Some New Steps the West Might Try in Ukraine - Seib

[question everything]

(snip)

Other, less obvious options are available:

—Create what military leaders call a “bleeding ulcer” for Russian commanders by encouraging Russian military defections. The Russian army is filled with poorly-trained conscripts whose morale seems shaky. Former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis suggests working with European allies to guarantee a safe place and a new life in Europe for soldiers who cross over. That will hardly cripple Russian forces, but “it would be something that would scare the Russian officers” and add to morale problems, he says.

—Fast-track Ukrainian membership in the European Union, even as hostilities continue. The EU is an economic alignment rather than a military alliance, so membership there would undercut Mr. Putin’s argument that Ukraine’s desire to move westward is about creating a military threat to Russia. It also would put additional heft behind Ukraine in any negotiations.

—Set up an office for a Ukrainian government-in-exile somewhere in Europe. That would make clear to Mr. Putin that even a capture of the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv and the levers of government there won’t eradicate the current Ukrainian government. It will have an alternate address.

—Pass the defense appropriations bill in Congress. While the U.S. faces a grave security crisis, its own lawmakers have failed to pass a defense-spending bill for the current fiscal year, leaving the Pentagon running on autopilot. That’s an embarrassing signal to send to allies and adversaries alike, Mr. Mattis argues.

—Lean harder on the few nations that have influence over Mr. Putin to create a diplomatic avenue for escape. The list of credible intermediaries isn’t long, but it starts with China and includes Israel, which has maintained good ties with the Kremlin. If the pressure on Mr. Putin actually forces him to change course, he still needs a diplomatic off-ramp.

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/some-new-steps-the-west-might-try-in-ukraine-11646662680 (subscription)

[TygrBright]

1. If they're going to set up an office for a Ukrainian gov't in exile, may I suggest The Hague?

Something tells me that Ukraine's best legal and political talents will be spending quite a bit of time there in the near future.

thoughtfully,
Bright

[Eyeball_Kid]

2. IMO, there is no diplomatic off-ramp for Putin.

Diplomacy means that Putin is a failure. He presented this war as a morally righteous one. His POV is absolute. UKR is part of Russia. Period. There is no UKR. Therefore, the dictator can take it over at will. And he will. -- That's Putin's presentation of his issue with UKR. So anything less than a complete victory is not acceptable. That's why he's comfortable with killing civilians. They really aren't important. They're target practice-killing them is a step to complete control of UKR. They will resist if they are alive. Eliminating them is to Putin's advantage.

Putin sees himself as all-powerful. He doesn't make errors. That's why he's a dictator. So if he falters on a complete and thorough victory, he is not the "commander" he imagines himself to be, and he's not the commander whom his military and political staff assume that he is. If Putin negotiates, his stature diminishes to zero. He expects complete obedience, complete victory, complete power. Once he shows weakness, he exposes vulnerability. And that's when the sharks move in.

There is no peaceful transfer of power in Russia. So it must be done by force.