BTRTN: Our Annual Analytically-Based Major League Baseball Hall of Fame Predictions

[reggieandlee]

Born To Run The Numbers, known for its highly analytic and accurate election forecasting, annually turns its quantitative rigor to the question of who will -- and, separately, who should -- be elected to the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame. The site provides a transparent view into its methodology, an objective assessment of the accuracy of its past projections, and climaxes with its bold and comprehensive projections and commentary about the current field of candidates for the Hall of Fame, position by position.

If you are into baseball, numbers, or just need a welcome break from the nauseating polarization of our politics, you will enjoy:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/12/btrtn-our-annual-analytically-based.html

Excerpts: "As for the ballot itself, this year marks both the beginning and the end of two major performance-enhancing-drug (PED) tainted players on the ballot. This is the non-gift that keep on taking, deflecting attention from worthy players who played fair between the lines. Whatever happens this year, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Sammy Sosa will be off the ballot next year, having either been elected or termed-out of the 10-year ballot limit. But Alex Rodriguez, who was suspended for the 2014 season for violating MLB’s drug policy and collective bargaining agreement, and David Ortiz, whose name was alleged to have appeared on a list of players who tested positive during 2003 survey testing, are both on the ballot for the first time – and I doubt the last...
"We rather immodestly bill ourselves as 'The Best MLB Hall of Fame Predictors' (we may well be the only ones), and while last year was not our best year, we did reasonably well, as you can see by the chart below...
"On to this year! And here is our most important prediction..."

[malthaussen]

1. It's an interesting analysis that forgets one thing:

... HOF election is not dependent on stats.

I agree with his analysis anyway, since I happen to be a stats geek too.

-- Mal

[jmowreader]

2. I slightly suspect we won't see another enshrinement until 2025

That’s the year Ichiro Suzuki becomes eligible. I believe Ichiro will become the second unanimous inductee…great numbers, first Japanese position player in MLB, played clean… and come on, is there a baseball fan who doesn’t like him? He’s also eligible for the Ugly Suit Hall of Fame.