Ukraine Asserts Russian Invasion and Reinstitutes Draft

[JackRiddler]

Source: New York Times

By NEIL MacFARQUHARAUG. 28, 2014

MOSCOW — Asserting that Russian soldiers and armaments had crossed into Ukraine to support the separatists, President Petro O. Poroshenko of Ukraine canceled a trip to Turkey on Thursday, and his national security council ordered mandatory conscription for the armed forces.

“Columns of heavy artillery, huge loads of arms and regular Russian servicemen came to the territory of Ukraine from Russia through the uncontrolled border area,” Mr. Poroshenko said at the beginning of an emergency meeting of the Ukrainian Nation Security and Defense Council in Kiev.

(...)

Nonetheless, the deputy head of the council, Mykhailo Koval, announced after the meeting had concluded that mandatory conscription, which was suspended last year, would be restarted this fall, news services reported.

(...)

Col. Andriy Lysenko, a spokesman for the national security council, said that the Ukrainian military was planning a counteroffensive against the separatists and what he called “more and more Russians” in the country, but declined to provide details about military plans. He also accused Russia of sending new antiaircraft defense systems into eastern Ukraine.

Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/29/world/europe/ukraine-conflict.html

---

NOTE: The LBN in this case is that the president has ordered a military draft.

COMMENT: Possibly the beginning of the end for the current Kiev regime. Until now they have deputized existing fascist and ethno-nationalist militias and relied on volunteers (including some from international fascist networks abroad) as much as on Ukrainian army regulars on the ground. Kiev saw a genuine popular uprising at the Maidan, no matter that it was hijacked by a junta of bankers with fascists as their junior partner. It's a big risk to start drafting people in the west to go kill people in the east (not to mention their friends from Russia). The Donetsk hostilities were initiated by the Kiev government, and not many young men in Kiev are going to enthusiastically fight and die for this bullshit.

[Dems to Win]

1. Hope your comment proves correct

The Kiev regime is already having lots of trouble with deserters from the current Army. Can't imagine this is going to go over well.

[Fred Sanders]

3. This will not sit well with the vast number of folk who do not want their sons fighting for a regime

that is governing after a coup.

Guess the militas that form the "Ukraine army" are not enough.

[ballyhoo]

2. I'll second that hope that you're right. I see Petro

getting deposed for this.

[7962]

4. Wow, amazing to see how many on DU are excited about an expansionist Russia.

You folks the same ones who've been saying Russia had no interest in Ukraine after crimea was annexed?
Or you think Russia is like Lucy with the football; I promise I'll stop with ukraine.
You do realize that the inaction by the EU & US will only make Putin think he can go on with his next target, which COULD be a NATO member on the border? Then what?

[JackRiddler]

5. What's "amazing" is your power of misinterpretation.

I'm not the least bit excited about this situation which is ugly all around. Your strawman has nothing to do with what I think.

See here:
Can we talk intelligently about Russia and Ukraine? http://www.democraticunderground.com/10025267434

What's even more amazing is your power to ignore how this started: with a hijacked rebellion in Kiev, a junta of bankers and fascists that chose to attack the ethnic Russian population, prompting the Crimea secession in the first place, and that then upped the ante by escalating into armed hostilities against the Donetsk separatists (and killing the civilian population of the eastern Ukraine generally!).

EU & US were hardly inactive - they shouldn't have been meddling in Ukraine before the Maidan movement, and they shouldn't be encouraging, arming, and advising the present government or accepting its propaganda about how all Russians in Ukraine are "terrorists." It's their empty suggestion that they're actually going to risk World War III on behalf of the Kiev junta that has encouraged the latter to keep pulling its increasingly stupid, murderous stunts. One hopes this insanity will not go on for much longer. It's obvious that Kiev is making no progress militarily and the draft may accelerate this government's disintegration.

