What's the worst that could happen?

[Uncle Joe]

(snip)

Five stories about the future of our climate, explained

Read between the many lines of the nearly 4,000-page IPCC report and you will see that it actually tells five different stories about the future, complete with their own little narratives.

Here’s the backdrop for these stories: The planet is undergoing a massive, uncontrolled experiment, rapidly revealing what happens when 2.6 million pounds of carbon dioxide per second (and still rising) are added to the atmosphere. All of humanity is participating in this experiment, whether directly contributing to it or feeling its impacts.

But it’s an immensely frustrating experiment because the subjects (all of us) are constantly messing with the controls. How much more Earth will warm up in the coming century hinges on what people will do. And what people are doing is changing.

It’s increasingly clear that many of the factors that helped bring the world to the current point will not persist into the future — unchecked population growth, a massive surge in coal mining, too few clean energy options. With the 2015 Paris climate agreement, countries agreed in principle to limit warming this century to less than 2°C, with an additional target of staying below 1.5°C. These goalposts didn’t exist when the IPCC put out its last comprehensive report in 2013.

(snip)


https://www.vox.com/22620706/climate-change-ipcc-report-2021-ssp-scenario-future-warming

[MLAA]

1. Based on the extreme weather disasters we are already experiencing whether floods

or droughts I am not hopeful. I am usually the first to see the glass half full this time I see it draining quicker than most expect.

[2naSalit]

2. Same here.

Last edited Sun Sep 12, 2021, 10:47 PM - Edit history (1)

It's in my face right now. People have this idyllic mental picture of what the Rocky Mountains is like... Cool, lots of forests and rivers and wildlife and rivers and vast expanses of territory where there's nobody. None of that is true but they are migrating here in droves further stressing an already stressed to the max ecosystem. Vacationers decide they have to live here and here they come. This fragile ecosystem has been showing signs of decline for a while now, I expect it will crash within five years, probably sooner, as the inevitable megafires ignite over here.

I'm going elsewhere myself, but it's not where most would think is a good place but I think it will for me, I don't expect to last all that long into the future for whatever reasons, I don't think I'll get a lot older than I am. I feel kind of comforted by that.

[MLAA]

4. I live in a desert so I expect to face even higher temps and drought.

If you’ve found a nice place to move, hurray! Just send me a direct message on where it is and I just might have to move there as well

[Ford_Prefect]

3. At the rates some things are changing many of us will not see the later part of this century.

If the temperature and food cycle of the oceans gets much worse the rest will be academic. If the major crop areas of the north central US remain as dry as they have been grain and other crops will fall off precipitously. The dust bowl years will seem like a modest proposal in comparison.

If the Colorado river basin doesn't receive dramatically more precipitation millions of Americans across the Southwest and in California who depend on it for drinking water, irrigation and hydro-electric power will have to move or die. The loss of hydropower is almost as consequential as the water is.

I personally don't want them to decide we have more water here than they do since we already have far too many outsiders moving here every day to escape COVID, Wildfires, and Hurricanes.

They may avoid the weather but COVID will find you anywhere there are willing hosts. Montana is only 50% vaccinated at best and Idaho is right next door with far fewer vaxed. Hospitals in Montana and surrounding states are full to the point where other cases are sent home or elsewhere (a rapidly diminishing option).

We only have the snow pack for summer water here in the Bitterroot so a dry winter is rather bad news. Forest fires have been bad in all the western states this year along with the attendant smoke plumes. Even in a "good" fire year the smoke from elsewhere makes it dangerous to go outside and can last for weeks at a time. The central and eastern parts of Montana are in a long term drought that is expected to get worse.

So please find another place to move to. We've hardly got enough here as it is and a dry winter coming on.

The Earth may find balance at some point what with some of the more egregious features of our recent industrial past beginning to moderate. In the meantime we still have to survive the degrees of change already upon us.