This year's Senate races spell disaster for the Republican Party

[Zorro]

Republicans are beginning to gird themselves for a landslide defeat for President Trump that drags the entire party down. It could be even worse than they think.

Elections in both the House and Senate are increasingly syncing with broader presidential races. In 2016, every Senate race was won by the same party that won that state in the presidential contest. In 2018, House races largely correlated with Trump’s approval rating, with even the most popular GOP incumbents unable to run more than a few points ahead of the president. Polls for Senate races this year show the same trend, with Republican incumbents’ totals closely matched with Trump’s.

This spells disaster for the party. Public polls show incumbent Senate Republicans trailing in five states: Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine and North Carolina. One recent poll from Georgia shows Sen. David Perdue leading his Democratic opponent, Jon Ossoff, 45 percent to 42 percent, but that same poll also shows Trump trailing presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the state by two percentage points, 47 percent to 45 percent. The clear implication is that Georgia is also in play if Trump’s ratings stay down, which would spell disaster for Republicans since the second Senate seat in Georgia, held by appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler, is also on the November ballot. That’s seven GOP-held Senate seats at a high risk of switching parties, with only the Democratic-held seat in Alabama that is seen as a likely Republican pickup to offset those losses.

It could get even worse. A University of Montana poll conducted last month shows Democratic challenger Steve Bullock ahead of Republican incumbent Steve Daines 47 percent to 43 percent, even as Trump is winning the state with 52 percent support. Before you dismiss this as a fluke, recall that Bullock is a two-term governor, which demonstrates his ability to win normally Republican votes. Montana Democratic Sen. Jon Tester also won reelection in 2018 even though exit polls showed Trump had a 51 percent job approval rating. Outside groups have already reserved more than $30 million in television time there, as both parties expect the race to be tight.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/07/08/2020-senate-map-could-be-even-worse-republicans-than-they-think/

[2naSalit]

1. K&R