Four scenarios on how we might develop immunity to Covid-19

[dalton99a]

https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/25/four-scenarios-on-how-we-might-develop-immunity-to-covid-19/

Four scenarios on how we might develop immunity to Covid-19
By Helen Branswell @HelenBranswell
August 25, 2020

“I don’t think we’ll be wearing masks in two to three years — for this virus,” said Vineet Menachery, a coronavirus researcher at the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston.

Menachery laid out four possible scenarios for how humans might interact with SARS-2 over time — in other words, what kind of immunity we might expect.

Some of the terms are of his own creation, so they may not be instantly recognizable to people who have studied immunology. They also cover a spectrum, and the lines between some of the scenarios can be blurry in spots. But they provide a useful discussion starter.

As Menachery sees it, the possibilities for the future when it comes to Covid-19 and human immunity break down as follows: sterilizing immunity, functional immunity, waning immunity, and lost immunity.

[soothsayer]

1. It's obvious drumpf is going for herd immunity

That’s why no attempt to contain it, and admiration for Sweden.

[lark]

2. Nah that would require thinking of others and he doesn't do that.

He just engages in magical thinking where everything he does is perfect and which includes zero scientific facts.

[genxlib]

3. That was a very interesting article

Thank you for posting it.

[I_UndergroundPanther]

4. Very good article

And informative,thanks for posting it here.

[LisaL]

5. After reading this, I am not counting on not wearing a mask any time soon.

Seems like the only accurate answer right now is that "we don't know." This guy in Hong Kong was reinfected and didn't show symptoms the second time. Recently I read about a woman in US who was possibly reinfected (she tested positive for covid a second time, also about 4 months later), and her second covid infection was worse than the first (she ended up in the hospital the second time).

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

6. Very interesting.

It lays out clearly and carefully the hypothesis for at least temporary immunity to the virus.

However, this is not going to be over soon. We will be still wearing masks two or three years down the road. Or at least those of us who fully understand the risks will be. Unless a very effective and safe vaccine has actually been produced and distributed.