BTRTN: The GOP's Odds of Keeping the House are Rising - From Nearly Hopeless to Merely Terrible
Yes, the GOP's midterm position looks slightly stronger than a week ago. But it still faces daunting odds to keep the House.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/10/btrtn-midterms-snapshot-gops-odds-of.html
"There is a narrative you have been hearing like a rising drumbeat over the past week, and it can be summarized from the opening sentence of an Associated Press article yesterday:
“In the closing stretch of the 2018 campaign, the question is no longer the size of the Democratic wave. It’s whether there will be a wave at all.”
This theme is likely afoot for several reasons: 1) it’s an excellent media storyline, injecting some excitement by casting doubt on the likely outcome; 2) it offers an opportunity for journalists (and pollsters and poll aggregators) to cover their behinds so as not to commit another fiasco as in 2016; and 3) it is a motivator (for partisan Dems) to ensure that there is no complacency, that that massive Dem enthusiasm does not dwindle down the stretch.
The facts themselves do not really support such a dire view of the state of play..."