Armed Clash in the South China Sea - It's getting serious.

[Lodestar]

Another quagmire in the making:

Introduction

The risk of conflict in the South China Sea is significant. China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and the Philippines have competing territorial and jurisdictional claims, particularly over rights to exploit the region's possibly extensive reserves of oil and gas. Freedom of navigation in the region is also a contentious issue, especially between the United States and China over the right of U.S. military vessels to operate in China's two-hundred-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ). These tensions are shaping—and being shaped by—rising apprehensions about the growth of China's military power and its regional intentions. China has embarked on a substantial modernization of its maritime paramilitary forces as well as naval capabilities to enforce its sovereignty and jurisdiction claims by force if necessary. At the same time, it is developing capabilities that would put U.S. forces in the region at risk in a conflict, thus potentially denying access to the U.S. Navy in the western Pacific.

Given the growing importance of the U.S.-China relationship, and the Asia-Pacific region more generally, to the global economy, the United States has a major interest in preventing any one of the various disputes in the South China Sea from escalating militarily.

The Contingencies

Of the many conceivable contingencies involving an armed clash in the South China Sea, three especially threaten U.S. interests and could potentially prompt the United States to use force.

The most likely and dangerous contingency is a clash stemming from U.S. military operations within China's EEZ that provokes an armed Chinese response. The United States holds that nothing in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) or state practice negates the right of military forces of all nations to conduct military activities in EEZs without coastal state notice or consent. China insists that reconnaissance activities undertaken without prior notification and without permission of the coastal state violate Chinese domestic law and international law. China routinely intercepts U.S. reconnaissance flights conducted in its EEZ and periodically does so in aggressive ways that increase the risk of an accident similar to the April 2001 collision of a U.S. EP-3 reconnaissance plane and a Chinese F-8 fighter jet near Hainan Island. A comparable maritime incident could be triggered by Chinese vessels harassing a U.S. Navy surveillance ship operating in its EEZ, such as occurred in the 2009 incidents involving the USNS Impeccable and the USNS Victorious. The large growth of Chinese submarines has also increased the danger of an incident, such as when a Chinese submarine collided with a U.S. destroyer's towed sonar array in June 2009. Since neither U.S. reconnaissance aircraft nor ocean surveillance vessels are armed, the United States might respond to dangerous behavior by Chinese planes or ships by dispatching armed escorts. A miscalculation or misunderstanding could then result in a deadly exchange of fire, leading to further military escalation and precipitating a major political crisis. Rising U.S.-China mistrust and intensifying bilateral strategic competition would likely make managing such a crisis more difficult.

A second contingency involves conflict between China and the Philippines over natural gas deposits, especially in the disputed area of Reed Bank, located eighty nautical miles from Palawan. Oil survey ships operating in Reed Bank under contract have increasingly been harassed by Chinese vessels. Reportedly, the United Kingdom-based Forum Energy plans to start drilling for gas in Reed Bank this year, which could provoke an aggressive Chinese response. Forum Energy is only one of fifteen exploration contracts that Manila intends to offer over the next few years for offshore exploration near Palawan Island. Reed Bank is a red line for the Philippines, so this contingency could quickly escalate to violence if China intervened to halt the drilling.

The United States could be drawn into a China-Philippines conflict because of its 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines. The treaty states, "Each Party recognizes that an armed attack in the Pacific Area on either of the Parties would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common dangers in accordance with its constitutional processes." American officials insist that Washington does not take sides in the territorial dispute in the South China Sea and refuse to comment on how the United States might respond to Chinese aggression in contested waters.

cont;d
http://www.cfr.org/world/armed-clash-south-china-sea/p27883

[Turbineguy]

1. Everybody gets 200 miles.

Where the areas overlap, we share. Like we learned in kindergarten.

[Lodestar]

2. I predict that TPP will require some heavy duty American military presence

Last edited Tue Mar 8, 2016, 09:56 AM - Edit history (2)

in order to maintain this pivot to the east asian area.

