COVID-19 breakthrough data triggers common statistical mistake, researcher says

[BootinUp]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/covid-19-breakthrough-data-triggers-common-statistical-mistake-researcher-says/ar-AAOePqC?ocid=msedgntp

A breakthrough case is when an individual tests positive for COVID-19 after they've been fully vaccinated against the disease. However, NewsCenter 5's David Bienick says looking at the numbers can trigger a common mistake among many people.

Researcher Sam Scarpino with the Rockefeller Institute and Northeastern University said it's best to use an analogy to explain why.
Scarpino says to take a football team with 20 players. During its first season, ten players wear helmets on the field and ten do not. At the end of the season, two of the helmeted players have had head injuries and six of the unhelmeted players do.

The following season, the coach has all 20 players wear helmets, but four of them still get head injuries. Since helmeted injuries went up from two to four, did helmet effectiveness go down?

Scarpino said the answer is no. "Actually, the total number of injuries went down as a result," Scarpino said. "Even though the helmeted number went up when you got helmets on everybody." In the example created, total injuries dropped to four compared to eight when half the team was unhelmeted. The statistical trap is called the base rate fallacy.

more at the link

[qazplm135]

1. problem with this argument

is that helmeted folks can't transfer concussions to unhelmeted folks or vice versa.
Covid can transfer and it can mutate into something worse.

Yes, when I got breakthrough COVID, and my girlfriend got breakthrough COVID, it wasn't hospital worthy.
Now my other friend, her mom and grandmom all also got breakthrough COVID and her symptoms are just shy of hospital worthy.

But because of the unvaccinated, all of us plus them can or could have passed COVID on to someone else, where it can percolate.

The problem remains the unvaccinated who are increasing the risk of more mutations.

[BootinUp]

2. Yes, but If someone who is unvaccinated, looks at breakthrough numbers

as an excuse to not get it, this might help persuade.

[OAITW r.2.0]

3. They are fooling themselves.

Risk is on the unvaccinated. You risk dying. vax'd folks risks a week of discomfort.

[BootinUp]

4. I have no words anymore for them, except menace. Menace to society. nt

[qazplm135]

5. I doubt it

I think they are against it because they don't trust experts, they don't trust the system, not because of a misunderstanding about statistics.

[BootinUp]

6. lol. Yeah that was BS.

i appreciated it the article though.

[qazplm135]

7. that's the sad truth

the folks who understand it, don't need it to understand.

[lagomorph777]

8. We had a lot of that going on at DU for a while.

Had to fight it pretty hard. Easy to see how it could be even more damaging among the general public or MAGATS.