Dangerous myth of China as a harmless tiger

[xchrom]

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/eo20120221a1.html

WASHINGTON — Chinese dissident writers exiled to the West today get a very different response than Soviet writers received not so long ago.

In 1975, U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger advised U.S. President Gerald Ford not to meet with writer Alexander Solzhenitsyn, warning in a memorandum that doing so would offend the Soviet Union. Now, similar views are held not only by pragmatic politicians but also by multinational corporations with investments in China as well as universities and foundations with links to China.

The Chinese communist regime's penetration of the West far exceeds that of the former Soviet Union. In the Cold War era, the Soviet Union was blocked behind the Iron Curtain; there were few links between Soviet and Western economies. An average American family would not be using products "made in the USSR."

Today, China is deeply embedded within the globalized system. An American recently wrote an interesting book detailing a year of her refusal to buy products that were "made in China" and the many difficulties she encountered as a result of this decision.

[Richardo]

1. Who the hell thinks of China as a 'harmless tiger'?

[raccoon]

2. Harmless tiger? Harmless dragon, maybe. Maybe. nt

[truebrit71]

3. The concept that 'Russia' or China are our 'friends' is one I have never bought into...

...and anyone that thinks that either of these two countries would weep should the USA implode need their heads examined...

[exboyfil]

4. All countries seek security

China is no different. The expectation would be that China would dominate its region in the same fashion as the U.S. dominates its region. China is not driven by a worldwide ideology like the Soviet Union. In a sense they are not a whole lot different that earlier mercantilism empires. So long as they continue to improve the standard of living for their citizens and maintain internal control of the political discussion, they are going to be happy. I suspect they are taking a velvet glove approach towards Taiwan, and, after seeing what happened with Hong Kong, I would suspect they Taiwan will come under their governance within the next ten years (those folks who fled to the island are almost all gone now).

I do not see China spinning out of control again, but I could be wrong. It seems everytime they are ready to claim their place as one of the top two or three countries in the world, something happens. They will avoid open conflict even through proxies with us if at all possible. The major flash area will be securing future resources to maintain their economic growth, and they must maintain that growth.

Would they unacceptably lean on some of our main allies (Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan?) I really doubt it. I think they would prefer to see N. Korea look like S. Korea versus the hellhole it currently is (that is their major cross to bare). While the Tibetian situation is awful, nothing is going to come from it. Who would opening challenge China about it. Trade sanctions??? You got to be kidding me.

They are not our friends. Frankly when it comes to countries I am not sure what it means to be friends. You have global interests and you expect certain behaviors from other countries. In a second Falklands conflict, we could very well sit it out instead of supporting our friends the Brits. I questioned the judgement in our support the first time around.

[DavidDvorkin]

5. Lord Palmerston's words are still apt:

"Therefore I say that it is a narrow policy to suppose that this country or that is to be marked out as the eternal ally or the perpetual enemy of England. We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow."

[Sabayon65]

6. I tend to think of China neither as friend nor foe

But as a rival. Their fundamental civilizational construct is different from the "White-Anglo-Saxon-Protestant" one which has come to dominate America. It is both intense competition in certain areas while cooperating in other areas (a game-theoretical approach), which drives the relationship between China and America.