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riversedge

(70,306 posts)
Tue Aug 17, 2021, 08:32 AM Aug 2021

Ron DeSantis May Have Already Delivered the House to Republicans in 2022

This article is depressing. It also reminds me of WI--which is severely gerrymandered since the Scott Walker years and has a majority of RW Sup. Court people on it. Legislature controlled by Repugs even when there are more Dem votes in districts. Gerrymandering wins out last decade and probably next decade.

And Rep Ron Kind will not seek re-election. damn. The repug oppo is a guy who lost by not much and is loaded now with outside money [maybe that is why Kind decided the run was not worth it. damn again]







Ron DeSantis May Have Already Delivered the House to Republicans in 2022


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ron-desantis-may-have-already-delivered-the-house-to-republicans-in-2022/ar-AANo7Ug?ocid=winp1taskbar


Mark Joseph Stern - Yesterday 1:59 PM
301 Comments



The fight for control over the House of Representatives is already a nightmare for the Democratic Party. Currently, Democrats hold a mere five-seat majority in the chamber, and Republican-controlled state legislatures are preparing to draw new gerrymanders that will entrench GOP power for a decade.
But not all hope is lost. The 2020 census produced surprisingly decent results for Democrats, adding just a handful of new House seats to red states and tracking massive demographic decline in many Republican regions. As usual at the outset of a new decade, the battle for the House will likely come down to redistricting. And the redistricting process in just one state, Florida, may make or break Democrats’ majority.

In theory, Democrats should face a relatively level playing field in Florida. Although the state Legislature is dominated by the Republicans, voters passed two constitutional amendments in 2010 that prohibit partisan gerrymandering of legislative and congressional districts. So, while the U.S. Supreme Court declined to curb this practice, Florida courts remain empowered to police redistricting under their state constitution. During the last decade, Republican lawmakers egregiously violated the “fair district” amendments—leading the Florida Supreme Court to shoot down their maps. This time, however, that court looks very different: The progressive majority of last decade has departed, replaced by an ultraconservative 6–1 supermajority. This new bloc has repeatedly disregarded precedents, laws, and constitutional commands that conflict with its political agenda. There is, therefore, good reason for Democrats to fear that it will refuse to enforce the anti-gerrymandering amendments, allowing Republicans to draw themselves enough congressional districts to win the House.


The saga of Florida’s last redistricting cycle is sordid and, at this point, unsurprising. Despite GOP opposition, voters overwhelmingly passed the fair district amendments in 2010, barring lawmakers from drawing districts “to favor or disfavor an incumbent or political party.” Republican lawmakers paid lip service to the new rules, holding public hearings and feigning a nonpartisan process. All the while, these lawmakers were secretly colluding with GOP operatives, allowing them to manipulate district lines behind closed doors. These operatives even wrote scripts for ostensibly ordinary citizens to read at hearings.

When voting rights advocates sued, the operatives tried to conceal evidence of this collusion, but the Florida Supreme Court forced them to turn over the incriminating documents. Republican lawmakers destroyed many of their own communications with the operatives, but the remaining evidence still demonstrated that legislators’ staff regularly sent draft maps to operatives—apparently for their approval. Circuit Court Judge Terry Lewis eventually ruled that these efforts “made a mockery of the Legislature’s proclaimed transparent and open process of redistricting” and amounted to “a conspiracy to influence and manipulate the Legislature into a violation of its constitutional duty.” The Florida Supreme Court affirmed that conclusion and struck down eight gerrymandered congressional districts, forcing major revisions to the map and substantially more competitive elections.

This redistricting story has a happy ending; the next one almost certainly won’t. The only reason we have evidence of Republicans’ “conspiracy” is because the Florida Supreme Court rejected their efforts to shield compromising communications with a claim of privilege. This decision split 5–2, with both conservative justices dissenting. And the only reason the state got a fairer congressional map is because the Florida Supreme Court vigorously enforced the fair district amendments. This decision, too, split 5–2, with both conservative justices dissenting. Since those rulings, all but one member of the progressive majority have stepped down, replaced by far-right justices. Floridians should expect this new conservative majority to effectively repeal the fair district amendments by judicial fiat and hand total control over redistricting to Republican legislators.................................................................

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Ron DeSantis May Have Already Delivered the House to Republicans in 2022 (Original Post) riversedge Aug 2021 OP
Why can't gerrymandering be successfully challenged in court? no_hypocrisy Aug 2021 #1
Congress rso Aug 2021 #2
Lived in WI and fought against the gerrymandering... Bluethroughu Aug 2021 #3
The rate republicans are going with COVID . .. Lovie777 Aug 2021 #4
I'm unsure about this moose65 Aug 2021 #5
I posted this on DU the other day in response to a gerrymandering issue: in2herbs Aug 2021 #6

rso

(2,273 posts)
2. Congress
Tue Aug 17, 2021, 08:37 AM
Aug 2021

On the other hand, NY State redistricting can add 4 or 5 seats to democrats, and Illinois can add a couple as well. Two can play this game.

Bluethroughu

(5,201 posts)
3. Lived in WI and fought against the gerrymandering...
Tue Aug 17, 2021, 08:41 AM
Aug 2021

The Kochs might have lost a presidential election, but they bought a Congress through gerrymandering.

We need reform to stop this erosion of Democracy by these haters.

moose65

(3,168 posts)
5. I'm unsure about this
Tue Aug 17, 2021, 09:38 AM
Aug 2021

Of course, Republicans are assholes who will try anything, but even they can't get around the fact that most population growth happened in urban areas, and there just might not be enough rural territory much longer to dilute the strength of cities. I have no doubt that they will try to gerrymander the best they can, but could they really find 5 extra districts in Florida alone? That's a tall order.

In New York, California, and Illinois, the population growth happened in cities, so it's likely that some less-urban Republican seats will fall. West Virginia will definitely lose a Republican seat, since all of their current ones are Republican. We may pick up new Dem seats in Colorado and Oregon. Here in NC, the Republicans have outlined how they plan to do the re-districting. Our growth also happened in urban areas, and even though I don't trust Republicans at all, I am cautiously optimistic.

Plus, some of those seats that Trump helped carry may be competitive again without him on the ballot. We shall see!

in2herbs

(2,947 posts)
6. I posted this on DU the other day in response to a gerrymandering issue:
Tue Aug 17, 2021, 10:59 AM
Aug 2021

There is a redistricting map that can be downloaded to your phone so you can see not only how the Rs have gerrymandered districts and how they are intentionally racially bias, but you can "redistrict" your own state to represent more equal representation. The article admitted that the Rs will likely get the gerrymandering that they are seeking but the purpose of these redistricting maps will support legal challenges to whatever they gerrymander as they can prove the discrimination. The original map was developed by a tech in Silicon Valley and the maps are free.

There are several variations of these maps. The article also stated that the Rs should be afraid because, due to these maps, gerrymandering will be a thing of the past. The USSC will have the final say on redistricting and so I still don't hold a lot of hope UNLESS Biden gets his court reformation in place and these kinds of issues will go before this new court.

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