Biden's Bold Gamble Might Just Save Ukraine Opinion

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

The Ukraine War is only a week old, so it's far too soon to make any judgements about its outcome. One thing is clear, though: Russian President Vladimir Putin badly miscalculated. He is facing two tactical surprises at the moment that may prove to have dire consequences.

Putin was clearly not prepared for the fight that the Ukrainians have put up to his invading forces. It's the only explanation for the logistical failures and enormous reported losses (even discounting for the obvious exaggerations): The Russian Army expected to meet a Ukrainian opposition similar to what it saw in Donbas in 2015 or even in Crimea in 2014.

But the Ukrainians have spent the past eight years learning the lessons of those earlier defeats. They have built a diplomatic network of support they didn't have a decade ago, and they have purchased arms and developed tactics to make the most of the weapons they have been able to obtain.

Which leads me to the second surprise Putin is facing, namely, the intensity of global sanctions against Russia. He no doubt expected some Western actions, but nothing like the rapid cutoff of Russia from banking, trade and aviation that took place in the past week.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/bidens-bold-gamble-might-just-save-ukraine-opinion/ar-AAUCzCJ

[hippywife]

1. The important part:

And this was all made possible by a bold decision of the Biden administration to share intelligence information regarding Russian invasion plans with the world—repeatedly, in detail, and over a sustained three-month long period beginning last November.

It's hard to exaggerate just how unprecedented and risky this decision was, and impossible to overstate its impact on the course of events. Already in November, intelligence officials were sharing with the media serious concerns about Russian war plans. These were not couched in equivocal language about "doubts" or "mobilizations" or "operations" or "possibilities." On the contrary, big words like "invasion" were freely bandied about in background briefings, then by senior officials like Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the President himself.

snip

So Biden amped things up. Beginning in January, the Biden administration started sharing specific intelligence warnings that the Russians would seek to engineer some sort of provocation in the Donbas region that would result in a firefight between Russian and Ukrainian forces. A danger to ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine would serve as a pretext for violating the lines of control from 2015 and pushing Russian forces into Ukraine and beyond those lines, at least to the internal Ukrainian boundaries for Luhansk and Donetsk. As Ukrainian forces would not doubt react, this then would be the casus belli for a full-scale assault on Ukraine as a whole.

[quakerboy]

11. And a choice which could so easily have gone wrong

All Putin had to do was.. not invade just yet, to make western intelligence and Biden look at least a little silly.

But he was so confident that his ownership of trump and republicans and British conservatives, etc would hold and carry the day for him.

[BlueWavePsych]

2. K&R

[Igel]

3. Or ...

[PortTack]

4. GREAT!! Perfect gif

[Sogo]

5. According to reports on The Last Word last night,

all of the current sanctions are a slap on the wrist compared to what it would be if the world cut off Russia's oil. They are the third (maybe second) largest oil exporter and can get by on the income from that alone. So if we really want to kneecap them, we have to cut off their oil....(my summary, FWIW, of what was reported on that show last night).

[Lonestarblue]

6. I agree.

We need to stop punishing Venezuela and remove sanctions on their oil. We should also offer to remove sanctions on Iran’s oil immediately if they join the new nuclear agreement. Talk to the Saudis about increasing production. Then cut off Russian oil purchases. Putin needs to be stopped now and that’s one of the quickest ways to hurt him. I’m sure he and his oligarchs pulled a lot of money into Russia prior to the attack, but that money won’t last forever.

[lagomorph777]

12. Yes. Cut off Russia's oil; enable it anywhere else we reasonably can.

Venezuela, Libya, ...?

[BobTheSubgenius]

7. The Ukranian resistance effectiveness and determination have been a wonderful surprise.

It's been more than could be asked of them, really. The logistical problems of the Russians, OTOH, have turned out as predicted. They neither were nor are prepared for a long, bitter incursion. They needed it to be over in a week or 10 days, but it shows signs of grinding on indefinitely.

What convinced me that we who held this thesis were right was that, according to local, on-the-ground reports of Russian soldiers doing next to nothing other than swilling vast quantities of vodka whenever they could (although that might have been localized, for all we know for sure), but more telling, going into the local markets to buy food with their own money.

And this was before the shooting started.

[gristy]

8. Ah, I kept wondering why Ukraine's opinion needed saving.

Then I went to the link...

"Biden's Bold Gamble Might Just Save Ukraine | Opinion"

[edhopper]

9. The Right and the Media

will never give him credit.

[bucolic_frolic]

10. Biden is not a risk taker

He's plumbed every angle and probed every possibility.