Why Nations Start Dumb Wars: Is Israel Setting the Stage for Tragedy?

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http://www.alternet.org/world/154337/why_nations_start_dumb_wars%3A_is_israel_setting_the_stage_for_tragedy_/

Wars are fought because some people decide it is in their interests to fight them. World War I was not started over the Archduke Ferdinand’s assassination, nor was it triggered by the alliance system. An “incident” may set the stage for war, but no one keeps shooting unless they think it’s a good idea. The Great War started because the countries involved decided they would profit by it, delusional as that conclusion was.

It is useful to keep this idea in mind when trying to figure out whether the United States or Israel will go to war with Iran. In short, what are the interests of the protagonists, and are they important enough for those nations to take the fateful step into the chaos of battle?

Israel’s Political Problem

According to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Iran is building nuclear weapons that pose an “existential” threat to Israel. But virtually no one believes this, including the bulk of Tel Aviv’s military and intelligence communities. As former Israeli Chief of Staff Dan Halutz said recently, Iran “is not an existential” threat to Israel. There is no evidence that Iran is building a bomb, and all its facilities are currently under a 24-hour United Nations inspection regime.

So from a strictly security perspective, Israel has little reason to go to war with Iran. But Israel does have an interest in keeping the Middle East a fragmented place, riven by sectarian divisions and dominated by authoritarian governments and feudal monarchies. If there is one lesson Israel has learned from its former British overlords, it is “divide and conquer.” Among its closest allies were the former dictatorships in Egypt and Tunisia. It now finds itself on the same page as the reactionary monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman.

[Sherman A1]

1. Interesting

And I agree with the premise of understanding the parties motivations.

[CAPHAVOC]

2. The question is not if they are building a Bomb. Of course they are

It is not that hard nowdays. 70 year old technology. But are they making U235 or Plutonium that can be used in the device to set off the bomb? Israel is so small it can not absorb a hit. The Muslim fanatics are insane enough to use it. They actually think the Grand Poobah of Islam is hiding in a well waiting to pop up and take over. What are all the sanctions for if they are not building a bomb?

[Lydia Leftcoast]

3. Since Iran is nearly surrounded by U.S. troops, what they're doing is perfectly understandable

And I think Israel is even more concerned with internal cohesion than with keeping its enemies fragmented.

Relations among Israelis from different countries (especially between those whose families emigrated from Europe and those whose families emigrated from the Middle Eastern Jewish communities) are not good, due to sharp cultural differences, and there's nothing to create national unity like an outside threat.

The Iranians may be fanatics, but they're not stupid. They know that any use of an atomic weapon would lead to their own annihilation. But they feel that as long as they can keep the world guessing about their intentions, no one will attack them.

They saw what happened to Iraq.

The difference is that Iran could actually fight back if invaded.