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Ukraine: How might the war end? Five scenarios
Putin ousted
And what of Vladimir Putin himself? When he launched his invasion, he declared: "We are ready for any outcome."
But what if that outcome was him losing power? It might seem unthinkable. Yet the world has changed in recent days and such things are now thought about. Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at Kings College, London, wrote this week: "It is now as likely that there will be regime change in Moscow as in Kyiv."
Why might he say this? Well, perhaps Mr Putin pursues a disastrous war. Thousands of Russian soldiers die. The economic sanctions bite. Mr Putin loses popular support. Perhaps there is the threat of popular revolution. He uses Russia's internal security forces to suppress that opposition. But this turns sour and enough members of Russia's military, political and economic elite turn against him. The West makes clear that if Putin goes and is replaced by a more moderate leader, then Russia will see the lifting of some sanctions and a restoration of normal diplomatic relations. There is a bloody palace coup and Putin is out. Again, this may not seem likely right now. But it may not be implausible if the people who have benefited from Mr Putin no longer believe he can defend their interests.
And what of Vladimir Putin himself? When he launched his invasion, he declared: "We are ready for any outcome."
But what if that outcome was him losing power? It might seem unthinkable. Yet the world has changed in recent days and such things are now thought about. Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at Kings College, London, wrote this week: "It is now as likely that there will be regime change in Moscow as in Kyiv."
Why might he say this? Well, perhaps Mr Putin pursues a disastrous war. Thousands of Russian soldiers die. The economic sanctions bite. Mr Putin loses popular support. Perhaps there is the threat of popular revolution. He uses Russia's internal security forces to suppress that opposition. But this turns sour and enough members of Russia's military, political and economic elite turn against him. The West makes clear that if Putin goes and is replaced by a more moderate leader, then Russia will see the lifting of some sanctions and a restoration of normal diplomatic relations. There is a bloody palace coup and Putin is out. Again, this may not seem likely right now. But it may not be implausible if the people who have benefited from Mr Putin no longer believe he can defend their interests.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60602936
Scenario #5 is the best case scenario.
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Ukraine: How might the war end? Five scenarios (Original Post)
BlueWavePsych
Mar 2022
OP
relayerbob
(6,544 posts)1. I'd put serious money on #5
Someone is working on it, right now, I would imagine. Money and opportunity will be the deciding factors.
Sneederbunk
(14,290 posts)2. Putin is removed, Russia withdraws and begs to have sanctions lifted.
OnDoutside
(19,956 posts)3. I think #2 is likely. Long war, and eventually bombings in Moscow
by Ukrainians taking it to the Russians.
El Supremo
(20,365 posts)4. #6
And that's the way the world ends.
BlueWavePsych
(2,635 posts)5. So long and thanks for all the fish.
3Hotdogs
(12,376 posts)6. Wasn't there some guy, Nikki K? They took him out of Moscow and bought him
a house on some lake and told him to fuck off.
We never heard from him again.
Maybe that'll happen to Pootie.