5 things to know about Tuesday's Democratic primaries

[Uncle Joe]

1. Half of Democratic candidates support a single-payer health care system
Since 2014, we have coded congressional candidate websites to learn more about the issues they are discussing on the campaign trail. When we drill down on the number one issue Democrats discuss, health care, we see that progressives are overwhelmingly in support of single-payer or Medicare for all while establishment Democrats tend to be in favor of protecting and improving the Affordable Care Act. Should the Democrats take over the House, these findings (so far at least) indicate what could be a very interesting conversation about the future of health care. Would a Democratic House try to improve the Affordable Care Act and expand Medicaid? Or would they scrap it for something different such as extending Medicare to everyone? Thus far Medicare for all is mostly a slogan and support for it could crumble when the details are worked out. But it is an interesting idea which will make for a powerful intra-party debate.

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2. More progressives are running, but they’re finishing behind establishment Democrats
Tuesday’s primaries will also tell us some more about what’s going on within the Democratic Party as it redefines itself in the Trump era. Self-identified progressives have jumped into the 2018 primaries in large numbers. In primaries held so far this cycle, 42 percent of nonincumbent Democratic candidates label themselves as progressives. That number was 14 percent in 2014 and 13 percent in 2016. But in spite of their numbers progressives still run behind more establishment Democrats—a function no doubt of the fact that many of these progressives are relatively new to politics. As the following table shows, 29.6 percent of all progressive challengers won their primary or advanced to a runoff and 39.4 percent of establishment Democrats won their primary or advanced to a runoff.

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3. Democrats share the same priorities, but progressives speak in unison
The following table identifies the top six issues discussed by Democratic congressional candidates in the primary elections held to date. Differences on issues within a political party are never very large. As the following table shows, the top six issues mentioned by both factions are identical. Progressive candidates tend to speak in unison, mentioning a standard slate of issues, which is not surprising given that these challengers tend to be more ideologically motivated. There are slight differences in priority within each faction but they are not terribly substantial with the exception of climate change which is the second most mentioned issue among progressives and the sixth most mentioned issue among establishment Democrats.

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4. For progressives, districts that Trump carried are the ones to watch
As the following chart indicates, the majority of progressive victories so far are in congressional districts Trump carried. Come November we will be able to test the conventional wisdom and see whether or not progressive Democrats do well in Republican-leaning districts.

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https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2018/06/01/5-things-to-know-about-tuesdays-democratic-primaries/

[BigmanPigman]

1. I have been saying it forever it seems...

Dems will flip districts if they focus on affordable healthcare! Voters in both parties want this and the places that have flipped focused on this issue. The GOP owns this fuck up mess and do not let them forget it (or the tax scam). GOTV!

[Uncle Joe]

2. +1

[Judi Lynn]

3. Thanks for this important info., Uncle Joe. Rec. n/t