NATO invents Russian threats in the Baltic - but Putin's next big play is Greece

[bemildred]

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Fallon - and NATO - should keep their eyes on the ball

But while Fallon's attention is focused on the imaginary threat to the Baltic states, there is another country that really could be 'at risk' - and not because of cyber-attack, invasion by 'green men' or a campaign of destablisation emanating from the Kremlin.

No, the EU, the European Central Bank, the IMF and European finance ministers have already been doing all the destablisation that's needed - forcing Greece into a deep programme of austerity that has seen the economy shrink by 25% over five years, the closure of vital public services, mass unemployment and the forced sell-off of public assets.

And now the Greeks - and their newly elected Syriza government - have had enough. This week the Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras flatly refused to renew the €240 billion 'bailout' package, which comes with all the austerity strings, and he today advanced proposals for a 'six-month assistance package' free of harsh conditions to give Greece time to renegotiate its debt.

The standoff continues, and will be decided tomorrow by EU finance ministers. It's not looking good: Germany has already stated that the Greek proposal "does not meet the conditions". But if the finance minsters don't agree, then what?

http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_comments/commentators/2761347/nato_invents_russian_threats_in_the_baltic_but_putins_next_big_play_is_greece.html

[bemildred]

1. Russia 'must' do this. Russia 'must' do that. Or else what?

Events in Ukraine prompt a flurry of British statements.

Defence Secretary Michael Fallon warns of a "real and present danger" that Vladimir Putin will launch a campaign of undercover attacks to destabilise the Baltic states on NATO’s eastern flank, testing NATO’s resolve with the same Kremlin-backed subversion used in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Mr Fallon said that NATO "must" be prepared to repel Russian aggression in “whatever form it takes”.

Sounds as if things are getting serious. Or are they? Over on the UK Ministry of Defence website there are 16 Policies, with Defending the UK and its NATO Allies from Russian Destabilisation prominently not mentioned.

Sir John Sawers also talked about Russia in his first speech following the end of his time as Chief of MI6 (disclaimer: I worked with Sir John in preparing the speech):

Mr Putin insists that Russia’s own security is at stake in Ukraine. That European Values and European Order for Ukraine undermine Russian Values and Russian Order.

This position flatly contradicts all the agreements Russia itself has signed - and helped negotiate - supporting European order and values. But we deal with the Russia we have, not the Russia we’d like to have.

We could take on Moscow, stepping up our response. Provide weapons to Ukraine so it can defend itself. More stringent sanctions. But how would Mr Putin respond?

As long as Mr Putin sees the issue in terms of Russia’s own security he will be prepared to go further than us. So he would respond with further escalation on the ground. Perhaps cyber attacks against us.

We have thousands of deaths in Ukraine. We could start to get tens of thousands. Then what?

Good question.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11422632/Russia-must-do-this.-Russia-must-do-that.-Or-else-what.html

[KoKo]

2. Article #1 is a very interesting read....

NATO invents Russian threats in the Baltic - but Putin's next big play is Greece

Oliver Tickell

[bemildred]

3. Yes.

I don't want to speculate about that until we see how the Greeks do on their own, but it is obvious that it will come into play.

Putin now has his blocking allies in place, in the Donbass, in Greece. They must expel them or deal with them, Ukraine, the EU, and NATO, respectively. Those blocking allies will likely use all the democratic pretensions of those entities against them too. It should get quite bizarre before it's done.

[bemildred]

4. A propos to that:

A new energy deal cements ties between Russia and Hungary

On Wednesday the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban stepped up his criticism of his EU allies, saying they were trying to isolate Moscow over Ukraine. His comments came a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Budapest for talks. The two leaders cemented their growing ties and agreed on an energy deal. Kerry Skyring reports.

http://www.dw.de/a-new-energy-deal-cements-ties-between-russia-and-hungary/av-18268813

[bemildred]

5. NATO should increase pressure on Russia over Ukraine: Turkey

The NATO alliance should increase its pressure on Russia over Ukraine, Turkey’s parliament speaker has said, describing tension between NATO and Russia on the issue as a “fault line.”

“We should sensitively emphasize this [Ukraine]. Pressure must be increased [against Russia]. It’s not possible for the NATO alliance to behave as if nothing happened and to merely watch developments,” Parliament Speaker Cemil Çiçek said at a meeting with a delegation from the U.S. House of Representatives, led by Michael Turner, who is also the head of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly.

Turkey has long pursued a low profile stance within NATO on the ongoing Ukraine crisis. However, Çiçek’s statement indicates that Ankara may be moving further in line with the alliance on the issue.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/nato-should-increase-pressure-on-russia-over-ukraine-turkey.aspx?pageID=238&nID=78596&NewsCatID=510

[KoKo]

7. So would this posturing signal trouble for pipeline to Greece?

I found this article searching for something else. It's interesting, according to this writer, that Russia still has open possibilities as to where it places the pipeline. The source is a new strategic "think tank" group so don't know if they are biased in some way. Nice maps with article, though.
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Russia and Turkey’s Gas Deal can Save Europe and the World

By: Joaquin Flores

If an actual Russian-Turkish stream is built, this will be the case, that Russian efforts have not gone to waste. But what is most critical at this stage is that it adds credence to the Russian announcement. Looking at the map we can see that this is not simply a pipeline to Turkey. It is not simply a different deal, now aimed at Turkey.

No, clearly this is a repackaged South Stream pipeline which now simply routes 150km south of the Bulgarian South Stream proposal, and through Turkey instead. It also combines, now, elements of the Turkish Nabucco plan, as it now involves Greece and Macedonia, before it would turn north through Serbia, as well as having the potential to reconsider the Southern Corridor, as we will explore later in this report.

