Is there a chance Ukraine wins? Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Wes Clark answers.

[elleng]

*USA TODAY Opinion asked Clark this week for his perspective on what's happening as Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine unfolds. His conversation with Editorial Board member Austin Bogues has been edited for length and clarity:

Q. What is Putin’s next move after it appears his initial efforts have been stymied to seize the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv?

A. He is going to bring in more forces. This far he has used “forward detachments” to probe Ukrainian defenses and attempt to coerce the government to surrender. It hasn’t worked. Now he is bringing his main force forward, along with Belorussian forces. He will probably intensify his air activity and use heavy artillery strikes.

Q. How will the war come to an end? Is there still a possibility of a diplomatic solution?

A. A diplomatic solution is unlikely. It could end with Kyiv overrun and a Ukrainian government in exile. Or it could end in a Russian withdrawal to face another operation. Or it could end with a Western and United Nations demand that Putin cannot ignore, due to sanctions and international pressure.

Q. What does the nuclear deterrence activation Putin issued Sunday mean in practical terms?

A. This was a means of pressuring Ukraine in possible negotiations and also a warning for the West not to intervene.

Q. Is there a chance the Ukrainians could win? What would that look like?

A. The Ukrainians could win if warm, wet weather and poor Russian logistics immobilize the Russian force and they have the means to attack and destroy that force. Ukraine could also win if the West and international efforts force Putin to withdraw.

Q. What are the chances the conflict escalates?

A. If Putin wins here, he will go after his next targets, Georgia and the Baltic states. This will bring escalation. At some point, if the fighting in Kyiv intensifies, the U.S. may have to intervene even if it risks escalation.'>>>

https://news.yahoo.com/chance-ukraine-wins-former-nato-070445307.html

[gab13by13]

1. Thanks for posting this,

the situation in Ukraine is not rosy as some believe.

We need to get weapons to Ukraine, now.

[Karadeniz]

2. I always enjoy his perspective !

[pandr32]

3. Russia must be stopped

As mentioned above Putin will continue to new targets. He wants a new world order.
We must assist Ukraine.

[Ray Bruns]

4. Appeasement only makes the aggressor more aggressive.

[Igel]

7. Yup.

In 2014 we said we had. Oops.

In 2005 (2006? Georgia War II) it was the same. S. Ossetia.

We overlooked Georgia War I, Abkhazia. Right next door to Sochi.

Transdnistria's just something nobody remembers. It *was* a Russian operation with the Russian military showing up and making threats. "Bother us, and something bad will happen somewhere. And it'll be *your* fault." Right.

[Tatertot]

5. Long term Ukrainian outcome if Russia persists

Current gov pushed to western Ukraine, into exile in Poland, or dead. Puppet government installed. Current Ukrainian military goes underground and battles Russians and puppet government …. Classic insurgency. Russians can decapitate the current government with 200,000 troops but they can’t win the hearts and minds of the population and they can’t maintain control. A well funded insurgency can kill off the puppet government with 200,000 too.

Russia walked into a quagmire.

[lagomorph777]

6. He lays out what we must do to win.

[sabbat hunter]

8. Best that Ukraine can hope for

is that they manage to stalemate Russia, and the sanctions force Russia to pull out.

If Putin is an idiot, he will expand to the Baltic states. They are NATO member countries. That would bring Nato in to the war.