[7962]

9. Obviously They HAVE been making progress otherwise Russia wouldnt be invading openly.

Look at the maps of rebel held territory a few months ago compared to now. Thats why Russia is openly driving tanks and troops right into the country.
You're simply blind to what Putin really wants. This has little to do with Ukraine and a lot to do with his vision of a rebuilt Soviet Union. He's even stated the Soviet demise was the greatest disaster of the 20th century and how Russia needed to be a world power again.
I've been hearing constantly on DU how Russia had no more interest after they took Crimea. You'll all be wrong after Ukraine collapses too.
"strawman" my ass. Another term that ought to be tossed.

[VanGoghRocks]

10. Oy vey. "Russia invading openly." If Russia were invading openly, Kiev would

be a smouldering ruin about now and Putin's T-72s an T-80s would be at the Polish border.

I half wish they were, threatening Zbig Brzezinski's precious ancestral Galician homelands and shoving his inveterate crackpot Russophobia up his ass (in the process mopping up all the remaining fascist and neo-Nazi Banderites who've been asking for it since about 1941). Oh well, one can always hope.

[7962]

11. Yes, keep "hoping" for a more aggressive Russia. What threat to Europe has Ukraine been?

What nonsense. Hope you're happy with another cold war because your "wishes" will bring one.

[VanGoghRocks]

12. I'm anti-fascist. Why do you support neo-Nazis (Right Sector) and fascists (Svoboda)?

[pampango]

15. Have you read the definition of fascism and applied to Putin.

Fascist movements shared certain common features, including the veneration of the state, a devotion to a strong leader, and an emphasis on ultranationalism and militarism. Fascism views political violence, war, and imperialism as a means to achieve national rejuvenation, and it asserts that stronger nations have the right to expand their territory by displacing weaker nations.

Fascism borrowed theories and terminology from socialism but replaced socialism's focus on class conflict with a focus on conflict between nations and races. Fascists advocate a mixed economy, with the principal goal of achieving autarky to secure national self-sufficiency and independence through protectionist and interventionist economic policies.

The Nazis said that homosexuality was degenerate, effeminate, perverted, and undermined masculinity because it did not produce children.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascism

Veneration of the state (Mother Russia) - check
devotion to a strong leader - check
emphasis on ultranationalism and militarism - check
politcal violence, war and imperialism - check
strong nations (Russia) have a right to expand their territory by displacing weaker nations (Ukraine) - check
focus on conflict between nations (Russia vs. US/EU) and races (ethnic Russian and ethnic Ukrainians) - check
protectionist and interventionist economic policies - check
homosexuality is forbidden by the state - check.

In what way does anyone classify Putin as a liberal or progressive?

And if Right Sektor and Svoboda don't do any better in the parliamentary elections in October than they did in the presidential election in May - when they polled a combined 1.8% - they will disappear from the Ukrainian political scene. Do you have a plan B to go to when that happens?

[7962]

21. Thank you for that. very well said.

[Union Scribe]

13. So you advocating for an aggressive US/EU response

in an above post is NOT going to bring about a cold war? Strange logic there.

[VanGoghRocks]

17. Back in 1989-90, IIRC, then Secretary of State James Baker promised his

Soviet counterpart Foreign Secretary Schevardnaze that there would be no, repeat ZERO, further eastward expansion of NATO if the USSR allowed a reunified Geramny to join NATO. As soon as he took office, Clinton immediately began undermining that promise and understanding.

The USSR kept its side of the agreement. The US? Meh, not so much.

We have seen how well the U.S. keeps it agreements and exactly how far the U.S. can be trusted? About as far as you or I can spit and that's all.

[7962]

22. Listen to Putins speech from today. If that doesnt tell you where we are, nothing will

[jakeXT]

6. So the last ones drafted for the Army thought they would get out in October

It's probably not so difficult to restart the draft after one year. And with calling up old former military men, it's possible to have son, father and grandfather in the field at the same time.

Ukraine to end military conscription after autumn call-ups
Oct. 3, 2013 at 12:02 AM

...

