Two Polling Methods, Two Views of Trump's 2020 Re-election Chances
By Nate Cohn
'Is the president basically like other presidents, or is he uniquely divisive?
There are two major theories about President Trump’s standing heading into his re-election campaign. Over the last few months, they have found backing from two very different kinds of polls.
One theory holds that Mr. Trump is fundamentally like any other president. This would be good news for his chances in 2020: Many presidents have gone on to win after having approval ratings like Mr. Trump’s today, and many presidents have won after a midterm drubbing. The state of the economy could be pivotal; if it stayed strong, he would have a real chance to win. His approval rating could rise, like that of prior presidents, once voters began to assess his presidency in comparison with the alternative. His relative advantage in the Electoral College could put him over the top.
Another theory holds that President Trump and this polarized era are unique. In this view, Mr. Trump is deeply unpopular, and opinions of his presidency are entrenched. The economy cannot save him from defeat. After all, his approval ratings are poor despite low unemployment; nothing short of fundamental changes in his conduct could improve them. In this view, the 2018 midterm election, when Democrats won the national House vote by almost nine percentage points, would be a harbinger of the general.
Of course, the truth could be somewhere in between (and probably is). But these two theories have different consequences for how to think about the campaign in 2020.
In the more traditional view, Mr. Trump would have a solid chance following the same playbook as George W. Bush and Barack Obama, at least if the economy stayed strong enough. He would attack his opponent and use wedge issues (like immigration) to both mobilize his base and lure back some voters who are dissatisfied with his performance. Democrats, meanwhile, would want someone who could keep voters focused on why they’re dissatisfied with the incumbent’s conduct, defuse wedge issues, and appeal to the sort of Obama-Trump voters who have soured on the president.
But if Mr. Trump and this era are unique, then 2020 might hinge on turnout: In a polarized environment with few persuadable voters left, little else would matter. Democrats might not need to worry about whom they nominate, as long as they can energize irregular voters. In the extreme, you could argue that the president has basically already lost re-election: Voters have made up their minds, and too many dislike him for him to win.
These theories are impossible to test before the election. But the main evidence for the polarization theory comes from the polls. They have always shown the president’s approval ratings well under water, with around half of voters saying they strongly disapprove of his performance. If that ever stopped being true, it would essentially disprove the theory.'>>>
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/29/upshot/Trump-polling-re-election-chances-two-theories.html?
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