To end Putin's war on Ukraine, think like a game theorist
(snip)
Baliga speculated that Putin never intended to invade Ukraine, which in his view explains Russia's poor military performance thus far. Instead, Baliga believes Putin expected to obtain concessions simply via threatening military action. Baliga also suggested that the sanctions response was well beyond what Putin could have anticipated, in large part because it was voluntary and uncoordinated (e.g., McDonalds pulling out of Russia).
In any case, Putin's current strategy appears to be a) hold back his conventional forces and bombard Ukraine into a "negotiated" settlement or b) bombard Ukraine into self-ethnic cleansing in which most Ukrainians flee the country. Under the first scenario, Ukraine would declare permanent neutrality, demilitarize, cede large swaths of Western Ukraine, including Crimea, to Russia and languish under Russia's constant threat of renewed terror. In short, Ukraine would become a vassal state.
(snip)
Regardless of which scenario is at play, both Baliga and Myerson agreed that more sanctions are needed. Germany and all other NATO members must immediately terminate all imports of gas, oil and anything else from Russia. We should also make clear to China and India that they can either trade with Russia or NATO countries, but not both.
(snip)
The game theorists believe Biden should quickly and publicly lay out the parameters of this deal. But the president should also make clear, as part of the same declaration, that there is a limit to NATO's tolerance of Putin's genocide. He needs to make clear immediately that the continued slaughter of Ukrainian civilians will lead to NATO's intervention.
(snip)
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/599264-to-end-putins-war-on-ukraine-think-like-a-game-theorist
relayerbob
(6,510 posts)Uncle Joe
(58,112 posts)game theory or Nobel Prize winners in that discipline.
Is Putin that crazy? No one knows. Has he overplayed his hand and is he now looking for an exit ramp? No one knows. Is he serious about recreating the Russian empire, his so-called Mother Russia? No one knows.
All we can do is develop the best strategy in light of the possible scenarios. In recent days, I've consulted with several game theorists, including a Nobel Prize winner for work in this field. Game theory is a framework for understanding choice in situations among competing players.
Several specialists felt that the mathematical formalism of game theory was too abstract to provide real direction. Others, particularly Sandeep Baliga, of Northwestern University, and Nobel Laureate Roger Myerson, of the University of Chicago, were eager to discuss alternative responses to Putin.
(snip)
President Biden needs to speak publicly and directly to Putin's generals and inform them that Russia's use of unconventional weapons will be viewed by the U.S. as equivalent to a nuclear attack and that they, personally, would be our first targets. Putin may be suicidal, but his generals are likely not. They need to understand in unequivocal terms their need to restrain Putin from actions that will get them killed.
Laurence Kotlikoff is professor of economics at Boston University and president of Economic Security Planning, Inc.
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/599264-to-end-putins-war-on-ukraine-think-like-a-game-theorist
Of course the Vice article itself is Internet opinion.
relayerbob
(6,510 posts)And frankly, see absolutely nothing new or subtantially different than what is actually being done. Lotsa words, not much useful content.
"Behind the glass and stone are men and women who spend their days Think Tanking. These are academics who politicians and journalists call to get opinions and knowledge."
Uncle Joe
(58,112 posts)relayerbob
(6,510 posts)Or the author's re-imagining what they are actually doing? As I said, "nothing new or substantially different than what is actually being done. Lotsa words, not much useful content."
I'll leave that to the people who are ACTUALLY engaging in the war and the diplomacy, and know what it REALLY going on. We are only seeing the tip of an iceberg that is being purposefully shrouded in disinformation on all sides.
Uncle Joe
(58,112 posts)are only seeing the tip of the iceberg.
For better or worse and personally I believe it's for the better, the Internet; as an entity knows infinitely more both pro, con, good and evil about most everything going on.
So I believe it's the responsibility for every person, no matter the nationality to contribute whatever they can in regards to their personal experience, training, education, ethics and even just moral opinion in shaping the character and IQ of the Internet.
The greater the number, the higher the IQ.
If the warriors and diplomats are competent, they know to take the best ideas and leave the rest.
relayerbob
(6,510 posts)And frankly, the response to Covid overall tells us a lot about the average IQ of the world.
Uncle Joe
(58,112 posts)It's still not the same as the entire Internet
The entire Internet transforms social consciousness, that's why China has theirs' blacked out and Putin is following suit, they're not afraid of OSINT, they're scared of the entire Internet and everyone having access.