Perhaps under Russian consultation of this possibility, we can understand why Serbia began construction not in the south-east where it would have connected to the Bulgarian line, but rather in Novi Sad in the north. This pipe laid in Novi Sad would be the route of either a South Stream or a slightly revised Nabucco in its new incarnation as the Russian-Turkish line. Taken together, this new plan is the Russian-Turkish deal.

Indeed, we can see that with some modification, Russia and Turkey has proposed to combine the Nabucco and South Stream projects. This was actually proposed by Chief Executive Officer of Italian energy company Eni, Paolo Scaronione, the Italian project company involved in South Stream, at an early stage of negotiations. While mainstream reporting gave a number of reasons why this proposal was initially rejected, what we know for certain is that the logistics and workability of such a plan to combine these two projects have been known about for several years [3].

http://syncreticstudies.com/2014/12/11/russia-and-turkeys-gas-deal-can-save-europe-and-the-world/

[bemildred]

8. I think not.

Strings are being pulled, allies are being prompted to make statements, etc. These people are not just deciding they need to speak up.

Although Turkey is hard to predict, and they don't get along with Greece.

[KoKo]

9. Yes...that Greece/Turkey Conflict still goes deep...

And, there's some news about Turkey I just saw that they've been working on a deal with China for a Defense System. "Hair on Fire" in some circles..I would imagine.

There are other reports about this...but, here, from USA's own "Voice of America."

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Turkey, China Still Talking Over Missile-defense System

Reuters

Last updated on: February 19, 2015 9:28 AM
ANKARA—

Turkey has not made a final decision on its planned long-range, missile-defense system and contract talks with China are continuing, an official for Turkey's Defense Industries Undersecretariat told Reuters Thursday.

The official was speaking after Defense Minister Ismet Yilmaz said in a written answer to a parliamentary question that a bid assessment had been completed and no new official bid was received in the tender, first awarded to China Precision Machinery Import and Export Corp in 2013.

Turkey is in talks over a $3.4 billion missile-defense system from China, Yilmaz said, despite U.S. and NATO concerns over security and compatibility of weaponry.

Yilmaz said in a written response to a parliamentary question published on Thursday that Ankara would use the long-range system without integrating it with NATO's system.

Turkey's initial plan to award the bid to China Precision Machinery Import and Export Corp in 2013 prompted U.S. and NATO officials to say the deal could raise questions over security.

http://www.voanews.com/content/reu-turkey-to-go-ahead-with-non-nato-integrated-chinese-missile-defense/2650168.html

[bemildred]

13. Yes, I think the current Greek government might try to patch things up,

but Erdogan may well not want to go along, he may prefer the way it is.

[bemildred]

6. Russia strongly reacts to EU's remarks that India should 'persuade' Moscow on Ukraine

NEW DELHI: Russia today reacted sharply to EU's comments that India should "persuade" Moscow over events in Ukraine, saying it is "sly distortion" of the core reasons which led to the intra-Ukrainian conflict and alleged that with tacit support of the US and EU a violent coup took place in Kiev in February 2014.

"The reported call of the European Union's envoy to India to 'persuade' Russia over events in Eastern regions of the Ukraine is a case of sheer duplicity and sly distortion of the core reasons which led to the intra-Ukrainian conflict," Russian embassy here said in a strongly-worded statement.

"The EU should retrospect on its own policy of appeasement instead of trying to seek India's services in persuading Russia to do something. Such kind of 'persuasion' is alien to Russia-India relations.

"Our special and privileged strategic partnership has no relation to the West's blunders in their policies towards the Ukraine and Kiev's self-induced crisis. We highly value India's balanced and independent approach to this issue," it further added.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/russia-strongly-reacts-to-eus-remarks-that-india-should-persuade-moscow-on-ukraine/articleshow/46303972.cms

[KoKo]

10. Definitely a "Strongly Worded Message."

But....India has to play both sides..

As so many do these days or always, really, in hopes of survival in times of Great Strife.

[KoKo]

11. Then This: "US Embassy: Turkey, US sign deal to train, arm Syrian rebels"

US Embassy: Turkey, US sign deal to train, arm Syrian rebels

ISTANBUL (AP) — Turkey and the United States signed an agreement Thursday to train and arm Syrian rebels fighting the Islamic State group, said the U.S. Embassy in Ankara.

The two countries have been in talks about such a pact for several months. The deal was signed Thursday evening by U.S Ambassador John Bass and Turkish Foreign Ministry undersecretary Feridun Sinirlioglu, said Embassy spokesman Joe Wierichs. He gave no further details.

Sinirlioglu called the deal "an important step" in the strategic partnership between Turkey and the United States, according to Turkish state-run Anadolu Agency.

The Turkish government has said the training by U.S. and Turkish soldiers could begin as early as next month at a base in the central Anatolian city of Kirsehir, and involve hundreds of Syrian fighters in the first year. The U.S. has said the goal is to go after the Islamic State group, but Turkish officials have suggested that the trained rebels could also target the Syrian government of President Bashar Assad.

With its 750 mile border on Syria, Turkey is a key part of the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State group. But negotiations with the U.S. over what to do about the Islamic militants have been fraught with disagreement — with Turkey insisting that the coalition needs to also target the Assad government.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/e4083f2e5977428a95623248aaeef3fe/us-embassy-turkey-us-sign-deal-train-arm-syrian-rebels

[bemildred]

12. The thing is Erdogan thinks he's an independent actor, as you can see.

The Neo-Ottoman thing, so he'll try to do business with everybody. He's going to be a problem for NATO too.