BBC - Ukraine: Is Russia's invasion going as expected?

[BlueWavePsych]

Russia also hasn't used its artillery and air strikes as intensively as expected. But Mr Arnold adds: "A key point is that they are facing very stiff Ukrainian resistance, which I don't think they expected."

Urban warfare often gives the defender the advantage. Attacking forces will find it harder to manoeuvre from street to street, where buildings become defensive positions. Civilians, too, can become part of the resistance and potential targets. Urban warfare if the most difficult and bloody for any advancing army and requires more forces.

If they can capture Kiev and the rest of the country, then Mr Arnold suggests there may be little advantage in pushing further west. President Putin may hope that after his forces have captured the capital and defeated Ukraine's army, the resistance will crumble.

He says that, while there is an element of the population that cleaves to Russia in the east, any Russian-installed government would struggle to rule by consent a population of some 40 million.

Gen Barrons believes that while Russia has the forces in place to defeat Ukraine's army eventually, that could be replaced by a "very resilient insurgency". Any expectation by President Putin that he can control the entire country, he says, "may be a major miscalculation".

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60539113



Given fog of war, this article gives a rather candid assessment. Regardless, it is very clear that the Ukrainians were underestimated.

[underpants]

1. I've been surprised by the lack of artillery and missile attacks

Thankfully.
Putin and his Generals must have wanted to take the place as intact as possible.
Russians generally love artillery but they’ve held off so far.

I’m worried he levels the place if things turn really bad. They are running out of their window of advantage. They don’t have the force size to occupy 4 large cities and they could start getting picked apart.

[msongs]

2. one suspects they were expecting a quick collapse so held back nt

[BlueWavePsych]

3. Rubble creates more urban defences akin to Stalingrad in 1942

[Igel]

4. Tell that to Groznyi.

One of the Donetsk NR's leaders, only on (he may have been replaced), published an article about the Groznyi assault. Something on the order that it's better for 1000 civilians to be killed than a Russian soldier.

Don't ever recall a Russian politician dissing Strel'tsov (I think that was a pseudonym).

Remembering such niceties helps to understand the underlying mindset. Then again, these were Chechens that were being bombed, not "little brother" being screwed.

[BlueWavePsych]

5. Rubbling Buildings

Urban defenders must shape the terrain to facilitate their obstacles, engagement areas, ambushes, and battle positions. The sheer amount of military grade fortification material (e.g., concrete) gives an urban defender a great advantage. Some of the main goals of an urban defense are to funnel attacking forces into engagement areas, canalize them down a small number of avenues of approach, and constrain their ability to maneuver and mass forces. A method to accomplish this—and it is understood to be controversial, given the amount of destruction it generates—is to create rubble by destroying structures to produce broken concrete, rebar, stones, bricks, or solid material to include debris. Rubbled buildings can occur in urban warfare from an attacker’s preparatory fires (aerial bombing, artillery, and mortars) but they can also be created purposely by defenders to block avenues of approach by partially or completely destroying buildings using demolitions and fires or simply moving existing rubble.

From September to December 1943 Wehrmacht engineers in Ortona, Italy extensively rubbled the buildings to support the German defense of the city. They blew down corners of houses, entire houses, or even lines of houses to create rubble piles up to fifteen feet high, which were then liberally sown with mines and booby traps. This rubble blocked narrower, ox cart–width secondary streets to force the attacking Canadians down the main thoroughfare and into the main German defensive area. It also made it nearly impossible for supporting tanks to climb over the piles or maneuver to support the dismounted infantry and engineers, and even blocked Canadian observation down the roads.

https://mwi.usma.edu/defending-the-city-an-overview-of-defensive-tactics-from-the-modern-history-of-urban-warfare/