How to Beat the Islamic State (w/ comments from ex-CIA types - Newsweek)

[flamingdem]

http://www.newsweek.com/how-beat-islamic-state-267273


The lights are on 24/7 in the CIA’s Iraq Operations Group these days, with real-time spy satellite imagery, electronic intercepts and drone videos pouring in from Iraq and Syria, along with intelligence reports from agency bases in Baghdad, Kurdistan, Jordan, Lebanon, Kuwait and Turkey. But the whispered corridor conversations and worried looks among analysts and operations officials, sources say, tell the real story: Even if the White House decides to go to war against the Islamic State, commonly known as ISIS, there are no good options.

The last time the CIA faced an Iraqi insurgency it had the backing of 140,000 U.S. troops, a 500-strong Baghdad station and constant air cover from in-country bases, not to mention the support of President George W. Bush and Congress for a big troop “surge.” It was also able to promise Sunni tribal leaders that they would have a seat at the table in Baghdad. Today, it has none of those advantages, and it faces an enemy far more lethal, and based across the border in Syria.

“There are just a lot of least-bad options right now,” says Patrick Skinner, a former CIA operative in Iraq who frequently travels to the region for the Soufan Group, a private intelligence organization staffed by former CIA and FBI personnel. “I’m not political in any way, but I don’t fault the administration too much for the situation overall. I mean, you’ve got Syria collapsing and a civil war in the heart of the Middle East along with everything else going wrong. We can change certain things, but to change the overall trajectory of that is an international and regional affair.”

Others aren’t as kind to President Obama. “The White House is the big issue,” says Charles Faddis, a former top CIA operative in Kurdistan during the run-up to the Iraq war in 2002 and 2003. “There’s no plan, no coherence, just half-measures, not enough to accomplish anything” in Syria. “Nobody wants anything to do with it. It’s not just that the agency has no appetite for it. They’re also having trouble getting the [Jordanians] enthusiastic about” taking the battle to Syria. “All they see is half-measures, and that’s enough to piss anybody off.”