Payroll employment increases by 214,000 in October; unemployment rate edges down to 5.8%

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Last edited Sat Nov 8, 2014, 04:10 PM - Edit history (1)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment Situation Summary USDL-14-2037
Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (EST) Friday, November 7, 2014

Technical information:
Household data: [phone] * [e-mail] * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: [phone] * [e-mail] * www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: [phone] * [e-mail]


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- OCTOBER 2014


Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 214,000 in October, and the unemployment
rate edged down to 5.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Employment increased in food services and drinking places, retail trade, and
health care.

Household Survey Data

Both the unemployment rate (5.8 percent) and the number of unemployed persons
(9.0 million) edged down in October. Since the beginning of the year, the
unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons have declined by 0.8
percentage point and 1.2 million, respectively. (See table A-1.)
....

In October, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or
more) was little changed at 2.9 million. These individuals accounted for 32.0
percent of the unemployed. Over the past 12 months, the number of long-term
unemployed has declined by 1.1 million. (See table A-12.)

The civilian labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.8 percent
in October and has been essentially flat since April. The employment-population
ratio increased to 59.2 percent in October. (See table A-1.)

Read more: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

---

October Jobs Report: Everything You Need to Know

Markets
8:06 am ET
Nov 7, 2014

Yes, it’s that time again, folks. Jobs Friday, when for one ever-so-brief moment the interests of Wall Street, Washington and Main Street are all aligned on one thing: jobs.

Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires expect nonfarm payrolls grew by a seasonally adjusted 233,000 in October — down from 248,000 jobs added in September — with the unemployment rate sticking at 6.1%.

Here at MoneyBeat HQ, we’ll be offering color commentary and tracking the markets before and after the data crosses the wires. Feel free to weigh in yourself, via the comments section. And while you’re here, why don’t you sign up to follow us on Twitter.

Enjoy the show.

Credit where credit is due:

The MoneyBeat Team:

Stephen Grocer
Editor

Phillipa Leighton-Jones
European Editor

Erik Holm
Deputy Editor

Maureen Farrell
Reporter, New York

Paul Vigna
Reporter, New York

Steven Russolillo
Reporter, New York

David Cottle
Reporter, London

—Associated Press

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I especially welcome our good friends from across the aisle. You're paying for this information too, so you are a welcome participant in this thread. Please, everyone, put aside your differences long enough to digest the information. After that, you can engage in your usual donnybrook.

If you don't have the time to study the report thoroughly, here is the news in a nutshell:

Commissioner's Statement on The Employment Situation
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jec.nr0.htm

What is important about these statistics is not so much this month’s number, but the trend. So let’s look at some earlier numbers.

ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in October 2014:

ADP National Employment Report Shows 230,000 Jobs Added in October

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2014:

Payroll employment increases by 248,000 in September; unemployment rate declines to 5.9%

ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2014:

ADP National Employment Report Shows 213,000 Jobs Added in September

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in August 2014 (hat tip, Garion 55):

Payroll employment increases in August (+142,000); unemployment rate changes little (6.1%)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014888738

ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2014:

ADP National Employment Report Shows 204,000 Jobs Added in August
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014887794

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2014:

Payroll employment increases in July (+209,000); unemployment rate changes little (6.2%)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014860280

ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2014:

ADP National Employment Report Shows 218,000 Jobs Added in July
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014858666

Here’s a grim thought:

Fed economists: America’s missing workers are not coming back
http://www.democraticunderground.com/111658923

Dissenters, take note:

A New Reason to Question the Official Unemployment Rate
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/26/upshot/a-new-reason-to-question-the-official-unemployment-rate.html

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

A few more things:

Meet FRED, every wonk’s secret weapon

FRED stands for Federal Reserve Economic Data. It serves as an online clearinghouse for a wealth of numbers: unemployment rates, prices of goods, GDP and CPI, things common and obscure. Today, FRED is more than a little bit famous, thanks to the public’s fascination with economic data.

Federal Reserve Economic Data

So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that.

http://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/calculator/index.cfm
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator™

And:

Monthly Employment Reports

The large print giveth, and the fine print taketh away.

A DU'er pointed out several months ago that, if I'm going to post the link to the press release, I should include the link to all the tables that provide additional ways of examining the data. Specifically, I should post a link to Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization. Table A-15 includes those who are not considered unemployed, on the grounds that they have become discouraged about the prospects of finding a job and have given up looking. Here are those links.

Employment Situation

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

From the February 10, 2011, DOL Newsletter:

Take Three

Secretary Solis answers three questions about how the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates unemployment rates.

How does BLS determine the unemployment rate and the number of jobs that were added each month?