Deputy Chief of the General Staff Lieutenant-General Bronislaw Zhukovsky said in a defense ministry statement last week the October-November call-up will number 10,800 young men, including 5,000 for the armed forces, 4,800 for the Ministry of the Interior and 1,000 for the State Special Transport Service, the UNIAN news agency reported.

Zhukovsky indicated 8,000 contract soldiers had signed up so far this year, with the number of troops under contract increasing by 5,000.

Ukraine's army is the fifth-largest in Europe. By 2017, it is set to drop from 180,000 to 122,000 members.

Under current law on compulsory military service, all male citizens ages 18-25 must serve in the Army for 12 months or the Navy for 18 months.

Read more: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2013/10/03/Ukraine-to-end-military-conscription-after-autumn-call-ups/UPI-95521380772920/

Military draft in Ukraine signaling agony of Kiev regime - Russian experts

...

The authorities do not reveal any figures on how many reservists will be called up. “The case in hand may be tens of thousands of men within 45 days,” says Nedelya.ua portal, adding that, more than that, the Verkhovna Rada has revised the upper age for the individuals liable for drafting to 60 years from the previous 50.

http://en.itar-tass.com/opinions/1837

[pampango]

7. Ukraine spends 1.1% of GDP on its military. Russia - 5%. Income inequalty in Ukraine is like Sweden.

In Russia it is almost as bad as in the US.

While it is true that Russia has a draft, I do not think it will go over well in Ukraine. If a foreign country were attacking them that would be one thing, but a draft to fight in a civil war would only work if the populace supported the cause. Heck, there were draft riots in the North during our civil war.

Poland fought hard against hopeless odds in 1939 against Germany and the USSR. (The USSR said it was going into Poland to protect ethnic Russians stranded in a country with a disintegrating government subject to fascism.) I don't doubt that Ukrainians will fight as hard as the Poles did if some line is crossed. I don't know where that line is and I know that if Putin wants Ukraine (or some part of it), he will have it. No one will stop him militarily.

The "genuine popular uprising at the Maidan" shows there are things they care deeply about and are willing to face imposing odds to fight for. It remains to be seen what vision for Ukraine they care deeply enough about to face the imposing odds in the east.

[JackRiddler]

8. Military budget and income inequality

Well, the % of GDP to the military is certainly rising by the day.

The income inequality, very interesting. Ukraine has a low GINI coefficient of around 27 (US:45). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_equality

At the same time, it is ranked #15 worldwide in capital flight. http://www.dragon-capital.com/en/about/media/press_about_us/an_offshore_flood_of_untaxed_wealth.html

So it has a bit to do with wealth being kept offshore. (Example, Greece has a 33, much lower than U.S., but famously most of the money of the rich is offshore.)

[pampango]

14. I read that Ukraine's president asked for a 50% increase in defense spending - to 1.7% of GDP.

That means that Russia spends 3 times as much of its GDP on the military. In addition, Russia's GDP (at $2 trillion) is 12 times that of Ukraine ($176 billion). Russia therefore spends 36 times as much on its military as Ukraine does on its. And has a worse distribution of income to boot.

Part of the income equality in Ukraine may be due to capital flight. Of course, Russian oligarch's are well known for their capital flight as well so I am not sure how much of the difference in their respective income equality figures is due to capital flight differences. (When Cyprus had its banking crisis there was a lot of concern for the reaction from Russia since so much of the money in Cypriot banks came from Russia.)

[JackRiddler]

16. Indirectly this illustrates how ridiculous...

the idea is that Russia has invaded Ukraine. That would have been short work, the numbers suggest.

Another way of seeing it, however, is that prior to the coup and the Kiev regime's decision to attack the Russian populations of Ukraine, the country was liberating itself of the burden that any military spending (being completely non-productive and inherently destabilizing) puts on a nation. Now, sadly...

[pampango]

18. Ahh yes, the 'coup'. The world's first "I'm leaving because I want to" 'coup'.

Yanukovich had just signed an agreement to stay in office and run the government until there were election in December. He still had control of the military and security services. And yet the coup mysteriously forced him to take his money and run to - Russia.

