Trump's Lose-the-House Strategy - WSJ Editorial
Does Mr. Trump care if Republicans lose the House of Representatives this November? If that seems like an odd question, consider that Mr. Trump is running a campaign strategy that puts the House at maximum risk while focusing on the Senate. The latest evidence is Mr. Trumps threat to shut down the government in September if he doesnt get money for his border wall.
Its always risky to use the word strategy about Mr. Trump because hes so impulsive and capricious. Only last week GOP leaders thought they had his agreement to delay a wall-funding brawl until after the election. Then on Sunday Mr. Trump tweeted that I would be willing to shut down government if the Democrats do not give us the votes for Border Security, which includes the Wall!
Did Mr. Trump pop off on a whim, or did he consult Stephen Bannon, his former White House aide and strategist from 2016? The shutdown threat fits Mr. Bannons midterm election strategy, which is to stress issues that polarize the electorate to drive voter turnout among the Trump base. This means muting talk of tax cuts and the economy and talking up immigration and trade policies that bash foreigners.
Trumps second presidential race will be on November 6 of this year. Hes on the ballot, and were going to have an up or down vote. Do you back Trumps program, OK, with all thats good and all thats bad? Do you back Trumps program, or do you back removing him? Mr. Bannon said recently, though Mr. Trumps name wont be on any ballot.
A shutdown brawl fits this polarize-and-hope-to-conquer strategy. Mr. Trump may figure that shutdown pressure would force Senate incumbents running for re-election in Trump-leaning states into a corner on voting for the wall. One problem with this strategy is that Senate Democrats have enough votes to block wall funding even if they give eight of their incumbents a pass to vote for it.
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The Bannon belief that this is a base election may work in Senate races in North Dakota or Missouri, where Republicans have a party advantage. But the opposite is probably true in swing House seats. A constant focus on immigration and making this a referendum on Donald J. Trump will drive up Democratic turnout.
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A Democratic House would mean the end of most of Mr. Trumps agenda of the last two years. But Mr. Trumps policy alliance with House Republicans has been in part one of convenience. Mr. Trump could cut deals with Democrats on paid family leave, public-works spending and trade protectionism.
House Democrats would start up the impeachment machinery, and once underway the momentum would be hard to stop. But as long as hes safe from conviction by the Senate, Mr. Trump might figure he could benefit from a backlash against impeachment the way Bill Clinton did. The President and Mr. Bannon also might think a Democratic House improves Mr. Trumps chances for re-election as Republicans and independents conclude hes the only barrier to a left-wing government.
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-lose-the-house-strategy-1532990285 (paid subscription)