BLS uses two different surveys to get these numbers. The household survey, or Current Population Survey (CPS), involves asking people, from about 60,000 households, a series of questions to assess each person in the household's activities including work and searching for work. Their responses give us the unemployment rate. The establishment survey, or Current Employment Statistics (CES), surveys 140,000 employers about how many people they have on their payrolls. These results determine the number of jobs being added or lost.

[alcibiades_mystery]

1. Obama's FAILED policies!!!!!

[rtracey]

5. Democrat

Democrat failed GOTV policy....Democrat failed candidate policy, Democrat failed leadership policy.....Not Obama failed policy... I know you were sarcastic, but I am not. I am extremely pissed at the fact that 58% of democrat voters did not bother to show up.

[alcibiades_mystery]

8. DemocratIC

is the adjectival form.

Just sayin'.

[1StrongBlackMan]

15. I saw this morning ...

in Arkansas, the Democratic voter participation rate was only 40%.

Apparently, the "battle-ground state" campaigns didn't have access to this report:

http://jointcenter.org/sites/default/files/Joint%20Center%202014%20Black%20Turnout%2010-29-14_0.pdf

Because if he had ... President Obama would have spent more time in Arkansas, than Bill Clinton, and there would have been more President Obama in Colorado, than 6 packs of Coors!

[JoePhilly]

6. Thank God we voted Dems out!!!

[mehrrh]

12. good news doesn't matter

Unemployment is down, stock market is up, gas prices are down -- damn that Obama!
Who does he think he is with these steadily improving numbers?

[global1]

2. Those "Failed Policies Of Harry Reid And President Obama" Strike Again......(sarcasm) nt

[BumRushDaShow]

3. Thanks for posting

Got a Wapo banner on it too.

[Snarkoleptic]

4. I was listening to the breaking news on the local wingnut radio station

and they were spinning hard.
"Less than experts predicted" , "signs of a slowing economy", &quot unemployment) barely ticked down to 5.8%"

[alcibiades_mystery]

7. Come January: Unemployment plummets .1 percent under GOP Congress

I know why people lie so brazenly, but I do have trouble figuring out how they get up and do it everyday.

[Snarkoleptic]

9. The big Koch Industry paycheck helps them get motivated.

[ctsnowman]

10. Thank you.

[Elmer S. E. Dump]

11. Look at the difference the 'pubs made - and the new congress isn't even started yet!

[SHRED]

13. I hope these are living wage jobs

[Shemp Howard]

16. Me too. Quality matters!

If most of the new jobs are well-paying jobs (in manufacturing, etc.), this is good news indeed. But if the new jobs are mainly low-paying service jobs, with no benefits, that's another story.

[Ampersand Unicode]

14. GOP policies have outsourced all the "good" jobs

I wonder if a lot of these "upticks" in employment have to do with temp hires at Macy's and Sears for the holidays. Usually "unemployment" goes down around the start of the holiday shopping/hiring season and then bumps up in January when the gift-wrappers get canned.

What percentage of these new hires are actually "good" jobs and not just shopping-mall elves or serving up holiday-flavored coffee at "Pumpkin Donuts"? Quality means a lot more than quantity.

[jwirr]

18. Probably very few because the corporations are still being rewarded for outsourcing the good jobs.

[progree]

20. They are seasonally adjusted numbers

Where do you get the information that "unemployment" -- by that I assume you mean the official unemployment numbers --

"goes down around the start of the holiday shopping/hiring season and then bumps up in January when the gift-wrappers get canned."

??? Again -- they are seasonally adjusted numbers that adjust for holiday pickup in employment.

As for wages -- they are higher than under G.W. Bush. Not just the nominal dollar amount, but the inflation-adjusted numbers too.

Production and Non-Supervisory Employees, seasonally adjusted

I favor this measure because it does *not* include supervisors, managers, CEOs, business owners, and so on, whose very high salaries, in some cases, may otherwise distort the overall average skyward. So this production and non-supervisory employees data series is closer to the average working person.

In the below, "real" means inflation-adjusted, so that it indicates its purchasing power. These are seasonally adjusted:

Real Hourly - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032
Real Weekly - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000031

In the below, "nominal" means just the simple ordinary dollar amount, i.e. *not* inflation adjusted. These are seasonally adjusted:

Nominal Hourly - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000008
Nominal Weekly - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000030

[Elmer S. E. Dump]

22. Please don't dis the elves!

[jwirr]

17. These are the numbers we need to remember as the Rs take over. Go ahead and lead you idiots.

[Todays_Illusion]

19. This made the Republican voters so unhappy they voted the party back in that caused the problem.

[OnlinePoker]

21. 3.8 million more employed than Oct 2013

Only 172 thousand of the increase was in manufacturing, but at least everything isn't being made overseas.

[Old Nick]

23. "Yeah, but who wants to run on a quickening recovery?" - Wasserman-Schultz