And it is, of course, just a coincidence that Russia is the country that has benefited most (except for some dead soldiers and more spending on the military) from the surprising departure of Mr. Yanukovich. Crimea is now reunited with Mother Russia. And soon more of eastern Ukraine will be 'reunited' whether they all want it or not.

And in your version of history the day after the 'coup' Ukraine's army started to attack the peaceful people of Eastern Ukraine. OK.

What the disparity in military spending also shows is that Russia has absolutely nothing to worry about in terms of a threat from Ukraine. Unfortunately, national governments that do have a history of spending more on the military than they did before the attack. I agree that military spending is "completely non-productive and inherently destabilizing" whether is in Ukraine or in Russia.

[JackRiddler]

19. Truly a selective history.

This isn't the place for a full chronology but I'll remind that yes, right after the coup, on the first day, the new government initiated a political attack on Russian-speaking populations, prompting the secession of Crimea a couple of weeks later. They also started a street terror in Kiev against political opponents and media who weren't on their line. And then, as the separatists organized in the east, the supporters and militias of the Kiev parties (and eventually the Ukrainian regular army) initiated the violence against eastern Ukraine. They have used awful rhetoric about "subhumans" and "terrorists" and refused opportunities for a negotiated solution at a time when the separatists had weak popular support and Putin was urging them not to hold their referendum (May 11).

Most of the people dying in this conflict so far are civilian non-combatants in eastern Ukraine, killed by the Kiev forces. Why don't they matter?

[pampango]

20. As is yours. Though I appreciate you not defending the "I'm leaving because I want to" coup.

on the first day, the new government initiated a political attack on Russian-speaking populations

Indeed the parliament passed a law eliminating Russian, Romanian and Hungarian (not just Russia) as an official languages in certain regions. Of course, the prime minister vetoed it and it never became law but the issue would never go away.

prompting the secession of Crimea a couple of weeks later.

Leader of the Party of Regions, Oleksandr Yefremov, travelled to Luhansk to meet with local leaders and law enforcement agents to discuss the possibility of the south-east of Ukraine declaring independence, and seceding from the state. The chairman of the Supreme Council of Crimea Vladimir Konstantinov traveled to Moscow where he announced that the Autonomous Republic of Crimea will secede from Ukraine if there would change of power.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Ukrainian_revolution#Opposition_leaders_meeting_with_President_Yanukovych

On February 20 Konstantinov got back from Moscow and announced that Crimea would secede if there were a change in power.

While Yanukovich was still in power the "recently-returned-from-Moscow" leader of Crimea warns that if there is a change in power, Crimea will secede. Surprise, surprise! Within 24 hours the "I'm leaving because I want to "coup" happened and there was a change in power. Makes you wonder if Yanukovich did not receive a phone call from a Moscow area code at some point to let him know what Moscow and Konstantinov had worked out for what was going to happen.

The pro-Russian Ukrainian Front organisation announced a meeting to be held on 22 February among representatives from southern and eastern Ukraine. Andriy Kluyev is an organiser of the event and the group intends to discuss the federalisation of the country into semi-autonomous regions. Following the agreement with the opposition and measures made in parliament, President Yanukovych then flew from Kiev to Kharkiv to attend the Ukrainian Front congress; sources also indicated that Berkut forces had been amassed in Kharkiv in anticipation of the event. As Yuriy Lutsenko reported, past midnight on 22 February, the SBU opened criminal proceedings against Kharkiv governor Mikhail Dobkin and mayor Hennadiy Kernes for advocating separatism.

At the Congress of the Southern and Eastern regions in Kharkiv on 22 February, the deputies passed a resolution, declaring that they are ready to take responsibility for protecting constitutional order in their territory. They stated that the recent events in Kiev led to paralysis of the central power and a destabilisation in the country. They also signed a statement rejecting the authority of Parliament.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Ukrainian_revolution#Opposition_leaders_meeting_with_President_Yanukovych

I think it is safe to say that elements in Eastern Ukraine were working on secession while events in Kiev were still underway.