Even if the Polls Are Really Off, Trump Is Still in Trouble

[shotten99]

With Joe Biden claiming almost a double-digit lead in national polls, one question still seems to loom over the race: Can we trust the polls after 2016?

It’s a good question. But for now, it is not as important as you might guess. If the election were held today, Biden would win the presidency, even if the polls were exactly as wrong as they were four years ago.

The reason is simple: His lead is far wider than Hillary Clinton’s was in the final polls, and large enough to withstand another 2016 polling meltdown.

This is not to say that Trump can’t win. There are still nearly four months to go until the election — more than enough time for the race and the polls to change. The race changed on several occasions over the final months in 2016. And this race has already changed significantly in the past four months. According to FiveThirtyEight, three months ago, Biden held a lead of only about 4 points.

And while Biden can currently survive a 2016-like polling error, there is no reason a polling error couldn’t be even larger in 2020.




[link:https://news.yahoo.com/even-polls-really-off-trump-115648643.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9zZWFyY2gueWFob28uY29tL3NlYXJjaD9wPWV2ZW4raWYrdHJ1bXAraW4rdHJvdWJsZSZmcj15ZnAtdCZmcD0xJnRvZ2dsZT0xJmNvcD1tc3MmZWk9VVRGLTg&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAERBCpc1o6mUb4cUZOFegN1Fpoqa3HGCFyTB7PxrgOocoUz9kq-L-kJdpZT8vxKElVFjcBE42d0H2kpCm0ss190H_KCJUgq2enzJBJw8NAxc-WwLRD__cG5rQ5tMkoHTqRZWJ2FJM0D96c1RQAI8vQGbQt5d-F0bbF6pbWKIZMPr|

[idziak4ever1234]

1. I don't care. I will not sleep well until November.

[Hoyt]

2. Exactly.

[Blue_playwright]

6. Not until the inauguration for me...

... I think he will try to pull some major shit when he loses and those weeks are going to be meltdown chaos.

[CentralMass]

3. The republicans vorrupt to the core. I suspect major ratfuckery will occur in November.

[SWBTATTReg]

4. And a James Comey surprise such as investigating Biden won't change the tables as every...

one will know that this latest attempt to paint Biden as an evildoer etc. is fake and a blatant attempt to smear Biden's stellar record as a man of the people. rump will be desperate and get even more desperate as the summer goes on and the CV cases keep piling up (along with the death count). And guess what the republican controlled Senate will do? Nothing as usual, McConnell will keep saying NO, NO, NO to everything and get nothing done yet still. All while Americans are hurting (physically, mentally, fiscally, etc.).

It goes to truly show all just what the republicans stand for. Business full speed ahead, schools full speed ahead, everyone else, get the hell out of the way! Disgusting. Everyone of these scumbag senators and representatives (republicans) should be thoroughly ashamed of their behavior and anti-American behavior. They will pay for their crime of indifference to the demands of parents (don't send kids back to school), and families (protect our elderly) and general population of each of their states, by stating that businesses are far more important than the consumers and workers and thus, all should reopen immediately (and continuing to expose all to the CV despite it still raging unabated).

[Walleye]

5. Plus, trump is the incumbent.

In order to turn things around, he will have to do something constructive. And the only way he knows how to win is by destroying everything.

[Midnight Writer]

7. I trust the polls. I don't necessarily trust our vote tallies.