NATO Not Coming To Kiev's Rescue, Regardless Of Putin's Actions

[Purveyor]

Mark MacKinnon
Cardiff — The Globe and Mail
Published Tuesday, Sep. 02 2014, 9:02 AM EDT

This week’s NATO summit will seek to deliver a strong message to Russian President Vladimir Putin of the alliance’s willingness to defend its members – including the vulnerable Baltic States – against aggression. But the subtext of that statement will disappoint a Ukrainian government desperately appealing for help: NATO isn’t coming to Kiev’s rescue, no matter what Mr. Putin’s armies and surrogates do in that country.

In an agenda-setting speech ahead of the crucial summit that begins Thursday in Wales, NATO deputy secretary general Alexander Vershbow said Russia’s military moves in Ukraine had created a new solidarity and resolve to defend the alliance’s borders. That new sense of purpose, he said, was reflected in a “Readiness Action Plan” that NATO leaders would announce this week, including the creation of a small “spearhead” force of several thousand troops that will be stationed in Eastern Europe and able to deploy to a crisis within 48 hours.

But, he made clear, that solidarity didn’t extend to non-member Ukraine, where NATO says Russian troops and tanks are now directly aiding rebels in the east of the country. Asked if there was any “red line” Mr. Putin could cross that would prompt NATO involvement in the country, Mr. Vershbow left no doubt that Ukraine would have to fight alone.

“I don’t see any red line that, if crossed, would lead to military engagement” in Ukraine, he told a “NATO after the Wales Summit” seminar hosted by Cardiff University. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko will attend this week’s NATO meeting as a non-member observer.

“Ukraine understands that they’re not a beneficiary of an Article 5 [NATO collective defence] guarantee,” Mr. Vershbow told The Globe and Mail afterwards. “But I think we will show solidarity with Ukraine, meeting with Poroshenko. We’ll roll out some of the assistance that we’ve been working on for Ukraine… it may not be everything that everybody wants, but again NATO is not the only responder. The broad international message from NATO, from the EU, from other actors, hopefully will make a difference.”

more...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/protect-baltic-states-not-ukraine-nato-told-ahead-of-summit/article20296698/

[geek tragedy]

1. there was never any hope of stopping Putin from doing what he wanted to Ukraine, up to and including

rolling his tanks into Kiev.

The calculus has been to inflict damage upon Russia's economy and standing in the world as a consequence. It gains territory and resources, it loses the ability to project power outside its border.

Nobody really gives a fuck about Ukraine. They do care about putting Putin back in his cage.

[Purveyor]

2. Hmmm... Do I detect a whiff of inevitability in the air. Vlad has factored in

every consequence to be had and he is ok with dealing with it as so it seems the does the Russian populace.

The Russian people were so humiliated at the fall of the USSR with the 'wests' rubbing their noses into it, they have nothing but pride to witness the 'Bear' back on the prowl.

They will patriotically suffer through whatever economic sanctions that may disrupt their daily routine and come out an even stronger due to it.

I doubt the citizens of the EU have such a stomach for such consequences and economic consequences there will be.

[geek tragedy]

3. They will suffer, but Russia will be weaker.

They have nothing else to be proud of, so I guess bullying neighbors and impovershment is their only source of self-esteem. I'm sure that will be of great consolation every time Beijing says "fill 'er up."

Ukraine will get resolved, NATO will put up a firewall everywhere else, and European capital will avoid the erratic and volatile Eurasian gangster state, with energy alternatives fast-tracked.

[Purveyor]

4. consolation every time Beijing says "fill 'er up." LOL and when Beijing tells the US

to 'pay your fucking tab'...

Thanks for the {{{chuckle}}}, indeed.

[geek tragedy]

5. Owe the bank $1,000, the bank owns you. Owe the bank $1 trillion, you own the bank.

China is at least as dependent, probably moreso, upon the United States than vice versa. Those capital inflows don't grow on trees.

Russia is a commodity exporter, a gas station, not an economy that provides human-added value in manufacturing or services.

The US is not only that, but a customer as well.

[Igel]

6. For a few weeks. Perhaps a few months.

The same claim was made after Georgia.

Instead, years later, Russia is stronger and the West is the same. We talk, but that's all.

Inaction in Moldova encouraged action in Abkhazia. Inaction in Abkhazia encouraged S. Ossetia. Inaction in S. Ossetia encouraged Ukraine.

[geek tragedy]

7. Russia is not terribly strong. It's running out

of states to bully this side of China.

They've managed to scare the Europeans to wean themselves off of Russian carbon.

How much will investors be willing to stick into the economy of such a gangster state unless it is in hard commodities?