real and who's just a spambot for Moscow.

dipsydoodle

(42,239 posts)
58. I'll have to assume then that you're in favour
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 05:54 PM
Jul 2014

of both the progressive nationalisation of their gas distribution system and the inevitability of electricity prices to consumers being increased TEN FOLD over a period of years.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
41. Putin's silence on Slaviansk signals desire to de-escalate Ukraine crisis
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 03:54 PM
Jul 2014

MOSCOW, July 7 (Reuters) - Three weeks before Ukraine's army forced rebel fighters out of the strategic eastern city of Slaviansk, their commander made a desperate plea for military help from Russia.

"A week will pass, two, three, maybe a month, and the rebellion's best fighters will be bled dry and, sooner or later, crushed and destroyed," Igor Girkin, who is better known as Strelkov, said in a comments widely viewed online.

The appeal was met with silence by President Vladimir Putin, and on Saturday, as if on cue, Girkin's outnumbered and outgunned forces abandoned the city after weeks of shelling.

The weekend's events may be not just a turning point in Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko's military campaign against the rebellion led by separatists who want eastern Ukraine incorporated into Russia.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/07/ukraine-crisis-putin-idUSL6N0PI4DZ20140707?rpc=401&feedType=RSS&feedName=rbssEnergyNews&rpc=401

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
42. Ukrainians seek EU asylum as conflict goes on
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 03:57 PM
Jul 2014

BRUSSELS - The Russia-Ukraine conflict has prompted more than 2,000 Ukrainians to apply for asylum in the EU.

The usual rate, of 100 a month, did not change during the internal unrest leading to the overthrow of former leader Viktor Yanukovych in February.

But numbers jumped to 600 or 700 a month from March, when Russia invaded Crimea, according to figures published by Easo, the EU’s Malta-based asylum agency, on Monday (7 July).

Easo director Robert K. Visser told press in Brussels that most applicants were already living in EU countries.

http://euobserver.com/justice/124888

dipsydoodle

(42,239 posts)
54. Tymoshenko counts on EU assistance in ending war in eastern regions
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 05:28 PM
Jul 2014

Leader of the Batkivschyna Party Yulia Tymoshenko discussed Ukraine's relations with the European Union and the situation in eastern Ukraine in talks with Italian Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini, the party's press service said on July 7.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/tymoshenko-counts-on-eu-assistance-in-ending-war-in-eastern-regions-355021.html

Refers to this meeting I guess

Italian foreign minister to visit Kiev, Moscow to discuss Ukrainian crisis settlement ways

ROME, July 07. /ITAR-TASS/. Italian Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini on Monday is embarking on a four-day trip that includes visits to Kiev and Moscow. The Italian minister said that by paying the first visits, after Italy assumed the EU presidency, to Ukraine and Russia, Rome wants to highlight the priority of the search for ways of settling the Ukrainian conflict and find an equilibrium in relations with Moscow after the signing of the EU association agreement by Kiev.

Mogherini has repeatedly stressed the need for the bilateral ceasefire by the conflicting sides in the southeast of Ukraine, release all the seized observers and establishment of the system of control over the Russian-Ukrainian border the monitoring of which should be conducted by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). The Italian minister has already discussed these issues with her Russian, Ukrainian, German and French colleagues, as well as with the president of Switzerland that is presiding in the OSCE.

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/739254

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
57. Maybe with a crane. Take a while.
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 05:47 PM
Jul 2014

I was wondering a couple days ago, when they retreated to Donetsk, if they would start blowing bridges.

 

Duckhunter935

(16,974 posts)
59. I agree
Mon Jul 7, 2014, 06:00 PM
Jul 2014

I think they were blocking the road below. Bad thing as I guess that is the line the power plant is supplied by.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
76. Ukraine says no more unilateral ceasefires
Tue Jul 8, 2014, 11:44 AM
Jul 2014

"There will be no more unilateral ceasefires" by Ukrainian troops, Valeriy Heletey said in a statement posted on the ministry's website.

---

He has since ordered the army to blockade the insurgents inside the two cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. On Tuesday he named a new head of the military operation, Vasyl Grytsak.

---

One of the rebel leaders in the east, Alexander Borodai, told Russian media they were preparing to fight back. "We're not preparing ourselves for a siege. We are preparing ourselves for action," he said.


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28209182

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