T.K. Jones, 82, Dies; Arms Official Saw Nuclear War as Survivable

[bananas]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/24/us/thomas-k-jones-us-arms-negotiator-dies-at-82.html?_r=0

T.K. Jones, 82, Dies; Arms Official Saw Nuclear War as Survivable
By SAM ROBERTSMAY 23, 2015

Thomas K. Jones, an American defense official and arms negotiator who turned Nikita Khrushchev’s defiant “We will bury you” threat on its head when he declared in 1982 that Americans could survive a Soviet nuclear attack by digging shelters — “If there are enough shovels to go around,” he said, “everybody’s going to make it” — died on May 15 in Bellevue, Wash. He was 82.

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His “enough shovels” assurance was largely derided, but his faith in the efficacy of civil defense, his certitude that the Soviets were better prepared to rebound from a nuclear strike and his fears that the United States was lagging in weapons development undergirded the Reagan administration’s aggressive missile defense strategy and its resolve during arms limitation talks to maintain America’s bomber superiority.

Mr. Jones, the deputy under secretary of defense for strategic and theater nuclear forces and a technical adviser to the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks, was an acolyte of Paul Nitze, an architect of Cold War arms policy. Mr. Nitze, a deputy defense secretary under President Lyndon B. Johnson, co-founded Team B, the think tank whose assessment of America’s vulnerability to Soviet weapons — it later appeared to have been overstated — prompted an arms race that began in the waning days of Jimmy Carter’s administration and accelerated under Ronald Reagan.

Mr. Jones operated mostly below the radar until 1982 when, in an interview with Robert Scheer of The Los Angeles Times, he delivered his “enough shovels” civil defense prescription.

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[PeoViejo]

1. Apparently Ronnie thought so too.

He ordered the activation of the Sprint Missile System prior to Able-Archer '83, figuring they could stop any incoming Soviet Warheads. Problem was that Ronnie had no idea what the EMP effects of using that system would have caused. It freaked out the Soviets enough to presume he was planning a First Strike, especially after Ronnie also ordered that Live Tactical Nuclear Warheads be issued to front-line troops, instead of the usual inert Training Warheads. To top it off, the Continuation of Government facilities were ordered ready and he planned to watch the show from the Command Bunker.

The Soviets were not happy campers.

[PeoViejo]

2. Operation RYaN

https://nsarchive.wordpress.com/2014/01/29/stasi-documents-provide-operational-details-on-operation-ryan-the-soviet-plan-to-predict-and-preempt-a-western-nuclear-strike-show-uneasiness-over-degree-of-clear-headedness-about-the-entire-ryan/

[Warpy]

3. He was dangerously delusional.

While some humans might survive, civilization would be completely lost and humanity would have to start over completely, weakened by radiation for generations as fallout dust circled the planet.

"The living will envy the dead" sums up the aftermath of a large nuclear conflict aptly, IMO.

[bananas]

4. I remember when "The Day After" aired

The TV rooms on campus were packed and overflowing into the hallways.

[bananas]

5. The Day After is currently the highest-rated television film in history.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Day_After

The Day After is a 1983 American television film that aired on November 20, 1983, on the ABC television network. It was seen by more than 100 million people during its initial broadcast.[1] It is currently the highest-rated television film in history.[2]

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Meyer's original cut ran two hours and twenty minutes, which he presented to the network. After the screening, the executives were sobbing and seemed deeply affected, leading Meyer to believe they approved of his cut.

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Meyer persuaded ABC to ... put a disclaimer at the end of the film, following the credits, letting the viewer know that The Day After downplayed the true effects of nuclear war so they would be able to have a story.

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ABC censors severely toned down scenes to reduce the body count or severe burn victims.

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JoBeth Williams' character was originally scripted with a death scene, asking whether the living envy the dead in a nuclear war's aftermath. This scene was cut when the film was reduced to two hours.

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On its original broadcast (Sunday, November 20, 1983), ABC and local TV affiliates opened 1-800 hotlines with counselors standing by. There were no commercial breaks after the nuclear attack. ABC then aired a live debate, hosted by Nightline's Ted Koppel, featuring the scientist Carl Sagan, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, Elie Wiesel, former Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara, General Brent Scowcroft and conservative commentator William F. Buckley, Jr.. Sagan argued against nuclear proliferation, while Buckley promoted the concept of nuclear deterrence. Sagan described the arms race in the following terms: "Imagine a room awash in gasoline, and there are two implacable enemies in that room. One of them has nine thousand matches, the other seven thousand matches. Each of them is concerned about who's ahead, who's stronger."[citation needed]

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President Ronald Reagan watched the film several days before its screening, on November 5, 1983. He wrote in his diary that the film was "very effective and left me greatly depressed,"[14] and that it changed his mind on the prevailing policy on a "nuclear war".[16] The film was also screened for the Joint Chiefs of Staff. A government advisor who attended the screening, a friend of Meyer's, told him "If you wanted to draw blood, you did it. Those guys sat there like they were turned to stone." Four years later, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty was signed and in Reagan's memoirs he drew a direct line from the film to the signing.[14]

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