Democrats' most alarming problem

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Yahoo Finance

Democrats’ most alarming problem

Rick Newman · Senior Columnist
Tue, January 4, 2022, 11:55 AM

Democrats are likely to lose control of one or both houses of Congress in this year’s midterm elections. But they may face an even bigger danger: A steady flow of Americans out of traditional blue states on the coasts and in the upper Midwest into red states mostly in the South.

New Census data analyzed by the American Enterprise Institute shows that eight of the 10 states losing the most residents from April 2020 through June 2021 have Democratic leadership, while nine of the 10 states gaining the most new residents have Republican governors. The numbers measure net domestic migration, which is the net change in the number of people moving in or out of one state, from or to another. That isolates people choosing to move, whereas population growth alone would also include births and deaths.

{snip interactive bar chart}

The five states with the most outbound domestic migration are California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts and New Jersey. The five states gaining the most movers are Florida, Texas, Arizona, North Carolina and South Carolina. Massachusetts counts as a red state, since it has a moderate Republican governor, even though Democrats control the state legislature and Joe Biden won the state in 2020. North Carolina counts as a blue state because of its Democratic governor, even though Republicans control the state legislature and the state went for Donald Trump in 2020. So the party split among migration gainers and losers is even more stark than the governorships suggest.

AEI analyzed several economic indicators to validate trends that have been in place for some time, and may be intensifying. Taxes and living costs are higher in blue states enduring a net outflow of people, and lower in red states gaining new residents. Among the top 10 states losing residents, the combined state and local tax burden averages 9.2% of income. In the 10 states gaining the most residents, the state and local tax burden averages 7.7%, a full point and a half lower.

{snip}

[Walleye]

1. I suddenly remembered Obama's speech at the 2004 convention

There are no red states or blue states there’s only the United States. Would that it were true

[Omnipresent]

2. The economy is improving.

Do we really need to mourn losses that may not happen 11 months from now?

[Budi]

3. AEI is The American Enterprise Institute. From your link.

American Enterprise Institute
Policy institute

The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, known simply as the American Enterprise Institute, is a right-leaning Washington, D.C.–based think tank that researches government, politics, economics, and social welfare


Just FYI.

RW Think Tank

[mahatmakanejeeves]

4. I am aware of that. Are their numbers wrong? NT

[Budi]

6. I wouldn't bother with numbers from a RW source as proving a point.

[SCantiGOP]

12. The numbers come from the US census

What the analysis doesn’t point out is that those blue state voters bring their politics with them.
SC is the fifth top state for gaining residents. They don’t move to the rural areas. That is how a Democrat won the district around Charleston in 2018 for the first time in 20 years.
Arizona, NC, GA are examples of states with population in-migration that are getting bluer because of those new residents.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

13. Once again, that's a good point.

And yes, the numbers are from the Census Bureau. The analysis of those number is via the AEI. They "might" be overlooking what you said.

Thanks.

[TheRealNorth]

7. Well. They are Trump-humpers

So I don't really trust them.

[Budi]

9. Looking forward to their article on "Republican's most alarming problem"

Charts, white boards & numbers

[TheRealNorth]

5. And the last paragraph is why AEI puts out this shit....

They are a Minnesota outfit trying to lower taxes and impose right-to-work laws. So that data and conclusions are suspect in my mind to begin with. I would love to see a breakdown by age, because my bet is that with the exception of California, it's people of retirement age that accounts for much of the migration. And the reason I hear from young people for moving South is that they don't like the cold weather.

In the case of California, I think the housing issue is the biggest problem- there just isn't enough housing to go around for everyone (and the fact that housing is going to be more expensive to begin with because it needs to be able to weather earthquakes).

[Budi]

8. K & R

[PortTack]

10. Ppl moving from blue states to red take their politics with them. Best example is CA residents to AZ

Started a decade ago..look at AZ now. This is the very reason GA is purple turning blue and ppl like Beto are encouraged about TX finally flipping

It’s not a bad thing

[mahatmakanejeeves]

11. That's a good point. Thanks. NT

[PortTack]

16. 👍👍👍

[TheRealNorth]

17. But when it comes to baby boomers retiring to FL

Most that I know of are MAGATS. The under 50 that I know are more of a 50-50 split.

[lees1975]

14. So tired of being a year out from Mid-term elections and having an internet pseudo news source say

Democrats stand to lose control of the house.

Yahoo just borrows stories from other sources. Here are a few facts:

Californians make up the lion's share of new residents in Nevada and Arizona over the past I0 years according to the census, along with an increase in the Latino population. A majority of those new residents reflect the political culture of the places from which they came, resulting in both Arizona and Nevada being carried by Biden, the flip of a Nevada senate seat in 20I8 and two seats in Arizona.

People from the blue states of the northeast account for the majority of new residents in Georgia and North Carolina, and in 2020, Georgia flipped, with Biden carrying the state and the dumping of two Republicans in favor of two Democrats. The margins in North Carolina have flipped the governor's office, and narrowed the GOP lead in the state legislature, and picked up a couple of congressional seats. Another four years of growth, and the very narrow, small margin that Republicans won with in 2020 will evaporate. I predict North Carolina goes blue in 2022.

Illinois is losing a congressional seat, so when the legislature redrew the lines, the seat that disappeared is held by a Republican and the district was dissolved into three overwhelmingly Democratic districts. Another adjustment to even up the population, will place a Democratic majority in another marginally Republican district, so the GOP will lose a net two seats in Illinois. In Pennsylvania in 20I8, the Democrats gained five seats and held the five they had because the line drawing was taken out of GOP hands and placed in the hands of an independent commission, whose lines ran along geographic and political boundaries. California's adjustments to even out the populations in their districts, may eliminate as many as five GOP seats.

I don't like the tone of this article. We are far, far away from concluding that the Democrats will lose the house in 2022.

[heckles65]

15. It's concerning but

obviously the Republicans don't think Texas and Florida, for two, are destined to go from being big red states to even bigger red states, or the legislatures there wouldn't be frantically passing "voter integrity" laws.

People from the Northeast states and California move to Austin, Tampa-St. Pete, Orlando etc. etc. Very few move to Goatsbreath County.

[HariSeldon]

18. This is like people concerned about the USA's trade deficit

If I said: "Why don't you give me that nice shiny/useful/tasty/nutritious, physical thing, and I'll give this nice piece of paper whose value can vary according to my priorities?" and my buddy Bob said: "Sure, that sounds like a swell deal!", you would call Bob a lunatic. The situation I just described is what the US trade deficit amounts to at an international scale. Of course, the safest thing Bob can do is trade that paper away as fast as he can for something with more value stability -- often real estate. Of course, real estate is just another kind of paper saying Bob owns some land.

So if the USA has a trade deficit with China, they are sending us more physical stuff, and we are sending them more paper. If they trade that paper for other paper saying they own land...well it's up to governments within the United States to enforce their rights of ownership, and there are circumstances under which our government might choose not to do so. It's really a huge scam. We should, I suppose, be cheering the trade deficit, not trying to reduce it.