The final polls tell us why Trump may sink the GOP
The last two major generic polls came in Monday, with CNN showing a 13-point lead (larger than virtually all other recent surveys) and George Washington University poll showing an 8-point lead for the same group of people surveyed twice before. Interestingly, GWU points to higher levels of engagement (e.g., signing a petition, making a donation, attending an event) for Democrats than for Republicans.
The polls have similar results to one important question: Does the voter approve or disapprove of President Trump’s performance? Less than a third strongly approve (GWU 28 percent/CNN 30 percent), a small number somewhat approve (15/9) or somewhat disapprove (6/10) but a large plurality (47/45) strongly disapprove. Trump’s dedicated followers represent a much smaller percentage of the electorate than his most ardent critics, which does raise a dilemma for Republicans. Trump, whom a strong plurality intensely dislikes, has told voters the midterms are all about him.
Trump [on Monday] framed the vote as a referendum on his presidency so far, pointing to several accomplishments but saying “it’s all fragile.” “In a certain way, I am on the ballot,” Trump said in a phone call with supporters. “Whether we consider it or not, the press is very much considering it a referendum on me and us as a movement.”
For once, Democrats are happy to agree. (“At a Northern Virginia campaign rally, former president Barack Obama said the election will define the soul of America, as other Democrats accused Trump of fearmongering.”) What’s more, Democrats such as Obama have elevated the midterms to a referendum not on some Trump policies but on what kind of country he wants. (“The character of this country is on the ballot. The politics we expect is on the ballot. How we conduct ourselves in public life is on the ballot”). Making this about something greater than one issue, about the soul of America, gives voters some uplift at the end of a bitter campaign when voters want to feel good about their vote. Democrats are saying you can feel good — make that, noble — by casting a pro-democracy, pro-civility vote.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/opinions-the-final-polls-tell-us-why-trump-may-sink-the-gop/ar-BBPpv5R?li=BBnb7Kz
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