Lack Of Russia Experts Has Some In U.S. Worried

[Purveyor]

While the international war against the Islamic State and a multilateral nuclear deal with Iran underscore Russia’s growing influence in major foreign policy challenges around the world, there are growing concerns that Washington’s lack of understanding of its one-time chief adversary is proving to be a critical national security risk.

Top intelligence and national security officials — including the top general of NATO — have warned that the United States’ depth of knowledge and capacity for collecting information on Russia is not up to snuff, given the stakes of the conflicts at hand and the threat an unpredictable Kremlin poses to U.S. interests.

Experts, lawmakers and former administration officials describe a national security apparatus that, once teeming with experienced Russia specialists, including at the highest levels of decision-making, now relies on looser regime of more junior experts who lack the reach to directly influence policy. The result, they say, is a series of missed opportunities to anticipate Moscow’s recent moves in areas such as Ukraine and Syria, even when clues were readily available.

“We’ve been surprised at every turn,” said Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain (R-Ariz.). “We were surprised when they went into Crimea, we were surprised when they went into Syria.”

Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Chairman Richard Burr (R-N.C.) said there has been some “atrophy” in the government’s Russia expertise since the Cold War, a trend that needs to be reversed.

MORE...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2015/12/30/lack-of-russia-experts-has-the-u-s-playing-catch-up/

[leveymg]

1. There is "atrophe" among foreign policy "experts" in general as they cling to a myth of US hegemony.

John McCain is perhaps the most atrophied and myth encrusted of all. The status quo view that places America in control is dangerously obsolete. The rest of the world, including Russia, can see our stack of chips is nearly gone and has finally called our bluff. The Washington foreign policy establishment needs to be removed from the table before they kill us.

[Dr. Xavier]

4. We have ruled the table long enough

we are unwilling to admit the new players. We will be unpleasantly surprised at the call...

[leveymg]

5. The Casino has been sold to new management in the Mideast.

The problem is way bigger than the declining stack of chips on our side of the table. The House always wins. Time to find a new game.

[Igel]

2. Yup. n/t

[tech3149]

3. Yea, well I think the problem isn't a lack of knowledge

It's more a problem of ignoring what you don't want to believe. There were those in the intelligence agencies that foretold the fall of the Soviet Union but you didn't see it on the TV.

[leveymg]

6. The analysts who foresaw that had their reports rewritten

My father in law was an East Europe area officer at DIA and he found his briefing to Casper Weinberger had been changed to fit the party line. All the good parts about collapsing revenue streams, morale and infrastructure were omitted in the final draft.

This sort of thing also went on during the Vietnam War, but the adjustment of intelligence was on the underestimation side. That didn't end well.

Glad to someone has regained the courage to push back against consumer expectations.

[tech3149]

7. Thank You for stating some truth

We really need to counter the kiss up & kick down mentality of the intelligence and military. I'd rather have a knock down drag out fight with someone who challenged my thinking than deal with the cost of mistakes made when everybody said "yes Sir".

[bemildred]

11. Yeah, I remember that.

Makes me think of Exxon and climate change.

For the man in the paddock, whose duty it is to sweep up manure, the supreme terror is the possibility of a world without horses.
-- Henry Miller in Tropic of Cancer"

[geek tragedy]

8. the problem is that, whereas in the Soviet Union there was a party and a system

that drove decisions, including a Politburo, Russia has a king now who makes all of the decisions--it's a lot harder to read what's going on in one man's head than understanding an entire system.

[shadowmayor]

9. Condi

Just give Condoleezza a call as she is regarded as a super Russia expert. Other than missing the fall of the Soviet Union, the coup d'etat put down by Yeltsin and a host of other major incidents, she's got "credentials". Hell, her record on foreign policy is exemplary. We didn't get nuked by Saddam as she single-handedly stopped Cleveland from being nuked, she stopped Saddam and Osama from forming an evil army like ISIS and she even disposed of millions of tons of WMD's while putting those good Iraqis on a pathway to modern democracy. With experts like Condi, who needs idiots?

[bemildred]

10. It seems to me they get much too emotionally involved, our "leaders".

It's not foreign affairs, it's personal vendettas, good guys and bad guys, us and them. This is NOT what you want in your intelligence and planning leadership.

[bemildred]

12. Michael McFaul | Can the US and Russia cooperate in Syria?

Stuff like this, he starts our all reasonable and by the end you can almost see the spittle flying from his lips.

President Vladimir Putin’s decision to intervene in Syria marked a major turning point in Russian foreign policy in 2015. Over the past 15 years, Putin has increasingly relied on the use of military power to achieve his domestic and foreign policy objectives, starting with the invasion of Chechnya in 1999, then of Georgia in 2008, and then of Ukraine in 2014. Putin’s Syria gambit was the logical, if dramatic, next step in Russia’s increasingly aggressive foreign policy.

---

Such conclusions are premature. In the long run, Russia could become a partner in the global fight against terrorism. And, in principle, the US, the European Union and countries around the world should welcome Russian cooperation in this mission. In practice, however, several key short-term issues must be resolved before the long-term goal of cooperation with Russia can be achieved.

---

Third, Russia must change its bombing methods. Too many civilians are dying. These types of attacks by Russia generate more inspiring footage for jihadi channels on YouTube—exactly what the Islamic State wants.

Fourth, Russian media must stop accusing the US of supporting the Islamic State. How can the US join forces with a country that makes such false claims and portrays America as the enemy?

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/lbpXo0pNykKIZk04K9kXPL/Michael-McFaul--Can-the-US-and-Russia-cooperate-in-Syria.html