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Ukraine's first major counter-offensive!
Today was a bigger day for Ukraine than many realize.I can’t stress enough how big today was for Ukraine. Conducting their first major counter-offensive and moving 75 km in a day is huge. Let’s get into why, and what are the next occurrences to watch for. I’d like to also give a shout out to Lawrence for accurately predicting the first big move in Mykolaiv.
With defeats of Russians at Voznesensk and pushing them back past Posad-Pokrovskote, the Ukrainians have given themselves a giant morale booster, successfully tested the defensive capability of Russia, and are potentially cutting off Russian forces in Kryvyi Rih. I wish I knew the manner in which the push was achieved. Was it a straightforward push with Russian’s pulling back (or becoming a full rout) or did the Ukrainians bypass Russian forces and take Posad-Pokrovskote cutting off the Russians near Mykolaiv and capturing them?
Either way this is a defeat of what should have been the major Russian axis of advance in the south. A more competent Russian pincer would have used a minor diversionary assault in the East pinning Ukrainian forces in place while concentrating the majority of their forces on the Northern pincer from Belarus and the Southern pincer from Crimea. The Crimean pincer should have quickly focused on taking Kherson, Mykolaiv on to Odesa, then driving north to Kyiv. The port in Odesa would have been a major supply node for southern forces and is critically west of the Dnieper river. Odesa as a supply node would have meant less of the supply line occurring on land and more of it by ship on the Black Sea where the Russian Navy would have far less trouble protecting it than the hundreds of kilometers of spread out roads they have now. Even without taking the center of Kyiv, a Russian pincer where the North and South forces met would have cut off military supplies to the whole East. Russia would probably not have needed to control the whole Eastern half of Ukraine to force a favorable peace deal.
Instead, Ukraine is about to push the Russians out of Ukraine west of the Dnieper in the south. The bridges in the middle of the country over the Dnieper will continue to supply eastern Ukrainian forces and allow troop movement back and forth.
With defeats of Russians at Voznesensk and pushing them back past Posad-Pokrovskote, the Ukrainians have given themselves a giant morale booster, successfully tested the defensive capability of Russia, and are potentially cutting off Russian forces in Kryvyi Rih. I wish I knew the manner in which the push was achieved. Was it a straightforward push with Russian’s pulling back (or becoming a full rout) or did the Ukrainians bypass Russian forces and take Posad-Pokrovskote cutting off the Russians near Mykolaiv and capturing them?
Either way this is a defeat of what should have been the major Russian axis of advance in the south. A more competent Russian pincer would have used a minor diversionary assault in the East pinning Ukrainian forces in place while concentrating the majority of their forces on the Northern pincer from Belarus and the Southern pincer from Crimea. The Crimean pincer should have quickly focused on taking Kherson, Mykolaiv on to Odesa, then driving north to Kyiv. The port in Odesa would have been a major supply node for southern forces and is critically west of the Dnieper river. Odesa as a supply node would have meant less of the supply line occurring on land and more of it by ship on the Black Sea where the Russian Navy would have far less trouble protecting it than the hundreds of kilometers of spread out roads they have now. Even without taking the center of Kyiv, a Russian pincer where the North and South forces met would have cut off military supplies to the whole East. Russia would probably not have needed to control the whole Eastern half of Ukraine to force a favorable peace deal.
Instead, Ukraine is about to push the Russians out of Ukraine west of the Dnieper in the south. The bridges in the middle of the country over the Dnieper will continue to supply eastern Ukrainian forces and allow troop movement back and forth.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/3/17/2086623/-Today-was-a-bigger-day-for-Ukraine-than-many-realize
14 replies
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= new reply since forum marked as read
On the country the size of Texas? Oh, you gotta be kidding me.
a better plan, however. I just think we should keep clever strategies to ourselves. Ya know what I'm sayin'? 