If Conservatives Take Down Roe v. Wade, They Could Go Down With It

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

Matt Lewis

Forget everything you know about American politics, including all the conventional wisdom about the 2022 midterms. Forget all the variables like candidate recruitment, the economic recovery, inflation, crime, or even Joe Biden’s accomplishments between now and then. And forget all the historical precedent regarding how the president’s party always loses seats in the midterms. There’s a good chance it will all be blown away in the form of a huge thunderbolt that hits next summer.

It’s been a month since we learned that the Supreme Court will take up a case that could result in weakening—or even reversing—Roe v. Wade, the 1973 precedent that legalized abortion; it’s clear that the general public has not fully comprehended (a) the likelihood this will happen, (b) the timeframe, or (c) the political ramifications. I know this is true because I was shocked recently to discover that some of my smarter and better-connected conservative friends are increasingly hopeful Roe will be reversed. This simultaneously pleased and, I must confess, frightened me.

That’s because the media outrage and potential political backlash could be explosive, and this could turn out to be not exactly a pyrrhic victory for opponents of abortion but certainly one that inflicts more damage than they currently seem to be anticipating.

Let’s start with the likelihood of Roe crumbling or collapsing, which I believe to be much greater than generally appreciated. The test case will be a Mississippi law that bans abortion after 15 weeks that was blocked by an appeals court that found it was at odds with Roe. Why does the high court’s decision to take this case portend that something big could be coming? It takes four justices to agree to take on such a case, and it seems unlikely that conservatives on the bench (who now hold a clear majority) would take it up if their decision would undermine the conservative cause.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/conservatives-down-roe-v-wade-043715904.html

[wryter2000]

1. They need abortion to whip up their masses

Imagine if they lose it as a campaign issue.

[rownesheck]

4. I've thought that too.

But they could still use it as an issue if overturned because they could say, "vote for us or abortion will be legal again".

[PortTack]

2. I for am afraid roe is in real trouble

I did read that SCOTUS is influenced by public opinion...didn’t know that. There has been a lot of push back, but not sure the last 3 conservative creeps will care what the public says.

[ProudMNDemocrat]

3. The fight to overturn Roe is NOT a Constitutional issue, but a Religious one.

Conservatives want to see Roe v. Wade overturned because it violates their core religious beliefs. They are not personally damaged or harmed by a woman's right to choose if they never had been in the position to need an abortion. They want to inflict their religious views on others to prevent abortions from taking place.

For if the Supreme Court does overturn that which has been considered "settled law" for 48 years, they will say Religious positions take precedence over what is Constitutional . That would be dangerous in and of itself in revisiting other settled cases regarding LGBTQ rights, Civil rights, desegregation of chools, etc.

[TreasonousBastard]

6. Of course. But it opens another thread of thought...

Racial or sexual discrimination does not affect me either, but I support efforts to ban them because they are essentially immoral. They also have deleterious effects on society in general.

So, while religious arguments have dominated their discussion, there are still secular arguments over when life begins. Or the definition of human life itself.

Even if they win this round, the fight is not over.

[Lulu Latech]

9. The argument needs reframing towards bodily autonomy.

If the state can control anyones body with the "right to life" argument then we are on a slippery slope towards mandetory enrollment and participation in bone marrow registery and blood donation. After all...if all life is precious...all Americans should be required to give their blood, bone marrow and other organs not needed to support their own life to save the life of another. Like taxes, blood donation should be mandatory.

[WHITT]

5. I've Been Saying For A While

that Speaker Pelosi should bring up and pass legislation expanding the SCOTUS to 13 justices. Obviously it would go nowhere in the Senate, but it would be a shot across the bow of the RightWingers on the bench: YOU CAN BE TAKEN DOWN.

[Scrivener7]

7. Not if they lock up all the state election apparatuses.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

8. I'm not entirely sure it would be as harmful to the Cons cause as it's being assumed

And here's why ... in the years of the leadup to when Roe was decided, it was in a backdrop of the Sexual Revolution, and it was right when the HUGE mass of Baby Boomers were coming of age.

Young folks made up a larger % of the public than any time prior, or since. And those kids were more politicly united than young people are today, in part cause of the abortion fight, but also because they had the backdrop of Civil Rights and Vietnam protests uniting them. They were generally more politically motivated and aware vs. the younger people of today, with their heads stuck in their phones.

Also keep in mind the Roe being overturned would 'only' result in some states banning the practice, it would not ban abortion in the USA overall.

Lastly, kids these days have been raised in the backdrop of 30+ years of pro-condom messaging, dating back to the initial HIV crisis. A hell of a lot of them will shrug and go 'you're supposed to be using condoms anyways!'. They also don't feel any connection to the fight that led to Roe. It's just seniors (or near-seniors) that even remember it.

What I'm getting at is ... I fear that in todays climate, with its much older overall demographics, and the fact that young people now are more diverse, and the lack of other unifying causes as a backdrop as was the case in the 60's/early 70's ... that the political blowback could sadly be somewhat mild.

I mean ... do you foresee big protests in the streets over it being overturned?

Cause I don't.

And I don't expect the protests at the ballot box to be much different. In no small part because the people who will really be mad about it happening ... already would never vote GOP.

[brush]

10. Republicans have no idea how badly they've calculated how...

women will react if Rowe v Wade is overturned. They're playing with fire and ruinous election losses.

[mopinko]

11. they'd be toast in the suburbs for a generation.

it wont go down real well in methland, either.

[3Hotdogs]

12. Jesus's voters were ginned up by anti-gay and abortion issues.

They lost the gay argument in the court. Settle and take away Roe? That leaves B.L.M. as the only reason to put down your Bud or Southern Comfort and go vote.