Opinion: Europe must prepare for a cold Russian winter
(CNN) -- The meeting on Tuesday between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart, Petro Poroshenko, marks the beginning of a new phase in the conflict between the two countries.
Military analysts say that the date by which Putin could have safely hoped to initiate and complete a full scale invasion of Ukraine before the onset of winter has already passed, so the threat of an open military confrontation has receded and there is space to give diplomacy a chance.
Yet it would be premature to conclude that jaw-jaw is about to replace war-war entirely. If there are powerful forces driving both sides to the negotiating table, there are also major differences that continue to keep them apart. We can expect a tense and difficult winter ahead.
The main reason Putin is now willing to explore a negotiated solution is that Western sanctions are beginning to bite. Currency instability, accelerating capital flight and vanishing growth rates all point to a deep and sustained recession if the current political uncertainty persists and Western pressure is maintained.
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/26/business/putin-poroshenko-ukraine-david-clark/index.html