Putin Doesn't Realize How Much Warfare Has Changed

[Uncle Joe]

By Antony Beevor

Otto von Bismarck once said that only a fool learns from his own mistakes. “I learn from other people’s,” the 19th-century German chancellor said. Astonishingly, the Russian army is repeating the past mistakes of its Soviet predecessor. In April 1945, Marshal Georgy Zhukov, under intense pressure from Stalin, sent his tank armies into Berlin without infantry support. Vladimir Putin’s forces not only made the same error; they even copied the way their forebears had attached odd bits of iron—including bed frames—to their tanks’ turrets in the hopes that the added metal would detonate anti-tank weapons prematurely. This did not save the Russian tanks. It simply increased their profile and attracted Ukrainian tank-hunting parties, just as the Soviet tanks in Berlin had drawn groups of Hitler Youth and SS, who attacked them with Panzerfausts.

The Russian president’s distorted obsession with history, especially with the “Great Patriotic War” against Germany, has skewed his political rhetoric with bizarre self-contradictions. It has clearly affected his military approach. Tanks were a great symbol of strength during the Second World War. That Putin can still see them that way defies belief. The vehicles have proved to be profoundly vulnerable to drones and anti-tank weapons in recent conflicts in Libya and elsewhere; Azerbaijan’s ability to destroy Armenian tanks easily was essential to its 2020 victory in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

(snip)

At Stalingrad in late 1942, the Red Army surprised itself and the world with a sudden turnaround, and there are indications that Putin’s forces are adjusting their tactics and preparing two major strategic envelopments, around Kyiv and in eastern Ukraine. An almost Stalinist determination to right the Russian military—backed by the execution of deserters and failing officers—could well extend the conflict in a bloodbath of relentless, grinding destruction.

Against all prewar expectations, though, a Russian military collapse also looks possible. A complete disintegration of morale could lead to a humiliating withdrawal, a potentially devastating result of Putin’s inability to part with the Soviet past.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-doesnt-realize-how-much-warfare-has-changed/627600/

[Thomas Hurt]

1. Not only that but I believe the corruption is rampant, the Russian leadership has...

gutted their military and its capabilities.

[Uncle Joe]

3. Precisely,

(snip)

Putin’s army is clearly not the Red Army, just as Putin’s Russia is not the Soviet Union. Institutional corruption across the government has affected everything, even with officers profiting off of the sale of spare parts and ignoring logistic support in favor of prestige projects. While Ukrainian defenders are destroying Cold War–era Russian T-72 tanks like ducks in a row, the Russian priority has been to reserve enough money to pay for the next generation of high-tech Armata tanks. Yet the Armata can still do little more than trundle across Red Square in Victory Day parades every May 9 to impress the crowds and foreign media. On the battlefield, it would suffer exactly the same fate as the T-72s.

(snip)

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-doesnt-realize-how-much-warfare-has-changed/627600/

[Igel]

6. The Red Army suffered catastrophic losses.

But it was huge and dedicated against an invading force. That Stalin had to say "not one step back" in Stalingrad and allegedly gave the orders to shoot on the spot any Russian soldiers who turned and retreated/fled from battle tells me that not *all* the soldiers were all that dedicated.

At the beginning of the war it was fubar. Stalin's agreement with Hitler was expected to have lasted a bit longer and nobody was ready for the German onslaught. Sacrificing Poland for Russian/Soviet survival? It's still the Russian Way to sacrifice others for one's own safety--not in the "I won't help them, my peeps first" sort of way, but literally, "Let's activity oppress and even kill them as human sacrifices to our security ... we got *our* priorities right."

More than one report has Stalin ordering divisions of tanks into battle. Then, and *only* then, did the generals admit that those tanks, produced in fulfillment of quotas and the 5-year plan, never actually got made. Production and military readiness reports were faked to keep the generals alive. They were vapor-divisions.

True anecdotes or not, dunno.

[OAITW r.2.0]

2. So, has Putin committed any T-14 tanks to the invasion?

These are supposedly the "next gen" hi-tech tanks that Russia has developed. Anyone know?

[Walleye]

4. It would be nice if they were on that ship it was sunk

[stonecutter357]

5. K&R !

[Martin68]

7. Good analysis.

Reminiscent of the Republican obsession with the defeat of Nazi Germany and Japan. They kept trying to repeat those victories, much like a serial killer trying to experience the same high he had with his first kill. Putin is living in the past, like all conservative authoritarians. Like Reagan, believing a return to past fantasies is possible. Putin has delusions of grandeur, and he supported generals who shared his belief in the invulnerability of Russian military might. After the defeat Russia suffered in Afghanistan, one would think he would have more respect for shoulder-fired anti-tank, anti-aircraft, and anti-ship weapons. But the US has also made the same mistake over and over again. IUDs bloodied us In Iraq and Afghanistan. Modern weapons require a re-calibration of tactics and strategy that old-school military people are slow to grasp.