What Might Persuade Hillary Clinton Not To Run In 2016.

[elleng]

Most speculation about the 2016 presidential election has taken at least one thing for granted: Hillary Clinton will run. But the Cook Political Report’s Charlie Cook recently threw some cold water on that assumption (or at least some lukewarm water); Cook estimated Clinton has only a 60 to 70 percent chance of running.

I have no clue whether Cook’s estimate is right. But recent data illustrates why Clinton might balk at running: She no longer looks quite so invincible, and early indicators point toward a Republican-leaning political environment.

We’re still a long way from the 2016 election, but Clinton needs to decide soon whether to run. The political landscape right now is more Republican-leaning than at a comparable point in the 2012 cycle (when President Obama, with a 46 percent approval rating, led a generic Republican 42 percent to 39 percent). Obama’s approval has dropped to 42 percent.

In four polls conducted over the past month, YouGov asked more than 2,500 registered voters whether they would vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for president in 2016. The Republican candidate led, on average, 39.2 percent to 36.7 percent. Again, these results are among registered, not likely, voters, so this lead has nothing to do with turnout.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-might-persuade-hillary-clinton-not-to-run-in-2016/

[PeoViejo]

1. An Epiphany. n/t

[billhicks76]

2. She's In Bed With The Bush Family

Exposing this would make Jeb And Hillary hide under the rock from which they crawled.

[yurbud]

3. "early indicators point toward a Republican-leaning political environment" was what got Bill in

The likely front runners in '92 stayed out because they thought Papa Bush would be invincible because of the Gulf War, and by the time it was clear he screwed the pooch (ironically, politically but not in terms of geopolitics), it was too late for the usual Democratic players to jump back in.

Hence the Bubba and Hillary dynasty.

[4dsc]

4. A year of republicans in Congress will change peoples minds

Screw the so called early indicators because they nothing. Wait for the GOP to totally screw up while trying lead Congress and the Senate and they'll hand to election to Hillary if she decides to run.