[bananas]

5. AEI?

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/American_Enterprise_Institute
http;//www.rightwingwatch.org/content/american-enterprise-institute

[Lodestar]

6. Oops...

I'll delete it.

[Herman4747]

3. It's sad that China can't be a good neighbor. n/t

[Lodestar]

4. GEOPOLITICS of that region

Found this article which offers a perspective on the geopolitical gamesmanship unfolding between China and U.S. in that region and the TPP. Actually the whole article covers much
wider trends geopolitically (like the rise of populism) that makes for some very interesting reading:
-----

IS, TPP, South China Sea: The 2016 Geopolitical Outlook

excerpt:

Issue #5: TPP – Trouble in the South China Sea

Since 1979, when Deng Xiaoping set China on its current course of modernization, the country has seen remarkable economic growth. In 1979, China was around 2.3% of global GDP; as of 2014, it was 16.5%, just above the U.S. reading of 16.3%.6 As China’s economy has expanded, its geopolitical influence has as well.

To some extent, tensions between China and the U.S., along with China’s neighbors, are a classic example of the risks that come when a new power rises in a region. China wants to expand its power and insists that the U.S., the incumbent superpower, accommodate its rise.

The dynamics of this situation play out in a number of ways. The Trans-Pacific Partnership ( TPP ), a trade agreement that includes a dozen nations in the Pacific Rim, excludes China. The U.S. is trying to establish the rules of regional trade and assumes that, eventually, China will join the TPP and be forced to abide by the U.S. trade framework.

At the same time, China is working to create a new infrastructure bank for Asia, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), as a competitor for the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank. The Obama administration strongly opposed the creation of the AIIB; despite U.S. pressure, numerous nations, including some G-7 partners, decided to join the bank, a blow to the administration’s foreign policy.

China fears the U.S. is trying to prevent it from projecting power in the region. This is probably true. Although America welcomes China’s “peaceful rise,” the assumption among U.S. policymakers is that China would eventually democratize as its economy grew. Historically, many developing nations use authoritarian systems in their early development. However, domestic political pressure to give citizens a greater voice and the need to allow markets to allocate investment usually forces strongmen to democratize. In general, successful states manage this transition to democracy; those that can’t tend to see their growth stall. For example, South Korea made the transition; Pakistan did not.

However, China represents a different case. In these other cases, these states did not necessarily have a developed ideology. In China, the communist ideology has become one of the bases of legitimacy. Most authoritarian regimes become cults of personality that don’t outlive the dictator. Although China clearly has personality cults in its history, the Communist Party of China (CPC) has become the primary conduit of political power. It’s not obvious if any of the CPC members really believe in Marx anymore, but they all say they do; perhaps this belief system remains in order to keep the power structure in place. In addition, the ability to deliver economic growth has bolstered the CPC’s legitimacy. For now, the CPC leadership seems to believe it has created a new paradigm of market capitalism with non-democratic governance that is superior to market capitalism with democracy.


China is trying to project power in the Far East and Southeast Asia. It is rapidly building its navy. The “Silk Road” program of creating land and sea bridges to Europe and the Middle East appears to be due to fears that the U.S. Navy could block China’s trade by sealing off the Strait of Malacca and the first island chain surrounding the country. Extensive road-building through Pakistan is part of this program.

In the South China Sea, China has begun an aggressive dredging program to build up coral atolls and use them to claim sovereignty and create potential military bases to project power in the region. As one would expect, other nations in the area are quite concerned about this activity. The Philippines, for example, appears to be welcoming the U.S. back after forcing the closures of American military bases in the early 1990s.

The Obama administration has been testing Chinese resolve by sending U.S. Navy ships close to these artificial islands. Thus far, these actions have been well-telegraphed and the militaries on both sides have been courteous, avoiding any unexpected escalations. Nevertheless, anytime militaries are in close proximity, mistakes can happen.

The other major worry is that the Xi government is trying to manage a critical economic transition from relying on investment and exports for growth to depending on consumption to expand. Other nations have struggled with this transition.9 If growth slows more than the government wants, it will be tempted to distract Chinese citizens with a “foreign adventure.”

http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/12/tpp-china/