Putin Loves to Roll the Dice. Ukraine Is His Biggest Gamble Yet.
(by Yaroslav Trofimov who, IMHO is the best foreign affairs analyst)
(snip)
In 1989, the Soviet state to whose cause Mr. Putin dedicated himself ceased to exist—an event that he has repeatedly described as the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century. Moscow lost 48.5% of the Soviet Union’s population, including tens of millions of Russian speakers stranded beyond truncated borders, and 41% of its GDP. Crucially, Russia also forfeited its cherished status as a global power and America’s strategic peer. Mr. Putin, in power since 1999, now is taking the biggest risks of his career in an attempt to reclaim Russia’s lost glory and redeem the perceived slights of the past. His moves threaten to spark a ground war unlike any seen in Europe since the 1940s as he seeks to rewrite the continent’s security arrangements and undo, at least in part, Russia’s defeat in the Cold War.
(snip)
To many in Russia’s establishment, Mr. Putin’s appetite for risk is only natural given the intensity of Russia’s historic grievances he has been fanning throughout his career to justify an increasingly militarized and authoritarian regime. “In the 1990s, Russia was considered a written-off country that will never rise again, that should no longer be taken into account. We all have lived through this feeling of humiliation and injustice. And when we feel injustice, pragmatic considerations begin to fade away,” said prominent Russian lawmaker Konstantin Zatulin, the Duma’s deputy head of the committee on relations with former Soviet states. “Putin enjoys the backing that he has because that’s something deeply felt in Russia even though people always have lots of complaints about authorities.”
(snip)
The relative lack of consequences for previous actions may have emboldened Mr. Putin to keep raising the stakes. After all, he invaded Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014, annexed Crimea the same year, and ordered alleged assassination plots abroad, such as the 2018 Novichok affair in England, with only limited Western sanctions. While stunting Russia’s economic growth, these measures didn’t undermine Mr. Putin’s hold on power or his ability to develop increasingly advanced military capabilities. With over $630 billion in accumulated reserves, an all-time high, the country has enough of a financial cushion to withstand immediate pressure.
(snip)
Ukraine, which has sought to sever this interdependence with Russia ever since the 2014 military invasion, plays an outsize role in the current confrontation because, in Mr. Putin’s eyes, it isn’t really a foreign land. It’s the loss of Ukraine, which was the second-most-populous and most-industrially advanced former Soviet republic, that lies at the root of Moscow’s dramatically diminished global standing. In an article published in July 2021 and sent to every member of the Russian armed forces, Mr. Putin argued that only hostile Western intrigues have separated the two nations. “Russians and Ukrainians are one people, a single whole,” he wrote. “I see the wall that has emerged in recent years between Russia and Ukraine, between parts of the same historical and spiritual space, as a common calamity and tragedy.”
(snip)
So when in 2004 NATO granted membership to Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia, it was a turning point for the Russian president, who has repeatedly complained that this enlargement violated promises made by the West at the end of the Cold War. American officials deny making such binding commitments... Mr. Putin’s speech at an international conference in Munich in February 2007 signaled Russia’s determination to start hitting back. The United States, he complained, “has overstepped its national borders in every way,” and the NATO expansion was “a serious provocation that reduces everyone’s trust.” Russia’s takeaway, he added, was that now “we must think about ensuring our own security.”
More..
https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-russia-ukraine-soviet-11642693621?mod=Searchresults_pos13&page=1
= new reply since forum marked as read
and here, I am afraid, there is no appetite for another war. Even the Rs, traditional anti Russia and love wars will demure because they don't like the current commander in chief.
