A new election forecast gives Democrats hope for 2022
Conventional wisdom -- and history -- points to a disappointing 2022 at the ballot box for Democrats.
The first midterm election of a newly elected president is almost always bad news for their party in Congress. Republicans lost 40 seats in the House in 2018, while Democrats dropped 62 seats in 2010.
In fact, the president's party has lost, on average, nearly 28 House seats and more than three Senate seats in the 19 midterm elections between 1946 and 2018.
Those numbers come courtesy of Emory University political science professor Alan Abramowitz, who came out with his first 2022 election forecast on Thursday.
And while history doesn't look great for Democrats' chances of holding onto their narrow majorities in the House and Senate, Abramowitz's model suggest that all is not lost for the Party -- by a long shot.
"A model using the generic ballot and seat exposure shows that a single digit lead on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the Senate," he writes. "Given the expected impact of redistricting, however, Democrats probably need a larger lead to keep control of the House."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/a-new-election-forecast-gives-democrats-hope-for-2022/ar-AAKVjNu
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